Multiple Atlantic tropical systems keeping forecasters on alert
By
Courtney Travis, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Aug 24, 2021 1:37 PM EDT
|
Updated Aug 26, 2021 2:15 PM EDT
A strengthening area of tropical low pressure is seen across the Caribbean Sea on Aug. 25, 2021 was upgraded to Tropical Depression Nine on Aug. 26.
The peak of hurricane season remains active and AccuWeather meteorologists are keeping an eye on two active additional tropical features in the Atlantic basin that could develop following the formation of Tropical Depression Nine in the coming days, but if nothing else, they are keeping the weather maps crowded.
AccuWeather forecasters were monitoring two other tropical disturbances that could become the next named systems in the Atlantic basin in the next few days. Tropical Depression Nine, currently in the Caribbean, is forecast to ramp up into a major hurricane upon entering the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, while two disturbances were over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean.
"As of Thursday, the tropical depression over the Caribbean is of the most immediate concern for impacts to land, life and property," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
Elsewhere over the Atlantic, the skies are teeming with activity -- and not just of the tropical variety. Large amounts of Saharan dust have been wafting off the northwest coast of Africa in recent days, some of which reached South Florida over the weekend, making for milky sunsets.
Satellite imagery Tuesday showed clouds of dust in both areas where tropical activity is brewing.
And about that tropical activity, Sosnowski also pointed out two other features far out over the Atlantic are brewing but will also have some atmospheric hurdles to overcome in order to reach tropical storm force, and thereby be given a name.
These three could become the next named tropical storms in the basin. The next names on the 2021 Atlantic basin list are Ida, Julian and Kate.
A satellite image showing the confluence of Saharan dust and brewing tropical activity over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean on Aug. 24, 2021. (CIRA / RAMMB)
(CIRA / RAMMB)
One of those central Atlantic tropical features is about 650 miles east-southeast of Bermuda and moving northwestward. The exact timing of a cold front sweeping through the western Atlantic will determine how close this tropical low can get to Bermuda, though at this point it look as if this will remain to the east of the nation.
This this feature is entrenched in dry, dusty air, it can develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm later this week or into the weekend.
Another tropical wave in the Atlantic Ocean, as of early Thursday morning, was located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. The position of the tropical wave, almost near the equator, could play a role in its chances of strengthening.
"The current problem with this easternmost feature is how close it is to the equator," Sosnowski added, "In this part of the ocean, several other physical forces, in addition to nearby dry air, make strengthening less likely unless it is able to drift hundreds of miles northward."
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Depending on how fast the tropical wave moves, this northward jog could take several days to occur.
Of the three tropical features currently across the Atlantic and Caribbean, this is the least likely to develop into a tropical storm in the next several days.
As this feature moves northwestward across the basin in the coming days, AccuWeather meteorologists say that the chances of impacting the United States, as of Thursday, are rather unlikely.
Yet another disturbance is forecast to move off the coast of Africa late this weekend to early next week. There is a chance for this system to travel farther to the west than the current two features over the central Atlantic, especially if it manages to develop shortly after moving off shore of Africa.
Following Henri's deluge across the Northeast, a change in the weather pattern is expected this week, which is likely to bring a different outcome.
"Both central Atlantic features are likely to be blocked from traveling too close to North America. This is due to the position of a high pressure system near Bermuda and a forecast ripple in the atmosphere that would create southerly steering breezes near the Lesser Antilles," Sosnowski said.
While the official start of the Atlantic basin hurricane season is June 1, most of the storms tend to develop later in the summer and early fall. The peak of the season is considered to occur from mid-August to late September or early October.
According to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, approximately 80 percent of tropical storms and hurricanes form in a 45-day window of mid-August to late September, due to the ripe atmospheric conditions in the basin.
That has already been evident so far this year, when Tropical Storm Fred, Hurricane Grace and Hurricane Henri all formed in less than a week, from Aug. 11 to Aug.17.
So far in 2021, the Atlantic tropical season has been well ahead of normal. Henri became a named storm on Aug. 17, a staggering 38 days ahead of the normal "H" storm's formation on Sept. 24. Despite this, this tropical season is still running behind last year's record-shattering hurricane season, which produced Tropical Storm Hanna on July 24.
Even if all three of the tropical features currently being monitored in the Atlantic basin were to be named in the next couple of days, it would still be at least a week behind the pacing of the 2020 season - this time last year, there were already 13 named storms.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.
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News / Hurricane
Multiple Atlantic tropical systems keeping forecasters on alert
By Courtney Travis, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Aug 24, 2021 1:37 PM EDT | Updated Aug 26, 2021 2:15 PM EDT
A strengthening area of tropical low pressure is seen across the Caribbean Sea on Aug. 25, 2021 was upgraded to Tropical Depression Nine on Aug. 26.
The peak of hurricane season remains active and AccuWeather meteorologists are keeping an eye on two active additional tropical features in the Atlantic basin that could develop following the formation of Tropical Depression Nine in the coming days, but if nothing else, they are keeping the weather maps crowded.
AccuWeather forecasters were monitoring two other tropical disturbances that could become the next named systems in the Atlantic basin in the next few days. Tropical Depression Nine, currently in the Caribbean, is forecast to ramp up into a major hurricane upon entering the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, while two disturbances were over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean.
"As of Thursday, the tropical depression over the Caribbean is of the most immediate concern for impacts to land, life and property," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
Elsewhere over the Atlantic, the skies are teeming with activity -- and not just of the tropical variety. Large amounts of Saharan dust have been wafting off the northwest coast of Africa in recent days, some of which reached South Florida over the weekend, making for milky sunsets.
Satellite imagery Tuesday showed clouds of dust in both areas where tropical activity is brewing.
And about that tropical activity, Sosnowski also pointed out two other features far out over the Atlantic are brewing but will also have some atmospheric hurdles to overcome in order to reach tropical storm force, and thereby be given a name.
These three could become the next named tropical storms in the basin. The next names on the 2021 Atlantic basin list are Ida, Julian and Kate.
A satellite image showing the confluence of Saharan dust and brewing tropical activity over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean on Aug. 24, 2021. (CIRA / RAMMB)
One of those central Atlantic tropical features is about 650 miles east-southeast of Bermuda and moving northwestward. The exact timing of a cold front sweeping through the western Atlantic will determine how close this tropical low can get to Bermuda, though at this point it look as if this will remain to the east of the nation.
This this feature is entrenched in dry, dusty air, it can develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm later this week or into the weekend.
Another tropical wave in the Atlantic Ocean, as of early Thursday morning, was located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. The position of the tropical wave, almost near the equator, could play a role in its chances of strengthening.
"The current problem with this easternmost feature is how close it is to the equator," Sosnowski added, "In this part of the ocean, several other physical forces, in addition to nearby dry air, make strengthening less likely unless it is able to drift hundreds of miles northward."
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
Depending on how fast the tropical wave moves, this northward jog could take several days to occur.
Of the three tropical features currently across the Atlantic and Caribbean, this is the least likely to develop into a tropical storm in the next several days.
As this feature moves northwestward across the basin in the coming days, AccuWeather meteorologists say that the chances of impacting the United States, as of Thursday, are rather unlikely.
Yet another disturbance is forecast to move off the coast of Africa late this weekend to early next week. There is a chance for this system to travel farther to the west than the current two features over the central Atlantic, especially if it manages to develop shortly after moving off shore of Africa.
Following Henri's deluge across the Northeast, a change in the weather pattern is expected this week, which is likely to bring a different outcome.
"Both central Atlantic features are likely to be blocked from traveling too close to North America. This is due to the position of a high pressure system near Bermuda and a forecast ripple in the atmosphere that would create southerly steering breezes near the Lesser Antilles," Sosnowski said.
While the official start of the Atlantic basin hurricane season is June 1, most of the storms tend to develop later in the summer and early fall. The peak of the season is considered to occur from mid-August to late September or early October.
According to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, approximately 80 percent of tropical storms and hurricanes form in a 45-day window of mid-August to late September, due to the ripe atmospheric conditions in the basin.
That has already been evident so far this year, when Tropical Storm Fred, Hurricane Grace and Hurricane Henri all formed in less than a week, from Aug. 11 to Aug.17.
So far in 2021, the Atlantic tropical season has been well ahead of normal. Henri became a named storm on Aug. 17, a staggering 38 days ahead of the normal "H" storm's formation on Sept. 24. Despite this, this tropical season is still running behind last year's record-shattering hurricane season, which produced Tropical Storm Hanna on July 24.
Even if all three of the tropical features currently being monitored in the Atlantic basin were to be named in the next couple of days, it would still be at least a week behind the pacing of the 2020 season - this time last year, there were already 13 named storms.
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