Brewing tropical system in Caribbean may take aim at US Gulf Coast
By
Renee Duff, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Updated Aug 26, 2021 10:11 AM EST
AccuWeather has the latest information on Tropical Depression Nine and projected impacts in the United States as a major hurricane in this link.
A newly-formed tropical depression drifting through the Caribbean Sea has a high likelihood of becoming a named system as it tracks into the Gulf of Mexico late this week and into the weekend. Parts of the Yucatan Peninsula that were hit by Hurricane Grace may again see impacts from this new tropical threat. However, a more likely scenario AccuWeather forecasters are analyzing opens up the possibility that the system could strengthen into a powerful hurricane and take aim at the western or central Gulf Coast.
"Odds are we're going to have a hurricane some point this weekend in the Gulf of Mexico," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said in Wednesday's edition of his Weather Insider podcast.
The feature under scrutiny, previously designated as Invest 99L by the National Hurricane Center, remained largely disorganized during the early part of this week as it produced showers and breezy conditions across parts of the Caribbean and northern portions of South America. The feature became better organized and was upgraded to Tropical Depression Nine by the NHC Thursday morning around 11 a.m. EDT.
This AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite image captured early Thursday morning, Aug. 26, 2021, shows an area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean Sea that forecasters are monitoring for additional tropical development and significant strengthening in the coming days.
"The depression will produce heavy showers and thunderstorms through Thursday across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, two areas that were also pummeled by Grace's heavy rain last week," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said.
Wind shear is expected to lessen late this week and further strengthening is forecast over the northwestern Caribbean ad later in the Gulf of Mexico.
On Friday, the brewing tropical threat is likely to deliver a round of heavy rainfall and gusty winds to western Cuba.
Should this system become a tropical storm (maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph, or 62-117 km/h) or stronger prior to its closest pass to western Cuba, the risk for damaging winds would be higher.
Regardless of the amount of strengthening early on, this can produce rainfall heavy enough to lead to flash flooding across western Cuba. The greatest risk for this will be to the west of Havana, including across Isla de la Juventud.
Bands of rain and gust wind can also develop father to the west and impact the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, an area where Grace made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane last week. While impacts from this tropical system are expected to pale in comparison to Grace, ongoing cleanup operations may be hindered.
This tropical depression will be competing with two other areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic basin to become the next named storm of the season. The next names on the list are Ida and Julian.
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Forecasters say that the longer-range path of this potential tropical threat still has plenty of moving parts that need to be ironed out in the days to come.
There is a range of possible ideas on movement and intensity of this system, but there is growing concern for the system to not only become a hurricane, but significant risk it could ramp up to a major hurricane of Category 3 strength or greater while in the Gulf of Mexico.
The strength of the system may determine is path through the Gulf of Mexico.
A system that remains on the weaker side will tend to take more of a westerly path, perhaps tracking more toward the southern or central Texas coast. Weaker systems tend to be guided along by the wind in the lowest part of the atmosphere.
On the other hand, a stronger, more organized system would tend to take into the northern Gulf of Mexico, and this is becoming more likely. Stronger systems are steered more by the larger-scale weather pattern, which in this case would be the clockwise flow around the Bermuda High.
In this scenario, the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts could have significant impacts from the system.
"Earlier this week it appeared that this high pressure area would remain strong and extend westward all the way to the southern Plains," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.
This setup would tend to block any northward path.
"However, it now appears that this high may weaken just enough over the lower Mississippi Valley to create an avenue for any well-developed storm in the Gulf of Mexico to possibly move northward and make landfall along the central Gulf coast of the U.S.," Sosnowski explained.
This latter scenario could result in a rapidly strengthening tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico.
Sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico could aid a strengthening storm, as they are well into the mid-80s in many areas, which is significantly above normal for this time of year.
Ocean temperatures on August 25 (NOAA)
All residents and concerns in western Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula and across the western and central Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system.
Given the range in possibilities, AccuWeather meteorologists say it's important to check back for the latest updates as more details emerge and the forecast becomes further refined.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo
News / Hurricane
Brewing tropical system in Caribbean may take aim at US Gulf Coast
By Renee Duff, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Updated Aug 26, 2021 10:11 AM EST
AccuWeather has the latest information on Tropical Depression Nine and projected impacts in the United States as a major hurricane in this link.
A newly-formed tropical depression drifting through the Caribbean Sea has a high likelihood of becoming a named system as it tracks into the Gulf of Mexico late this week and into the weekend. Parts of the Yucatan Peninsula that were hit by Hurricane Grace may again see impacts from this new tropical threat. However, a more likely scenario AccuWeather forecasters are analyzing opens up the possibility that the system could strengthen into a powerful hurricane and take aim at the western or central Gulf Coast.
"Odds are we're going to have a hurricane some point this weekend in the Gulf of Mexico," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said in Wednesday's edition of his Weather Insider podcast.
The feature under scrutiny, previously designated as Invest 99L by the National Hurricane Center, remained largely disorganized during the early part of this week as it produced showers and breezy conditions across parts of the Caribbean and northern portions of South America. The feature became better organized and was upgraded to Tropical Depression Nine by the NHC Thursday morning around 11 a.m. EDT.
This AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite image captured early Thursday morning, Aug. 26, 2021, shows an area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean Sea that forecasters are monitoring for additional tropical development and significant strengthening in the coming days.
"The depression will produce heavy showers and thunderstorms through Thursday across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, two areas that were also pummeled by Grace's heavy rain last week," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said.
Wind shear is expected to lessen late this week and further strengthening is forecast over the northwestern Caribbean ad later in the Gulf of Mexico.
On Friday, the brewing tropical threat is likely to deliver a round of heavy rainfall and gusty winds to western Cuba.
Should this system become a tropical storm (maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph, or 62-117 km/h) or stronger prior to its closest pass to western Cuba, the risk for damaging winds would be higher.
Regardless of the amount of strengthening early on, this can produce rainfall heavy enough to lead to flash flooding across western Cuba. The greatest risk for this will be to the west of Havana, including across Isla de la Juventud.
Bands of rain and gust wind can also develop father to the west and impact the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, an area where Grace made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane last week. While impacts from this tropical system are expected to pale in comparison to Grace, ongoing cleanup operations may be hindered.
This tropical depression will be competing with two other areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic basin to become the next named storm of the season. The next names on the list are Ida and Julian.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
Forecasters say that the longer-range path of this potential tropical threat still has plenty of moving parts that need to be ironed out in the days to come.
There is a range of possible ideas on movement and intensity of this system, but there is growing concern for the system to not only become a hurricane, but significant risk it could ramp up to a major hurricane of Category 3 strength or greater while in the Gulf of Mexico.
The strength of the system may determine is path through the Gulf of Mexico.
A system that remains on the weaker side will tend to take more of a westerly path, perhaps tracking more toward the southern or central Texas coast. Weaker systems tend to be guided along by the wind in the lowest part of the atmosphere.
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On the other hand, a stronger, more organized system would tend to take into the northern Gulf of Mexico, and this is becoming more likely. Stronger systems are steered more by the larger-scale weather pattern, which in this case would be the clockwise flow around the Bermuda High.
In this scenario, the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts could have significant impacts from the system.
"Earlier this week it appeared that this high pressure area would remain strong and extend westward all the way to the southern Plains," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.
This setup would tend to block any northward path.
"However, it now appears that this high may weaken just enough over the lower Mississippi Valley to create an avenue for any well-developed storm in the Gulf of Mexico to possibly move northward and make landfall along the central Gulf coast of the U.S.," Sosnowski explained.
This latter scenario could result in a rapidly strengthening tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico.
Sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico could aid a strengthening storm, as they are well into the mid-80s in many areas, which is significantly above normal for this time of year.
Ocean temperatures on August 25 (NOAA)
All residents and concerns in western Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula and across the western and central Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system.
Given the range in possibilities, AccuWeather meteorologists say it's important to check back for the latest updates as more details emerge and the forecast becomes further refined.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo