East Pacific turning active as tropical Atlantic remains quiet
By
Renee Duff, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Updated Jul 16, 2021 9:04 AM EST
Following Elsa's lengthy tour from the Caribbean to Atlantic Canada, tropical activity in the Atlantic basin has come to a halt, while the opposite is happening in the East Pacific.
"Elsa, after spending more than a week in the basin, finally faded away over the northern Atlantic Ocean as of Sunday. In its wake there are currently no organized tropical systems in the basin," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller said.
Still, Miller noted a couple of areas that are being monitored. One of those is the southern Atlantic Ocean where several tropical waves are traveling from east to west. Under the right environment, these clusters of showers and thunderstorms can organize into a tropical depression or storm.
On this image taken on Thursday afternoon, July 15, 2021, no organized tropical systems existed over the Atlantic basin. A couple of swirls of clouds near Bermuda were being monitored for gradual potential development in the long term. (CIRA at Colorado State/GOES-East)
Elsa formed from what was once a tropical wave that emerged off the western coast of Africa.
However, AccuWeather meteorologists are not expecting any new named storms to emerge from these waves in the short term.
"Due to the presence of dry air and wind shear, these tropical waves are not expected to develop through at least this week," Miller said.
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Another zone being monitored for development this weekend to early next week is within several hundred miles of Bermuda.
An area of non-tropical low pressure centered in the middle layers of the atmosphere was drifting westward through the Atlantic in the zone just south of Bermuda.
"This feature will move over some relatively warm waters may try to organize better, but support for tropical development of this feature remains quite low at this point," Miller said.
There is another feature north of Bermuda that is attached to an old frontal zone. If this feature manages to detach from the front and survive, there is a very low chance of slow organization, but water temperatures are marginal for development at this time.
AccuWeather meteorologists are forecasting 16-20 named systems for the Atlantic basin for the 2021 season with seven to 10 hurricanes and up to five direct impacts on the United States. So far, Claudette, Danny and Elsa have all impacted the U.S.
Tropical activity ramping up in the East Pacific
Although all remains quiet in the Atlantic at least in the short term, the East Pacific basin has sprung back to life with the formation of Tropical Storm Felicia, which strengthened from a tropical depression early Wednesday about 650 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico.
Felicia further strengthened to a hurricane early Thursday morning, and a second hurricane may be added to the shortlist of such storms this season in the coming days.
Enrique, which prowled the waters in late June, was the most recently named storm in the basin and also the year's first hurricane for either the Atlantic or East Pacific.
Felicia was packing maximum sustained winds of 115 mph and moving toward the west at 9 mph as of Friday morning. The makes Felicia the first major hurricane of the season, which is a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 111-129 mph.
Felicia is expected to continue to move to the west-northwest well to the southwest of the Baja Peninsula into this weekend.
"While no direct impacts to land are anticipated, Felicia may help generate some large swells and rough surf to coastal areas of Baja California Sur," Miller said.
The second area of interest is located farther to the east, where an area of low pressure is expected to develop to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the latter part of this week or this weekend.
"Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for tropical development of this second system, and a tropical depression or storm could form later this week," Miller said, adding that the potential for tropical development was high with this feature.
After Felicia, the next tropical storm in the basin will acquire the name Guillermo.
On this image captured Thursday, July 15, 2021, Felicia can be seen left of center while a budding tropical system was evident right of center, south of the coast of Mexico. (CIRA at Colorado State/GOES-West)
It is possible that if Felicia remains a hurricane while the next system ramps up, there may be two hurricanes spinning in the Eastern Pacific at the same time. However, Felicia may begin to weaken before that second system reaches hurricane status.
Shipping interests should closely monitor the strength and track of both systems, however, as nearby waters can turn rough.
AccuWeather meteorologists are predicting 14-18 named storms in the Eastern Pacific this season with six to 10 expected to become hurricanes.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.
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News / Hurricane
East Pacific turning active as tropical Atlantic remains quiet
By Renee Duff, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Updated Jul 16, 2021 9:04 AM EST
Following Elsa's lengthy tour from the Caribbean to Atlantic Canada, tropical activity in the Atlantic basin has come to a halt, while the opposite is happening in the East Pacific.
"Elsa, after spending more than a week in the basin, finally faded away over the northern Atlantic Ocean as of Sunday. In its wake there are currently no organized tropical systems in the basin," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller said.
Still, Miller noted a couple of areas that are being monitored. One of those is the southern Atlantic Ocean where several tropical waves are traveling from east to west. Under the right environment, these clusters of showers and thunderstorms can organize into a tropical depression or storm.
On this image taken on Thursday afternoon, July 15, 2021, no organized tropical systems existed over the Atlantic basin. A couple of swirls of clouds near Bermuda were being monitored for gradual potential development in the long term. (CIRA at Colorado State/GOES-East)
Elsa formed from what was once a tropical wave that emerged off the western coast of Africa.
However, AccuWeather meteorologists are not expecting any new named storms to emerge from these waves in the short term.
"Due to the presence of dry air and wind shear, these tropical waves are not expected to develop through at least this week," Miller said.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
Another zone being monitored for development this weekend to early next week is within several hundred miles of Bermuda.
An area of non-tropical low pressure centered in the middle layers of the atmosphere was drifting westward through the Atlantic in the zone just south of Bermuda.
"This feature will move over some relatively warm waters may try to organize better, but support for tropical development of this feature remains quite low at this point," Miller said.
There is another feature north of Bermuda that is attached to an old frontal zone. If this feature manages to detach from the front and survive, there is a very low chance of slow organization, but water temperatures are marginal for development at this time.
AccuWeather meteorologists are forecasting 16-20 named systems for the Atlantic basin for the 2021 season with seven to 10 hurricanes and up to five direct impacts on the United States. So far, Claudette, Danny and Elsa have all impacted the U.S.
Tropical activity ramping up in the East Pacific
Although all remains quiet in the Atlantic at least in the short term, the East Pacific basin has sprung back to life with the formation of Tropical Storm Felicia, which strengthened from a tropical depression early Wednesday about 650 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico.
Felicia further strengthened to a hurricane early Thursday morning, and a second hurricane may be added to the shortlist of such storms this season in the coming days.
Enrique, which prowled the waters in late June, was the most recently named storm in the basin and also the year's first hurricane for either the Atlantic or East Pacific.
Felicia was packing maximum sustained winds of 115 mph and moving toward the west at 9 mph as of Friday morning. The makes Felicia the first major hurricane of the season, which is a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 111-129 mph.
Felicia is expected to continue to move to the west-northwest well to the southwest of the Baja Peninsula into this weekend.
"While no direct impacts to land are anticipated, Felicia may help generate some large swells and rough surf to coastal areas of Baja California Sur," Miller said.
The second area of interest is located farther to the east, where an area of low pressure is expected to develop to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the latter part of this week or this weekend.
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"Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for tropical development of this second system, and a tropical depression or storm could form later this week," Miller said, adding that the potential for tropical development was high with this feature.
After Felicia, the next tropical storm in the basin will acquire the name Guillermo.
On this image captured Thursday, July 15, 2021, Felicia can be seen left of center while a budding tropical system was evident right of center, south of the coast of Mexico. (CIRA at Colorado State/GOES-West)
It is possible that if Felicia remains a hurricane while the next system ramps up, there may be two hurricanes spinning in the Eastern Pacific at the same time. However, Felicia may begin to weaken before that second system reaches hurricane status.
Shipping interests should closely monitor the strength and track of both systems, however, as nearby waters can turn rough.
AccuWeather meteorologists are predicting 14-18 named storms in the Eastern Pacific this season with six to 10 expected to become hurricanes.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo