Idalia to unleash torrential rainfall, damaging winds well inland after its strike as a hurricane
AccuWeather hurricane experts are predicting dangerous storm surge, heavy rainfall and gusty winds from western Florida to the Carolinas and perhaps farther north as Idalia tracks into the U.S.
Ahead of Idalia's arrival, evacuation zones have been established for residents along the west coast of Florida and across the barrier islands. AccuWeather hurricane experts say that extreme impacts can occur from Idalia across the Big Bend of Florida with the storm expected to make landfall on Wednesday morning.
However, some impacts can be felt along nearly the entire western coast of the state from Panama City to Key West once wind and rain begin to spread onshore -- and even much farther inland across parts of the Southeast and mid-Atlantic as Idalia treks across the region and back out to sea.
A state of emergency has been issued for 46 counties across Florida by Gov. Ron DeSantis as Idalia continues to track closer to the western Florida coastline. To put that into perspective, that is nearly 70% of the Sunshine State, covering high population centers such as St. Petersburg, Tampa and Fort Myers, Florida.
Forecasters say that Idalia is expected to make landfall as a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (sustained winds between 111 and 129 mph), but there is some risk that the storm could intensify further prior to landfall.
"It is not out of the realm of possibilities that Idalia could intensify to a Category 4 hurricane (sustained winds between 130 and 157 mph) as it tracks into north-central Florida around midweek," explained AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
Given this potential, experts strongly recommend that residents across western and northern Florida should take extreme caution and adhere to any evacuations and safety warnings from officials.
Impacts to be felt far inland from Idalia's landfall
As Idalia approaches the coast of the United States and tracks inland, bands of heavy rain and damaging winds will spread across western and northern Florida from early to late week. Rainfall totals can range between 4 and 8 inches across the Big Bend through southern and eastern Georgia, eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina through Thursday.
The storm is forecast to track northeastward through southern Georgia and eventually off the coast of the Carolinas by the end of the week, spreading rain, wind and even coastal impacts as far north as the mid-Atlantic. A large swath of 4-8 inches can reach from Tampa to Apalachicola, Florida, and spread inland through the Outer Banks of North Carolina.
Four to 8 inches of rain is expected to span across a large portion of the Southeast coastline with 2-4 inches expected to dampen regions as far inland as central Georgia, western South Carolina and central North Carolina. Cities such as Charlotte and Raleigh, North Carolina, are likely to observe a few inches of rain as Idalia moves along the Carolina coasts before gradually curving northeastward over the Atlantic Ocean.
Idalia's wind impacts
Peak wind gusts of 40-60 mph can expand from the Gulf Coast of Florida through the eastern Carolinas, which can result in localized damage, downed trees and power lines. Once the storm begins to move northeastward over southeastern Georgia and into the Atlantic, gusts can blow between 60 and 80 mph through the central coast of South Carolina.
A swath of 80- to 100-mph peak wind gusts can expand across regions from Savannah, Georgia, to coastal locations just northwest of Tampa, Florida. A tight corridor along the northeastern path of Idalia's landfall point can face wind gusts between 100 and 120 mph as the storm nears the coast and moves onshore.
Based on the current track of Idalia and anticipated landfall location, the most intense wind gusts of major-hurricane-strength winds between 120 and 140 mph can impact coastal locations roughly 100 miles north of Tampa on the eastern side of the storm's circulation. Often the strongest winds are in the right front quadrant of a moving storm to the right of the cyclone's eyewall.
Residents of Tampa may be feeling a sense of déjà vu from last year's Hurricane Ian as they prepare for impacts from Idalia, although there are some notable differences between the two tropical features. Ian made landfall roughly 75 miles south of Tampa, on the barrier island of Cayo Costa and again near Punta Gorda, Florida, rather than to the north of the city as Idalia is forecast to do.
Meteorologists explain that impacts from a landfalling tropical cyclone can vary greatly depending on whether you are on the western or eastern side of the storm's center. In the case of Hurricane Ian, the storm surge at Old Port Tampa reached levels of 1.09 feet, according to the official summary report from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). But with Idalia, a much higher storm surge is expected.
Power outages are a concern as Idalia crosses Florida and moves into the waters off the southeastern Atlantic Coast. The most widespread outages will be confined to northern Florida and southeastern Georgia, with days-long outages possible near where the hurricane makes landfall. Regional and localized power outages may extend as far northward as the Outer Banks of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia.
Life-threatening storm surge expected
Although the center of Idalia will track north of Tampa and could make landfall several miles farther away from the city than Ian did, AccuWeather meteorologists warn that the storm surge could be far more impactful.
Experts warn that storm surge is one of the deadliest factors when a tropical cyclone makes landfall, and locations can be impacted differently by storm surge based on the outline of the coast.
"The height of the storm surge is also dictated by the shape of the coast," Kottlowski said, citing differences between a concave coast versus a convex, or almost straight, coast. If the coast has more of an abrupt slope and is oriented more in a straight line, it will disperse the water, leading to a lower storm surge, explained Kottlowski.
A storm surge of 1-3 feet can occur along most of the west coast of Florida, in addition to the coasts of far northeastern Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. As Idalia remains at hurricane strength as it moves offshore from southeastern Georgia, a storm surge of 3-6 feet can impact coastal locations from Jacksonville, Florida, to Charleston, South Carolina.
Even locations just south of Virginia Beach, Virginia, can face some degree of storm surge, wind and drenching rainfall later this week as Idalia tracks northeastward along the coast and swerves eastward to the open Atlantic waters. AccuWeather forecasters urge interests and beachgoers along the East Coast to monitor the track and projected impacts of Idalia.
A frontal boundary sprawling across the Northeast will make for a damp pattern into the middle of this week before high pressure builds across the region and promotes drier conditions from Pennsylvania to Maine.
Rainfall is expected to arrive across the Carolinas by early Wednesday as tropical moisture is pulled northward ahead of the storm. Regions of southeastern Virginia could observe rain arriving from Idalia as early as Wednesday evening.
By later this week into this weekend, Idalia is on track to shift off the Southeast coast and advance north of Bermuda, where it can spread some wind and rain to the islands. High pressure expected to be situated over the Northeast later this week will help to keep the region mainly dry and guide the storm offshore.
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