Tropics to reignite in November with multiple storms in the forecast
November is the final month of the Atlantic hurricane season, and it won't end quietly with more storms in the forecast, including the potential for U.S. impacts from Florida through the Carolinas.
AccuWeather’s Alex DaSilva and Bernie Rayno urge caution as they expect one to three named storms develop from the tropics as we move further into the late stages of hurricane season.
November is the last month of the Atlantic hurricane season, but AccuWeather long-range forecasters are warning that more tropical trouble could be brewing, with one to three additional named storms predicted this year.
"We've been saying it since the very beginning of the hurricane season, even way back before when we made our initial forecast out in March, that we thought the end of the hurricane season could get quite active [in November]," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "We still think that right now."
He added that there is even a chance of tropical development in December. The last named tropical storm to occur in December was Olga in 2007.
What parts of the U.S. are at risk?
"We are concerned that areas, the entire state of Florida even up into the Carolinas, could be at risk of seeing another tropical impact this season," DaSilva explained "And of course, those areas are already very, very vulnerable from multiple hits this season."
There is a lower risk of impact farther west, including Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.
One of the factors behind the forecast is the amount of warm water that can fuel budding tropical storms. Ocean temperatures continue to run above the historical average across the Caribbean and most of the Atlantic Ocean. There are also pockets of warmer water in the Gulf of Mexico.
Another factor is the lack of disruptive winds, known as wind shear. When wind shear is low, a tropical storm can develop and strengthen more easily.
Next tropical threat
AccuWeather meteorologists have been monitoring the Caribbean for tropical development, with it looking likely that a named storm will form in the opening days of November.
"It wouldn't shock me if we're dealing with a hurricane potentially at one point early in November here," DaSilva added.
The next three names for tropical storms and hurricanes that develop across the Atlantic hurricane basin are Patty, Rafael and Sara.
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