Storms bringing snow, flooding rain and severe weather across central, eastern US
A pair of potent storms will sweep from Texas to the Great Lakes into this weekend, bringing flooding rain, severe thunderstorms and snow that may disrupt travel for well over 100 million in the central and eastern U.S.
AccuWeather’s Ariella Scalese explains the different severe weather risks and the impacts for each intensity level. Severe thunderstorms can produce wind speeds that can be as strong as a hurricane.
A pair of storms sweeping from Texas to the Great Lakes over the weekend could bring travel problems due to snow, flooding rain and severe weather and threaten lives and property.
The storms late this week will affect at least 100 million more people than the clipper storms earlier in the week across the northern tier.
The storm duo will spread snow to areas in the West that have received little so far this winter. As they roll out from the interior Southwest, they will grab significant Gulf moisture before making a turn toward the Upper Midwest.
First storm impacts through Friday
The first storm of the pair will be the less intense of the two, but it will still pack drenching rain and thunderstorms. The risk of flash flooding with the first storm will be low, but ponding on roads and slick highways are likely from northeastern Texas to much of Michigan from into Thursday night.
"There is also the potential for ice jam flooding in portions of Wisconsin and Michigan due to the combination of thawing and heavy rainfall," AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said.
Throught Thursday night, thunderstorms from northern Louisiana to central Illinois and Indiana could be strong enough to produce damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes. There have been tornado warnings, and radar confirmed tornadoes in the Oklahoma City area on Thursday morning.
On the storm's colder, northwest side, an area of accumulating snow will unfold Thursday night.
Enough snow will fall to make travel slippery from north-central Iowa to the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. A narrow band of moderate to heavy snow is anticipated in the northern parts of Wisconsin and Michigan.
The first storm will finish up in the Northeast on Friday with mostly areas of rain and fog. Snow and ice will be limited to northern Maine with the bulk of wintry conditions in Quebec.
Second storm impacts from Friday to Sunday
The second of the storm duo will be the larger and stronger of the two. The storm’s strength will increase snowfall in colder areas and also intensify rain and thunderstorms where warmer air remains.
AccuWeather meteorologists are concerned that a plume of moisture will produce a swath of heavy rain from northeastern Louisiana and western Mississippi to southeastern Kentucky, the Virginia Panhandle and along the Tennessee–North Carolina border.
Heavy rainfall could cause flooding in urban and poorly drained areas, while hilly terrain may experience dangerous flash flooding in small streams, despite prior drought conditions. Rainfall of 1-4 inches will be widespread in this zone, with a very narrow zone where 4-8 inches may fall, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 10 inches. Most of this rain is expected to fall within 24-36 hours.
Severe thunderstorms are also in the offing, with AccuWeather meteorologists issuing a moderate risk of severe weather for Friday and Friday evening, affecting northeastern Louisiana and western and central Mississippi.
This area is surrounded by a broader zone where at least isolated severe thunderstorms are forecast from northeastern Texas to western Kentucky and middle Tennessee.
Within this zone, a few tornadoes are possible, along with the likelihood of storms packing damaging wind gusts and hail. Some thunderstorms may reach as far north as the Great Lakes region Friday.
"The risk of tornadoes in portions of Mississippi and Louisiana on Friday extends well into the nighttime hours, which will add to the danger," AccuWeather Lead Storm Warning Meteorologist Tristan Irish said.
The potential for severe thunderstorms and the likelihood of some thunder and lightning will shift toward the Atlantic Seaboard of the Northeast Saturday.
As the second storm moves toward the Great Lakes region, it will tap into fresh cold air. This will cause snow on the northern and western fringe to wrap in closer to the center of the storm around the Great Lakes.
Depending on the extent of the cold air, Milwaukee and Minneapolis have the potential to receive 1-3 inches of snow, resulting in significant travel problems from Saturday to Saturday night. A sweep of dry air may prevent much snow from falling on Detroit, but snow showers Sunday could make for slippery conditions.
Enough snow may fall in the Chicago metro area to cause slippery travel conditions, including airline delays, from late Saturday night to Sunday.
The heaviest snow is most likely to fall in areas of northern Michigan that have had no shortage of the fluffy stuff in recent weeks from clipper storms and lake effect. A general snowfall of 6–12 inches is likely across northern Michigan, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 18 inches where the Great Lakes enhance snowfall.
Both storms are expected to bring rain from Washington, D.C., to New York City and Boston.
The rain from Saturday to Saturday night will be heavy enough to lead to areas of urban and poor drainage area flooding from central Virginia and Washington, D.C., to New York City and southern New England. Motorists and airline passengers should expect travel delays. Those venturing into New York City on daytrips should be prepared for downpours and splashes from passing vehicles.
Changes taking place next week could bring snow much closer to the Interstate 95 corridor of the Northeast.
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