Tropical Storm Lisa could soon form in Caribbean Sea
A new tropical system has emerged in the Caribbean Sea, and AccuWeather forecasters say that it could become a hurricane before making landfall in the opening days of November.
The tropical Atlantic is showing no signs of taking a long winter’s nap just yet. AccuWeather meteorologists say that lingering tropical activity is forecast well into November in parts of the Atlantic as well as the Caribbean Sea.
The chance that a system near Bermuda could become a tropical depression or storm had diminished substantially as of Saturday due to disruptive winds and the disturbance’s projected path over progressively cooler waters. Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin, one system is taking shape that is poised to become the next named system of the season.
A tropical rainstorm in the Caribbean Sea, dubbed Potential Tropical Cyclone 15 by the National Hurricane Center, developed on Sunday afternoon. As of 5 a.m. EDT Monday, the system was located 160 miles south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.
This image reveals Potential Tropical Cyclone 15 over the Caribbean Sea on Monday, Oct. 31, 2022. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ satellite)
The tropical rainstorm could evolve into a tropical storm once a well-defined center of circulation forms around a low pressure area, at which point it would be given a name. The next name that would be used to identify a storm in the Atlantic basin is Lisa.
Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for Jamaica and Grand Cayman Island. The developing system has been rated as less than one on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in the Caribbean and a 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in Central America.
Water temperatures in the 80s and low disruptive winds in the atmosphere could be enough to slowly nurture this tropical rainstorm and allow development as it moves westward. It is possible that the system intensifies into a hurricane with winds between 74 and 95 miles per hour before making landfall in Central America late Wednesday or early Thursday.
AccuWeather forecasters say that the system is unlikely to track northward toward the United States due to strong winds and a belt of high pressure. As long as these conditions hold on, the most likely path for the system will be west and into Central America.
People in Central America should closely monitor the tropical rainstorm as at the very least, there is likely to be an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity by the middle of the week. The stronger that this system becomes, the more severe of an impact that it will have on Central America in terms of wind, coastal flooding and heavy rainfall.
Since the middle of October, AccuWeather has been highlighting the end of October and the first two weeks of November as a time to watch out for more tropical systems to spin up before the official end of the Atlantic hurricane season on Nov. 30.
Later Caribbean development could become a concern for Florida
In the wake of the strengthening Caribbean system, there is a chance of additional development in the same body of water where water temperatures are bathlike. At the same time, weather systems farther north will change and shift position.
Long-range forecasters say that the Caribbean Sea will remain unsettled from the first to second weeks of November with the potential for showers and thunderstorms to organize into one or more tropical systems.
"Any tropical system that develops in the western part of the Caribbean beyond [this] week could be trouble for the (southeastern) U.S. and, more specifically, Florida," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
"It looks like there will be a pronounced dip in the jet stream in the Western states, and at the same time, an area of high pressure will build near Bermuda next weekend," Rayno explained.
If development occurs farther to the east in the Caribbean, meteorologists say that there would be concerns for impacts from a tropical system that could shift away from Florida and toward the eastern Caribbean islands.
For example, a system that tries to organize in the western Caribbean next week might have an opportunity to move northward across Cuba and toward Florida. On the other hand, if a system tries to organize in the eastern Caribbean next week, it could still be steered northeastward or perhaps toward the northeastern islands from Puerto Rico to the Leewards.
The area from the Caribbean to the waters off the southern Atlantic coast of the U.S. is the prime zone for tropical development during the first half of November. Increasing westerly winds over North America tend to steer most of these systems away from the U.S. However, there is some risk from a climatological standpoint alone for the Florida Peninsula, should tropical development occur in the western Caribbean, which is possible starting late this week.
As of Oct. 30, there have been two tropical depressions, six tropical storms and five hurricanes in the Atlantic. The only two major hurricanes -- Fiona and Ian -- were systems that originated in the Caribbean. Both reached Category 4 intensity. Ian's maximum sustained winds peaked at 155 mph just prior to striking southwestern Florida and causing a significant loss of life and great destruction in late September.
With 11 named systems as of late October and a little more than a month to go, the 2022 season is running slightly below the average for this time of year of 13 named systems. However, given the current outlook for the basin over the next couple of weeks, there is potential to catch back up to that number.
Over the course of the year, there are typically 14 named systems, of which seven become hurricanes and three reach major hurricane strength of Category 3 or greater. Hurricane season does not officially end until Nov. 30.
The next three names that could be used to identify storms during the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season are Lisa, Martin and Nicole.
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