Drought to downpours: Rain could trigger flooding in Central US
Heavy rain and thunderstorms are beginning to blossom across parts of the central United States, raising the flood risk in areas facing drought conditions.
The Plains and Upper Midwest regions of the U.S. face the risk of severe thunderstorms and even tornadoes in the middle of this week with additional flood and hail potential.
A predominantly dry pattern that has persisted since the summer over the central United States is starting to change from mainly dry to a siege of wet weather that may span multiple days, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
A recent storm has already sent some low-elevation rain and mountain snow across the Intermountain West. It will set off severe thunderstorms from the Plains through Wednesday night to the Mississippi Valley on Thursday.
Temperatures will continue to surge to unusually high levels for late October, and gusty winds will boost the wildfire risk due to the bone-dry landscape.
Starting this weekend and throughout next week, a pattern will be set up that allows for areas of rain to develop and repeat from parts of the Plains to a portion of the Midwest.
While not enough rain is likely to trigger river flooding or completely erase the widespread nature of drought in the region, some short-term progress in soil moisture can occur. Enough rain may fall at a highly local level to trigger urban flooding and perhaps even flash flooding of small streams in a few cases.
At least 2 inches of rain can fall from southwestern Wisconsin and western Illinois to Oklahoma and far northern Texas Saturday to Tuesday. Higher totals of 8-12 inches are expected across portions of eastern Kansas, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 18 inches.
AccuWeather will provide more information on which areas of the country may experience adverse weather conditions, including rain, for Election Day.
River, lake and reservoir levels are typically low this time of the year, but this year, as has been the case in recent years during the autumn, levels are extremely low compared to the historical average.
Cities such as Dallas and Kansas City, Missouri, for example, have received only about 30% of their historical average rainfall since the start of August.
Water levels on the central and lower part of the Mississippi River are on par with low marks set during the last two years. For example, in Memphis, Tennessee, water levels are forecast to dip within a foot of record low marks set a little over a year ago. That record low level is minus 12.04 feet, set on Oct. 17, 2023.
The Mississippi River is a major transportation route and is normally inexpensive for various products. When water levels are this low, tug and barge traffic on the waterway is limited due to the narrow shipping channel and shallow water, which could cause ships to run aground. With fewer tugs pulling fewer barges and lighter cargo, shipping is much less cost-efficient, and those costs may be pushed along to the consumer.
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