Will flooding, storms play roles in swing states on Election Day 2024?
There will be some trouble spots in the United States for Election Day 2024 where weather disruptions and dangers may arise, AccuWeather forecasters say.
A man holding an umbrella arrives at a voting station, Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022, in Pacoima, Calif. (AP Photo/Ringo H.W. Chiu)
As recovery continues from the southern Appalachians to Florida in the wake of deadly and destructive Hurricanes Helene and Milton, weather conditions in these areas and over much of the United States will be benign for Election Day 2024. However, AccuWeather meteorologists are sounding the alert for adverse conditions that could deter some voters in the middle of the nation, including in some key swing states.
"The majority of voters are very dedicated and will find a way to get to the polls unless there is extreme weather going on such as a major snowstorm, torrential rainfall or severe thunderstorms," Senior Vice President of AccuWeather and President of State College, Pennsylvania Borough Council Evan Myers said.
Tuesday is the day to head to the polls to cast your vote for the presidential election. AccuWeather Senior Vice President Evan Myers explains the weather’s impact on Election Day.
The area where drenching rain occurs, thunderstorms erupt and downpours trigger localized flash flooding on Election Day, will depend on the track, speed and intensity of a storm and trailing cold front. This storm will traverse parts of the Rockies, Plains, Mississippi Valley and Upper Midwest.
While heavy snow will likely be winding down from Monday night to Tuesday morning over parts of the Rockies, locally flooding rain and severe thunderstorms will affect parts of the Mississippi Valley for the better part of next Tuesday.
That new storm system differs from the weather affecting the nation this past week. Still, both are signs of a change from abnormally dry to drought conditions that have been building since the summer.
"The storm will be swinging out from the central and southern Rockies to the Plains and Mississippi Valley as Tuesday progresses," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said.
Pastelok explained that the speed and position of the disruptive weather is not set in stone yet and could depend on other weather scenarios, such a brewing tropical storm in the Caribbean and the speed of an approaching storm in the Northwest.
For now, the zone from eastern Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi northward to Illinois and the presidential swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin are most likely to experience the greatest impacts from the storm.
Some precincts may be drenched by rain for multiple hours on Election Day. People who may have to wait in long lines outdoors will want to be prepared for the wet weather with waterproof shoes and umbrellas if not full rain gear.
Along with the intensity of the rain, which could trigger localized flash flooding and block some roads in part of the 1,500-mile-long zone, some of the thunderstorms from the mid-Mississippi Valley to the Gulf Coast could be robust, highly disruptive and potentially dangerous, Pastelok advised.
Even where the heaviest rain has shifted to the south and east, some communities over the southern Plains may still be dealing with the aftermath of significant flash flood damage that occurred during this weekend to Monday.
"Any thunderstorm will bring the potential of lightning strikes nearby that could trigger sporadic power outages and put people waiting outdoors at risk," Pastelok said, "As storms approach some of the polling locations, it could force people to step out of line, where they may have been waiting for hours, and seek shelter."
The timing of the thunderstorms from location to location will be key, and it will be important for people heading to the polls in the risk zone to monitor the weather situation closely. One part of the day may be drier than the other.
There is also the potential for a secondary area of precipitation to develop on the storm's cold side from eastern Colorado to Minnesota. This could occur if the second storm is much stronger and moving swiftly along. If this zone develops, some precipitation may fall as snow rather than rain. The same storm has the potential to drop significant snow in the Denver area from Monday to Monday night, just prior to Election Day.
Where it hasn't rained in a while, even a small amount of moisture on the roads can create extra slick conditions for motorists due to the remaining oily residue.
(Photo credit: Elijah Nouvelage/Getty Images)
AccuWeather meteorologists are also tracking a storm from the Pacific that will come in the early week. Its progress could determine whether rain arrives or departs western Washington and Oregon and spreads farther inland over the Northwest. That storm is likely to bring some high-elevation snow to the Cascades.
On a positive note, "voting in Washington is done by mail-in ballots and should not be affected by the weather," Myers said.
Depending on the forward speed and expansion of the storm system, some rain may enter parts of northern New England.
There are also 34 of the 100 U.S. Senate seats up for decision in this election, and at least a dozen in the Central states could be affected by some rain or thunderstorms on Nov. 5.
No rain or snow is in the forecast in the swing states of Arizona and Nevada, with nothing more than a few showers in North Carolina and Georgia.
"In areas of western North Carolina where temporary or different polling locations exist because of the devastation, people should not have to combat adverse weather conditions on Election Day," Pastelok said.
"At least 75% of the lower 48 states will be dry for Election Day, including the heavy population zones along the Interstate 95 corridor of the East and the West, including California and Arizona," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said.
It remains to be seen whether the upcoming weather conditions in the nation's middle are adverse enough to deter some voters from heading to the polls and possibly affect the election.
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