Final days of summer 2025 to bring heat and expanding drought in eastern, central US
A storm with tropical traits will bring heavy rain and coastal flooding to part of the Atlantic Coast, while much of the Central and Eastern U.S. remains dry amid expanding drought and late summer warmth.
As we head into the midweek, a coastal storm will soak the mid-Atlantic states from Virginia to Pennsylvania with heavy rainfall. The coastal region will face the risk of rough surf and rip currents.
Much of the eastern half of the nation will be free of rain during the last official days of summer, with the exception of a coastal storm that will douse a zone of the Atlantic Seaboard.
Coastal storm bringing conditions similar to a tropical depression
“The storm swirling along the mid-Atlantic coast is unleashing several inches of rain on parts of coastal North Carolina and Virginia," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
Washington, D.C., and portions of eastern Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey will be thoroughly soaked. Rain will dampen Philadelphia and New York City as well.
"The storm is generating rough surf and strong rip currents from the Outer Banks to southern New Jersey. Coastal inundation of 1–2 feet is possible at high tide. Heavy rain may lead to localized urban flooding inland," DaSilva said.
While the rain may be much-needed, the storm will bring gusty winds, thunderstorms and more erosion on the beaches from North Carolina to New Jersey.
Away from the reaches of the coastal storm, weather conditions are markedly different. In most areas from Maine to northern Florida, westward to just about the Mississippi River, the weather is dry and warm, and it will stay that way for days.
Summer 2025 hangs on
Summer 2025 officially ends on Monday, Sept. 22, but it appears to be continuing almost to the very last minute in many Central and Eastern states.
Sunshine will boost temperatures to 5-15 degrees above the historical average in most areas west of the Appalachians to the Mississippi River through the balance of this week. Widespread highs in the 80s are in store for the Midwest, with far-reaching highs in the 90s from St. Louis and Nashville to New Orleans, Houston and San Antonio. A few spots may approach daily record highs.
Thunderstorms are responsible for most of the rainfall during the summer. During the middle to late part of autumn, larger storm systems tend to bring most of the rain as thunderstorms become scarce. In between, from mid-August to October, extended dry spells like the one in progress over much of the Central and Eastern states are not uncommon.
As an exception, there will be spotty thunderstorms centered around Tennessee during the afternoon and evening hours into midweek.
Low humidity levels, which are more in tune with autumn, will be one exception to the conditions that have occurred most of this summer.
A storm from the Plains will attempt to disrupt the dry air late this week, bringing at least sporadic showers and thunderstorms to portions of the Mississippi Valley. Some of the storms may be severe, with gusty winds and hail.
While drought conditions in the Central and Eastern states are not as severe as in many western areas, abnormally dry and drought conditions are becoming more extensive.
The dry conditions may accelerate the seasonal leaf drop in some areas where trees have been stressed by the drought.
The drought, which began in midsummer, has caused water tables to drop, many small streams to dry up, and some rivers to become very shallow.
Water levels plunge on the Mississippi River
Water levels along stretches of the Mississippi River, which is used extensively for mass transport of materials and grains, are reaching critically low levels for full-scale tug and barge operations.
The narrowing and shallowing of the shipping channel is reducing the number of barges that can be safely pushed up and down the waterway. While not quite at record lows, many of which were set two to four years ago, waters along portions of the Mississippi River are dipping to levels rarely seen.
This graph shows the National Weather Service hydrological forecast (in feet) for the Mississippi River level at New Madrid, Missouri. Negative gauge readings can occur due to dredging and scouring of the riverbed since the gauge was installed.
AccuWeather's long-range team expects occasional rounds of rain in the headwaters of the Mississippi River over the Upper Midwest to sustain some flow, but unless a large tropical storm moves northward through the basin, levels will continue to drop before any chance of improvement over the winter.
There are some signs that rain from either a storm from Canada or the tropics may arrive in parts of the Eastern states before the end of September.
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