Hurricane Melissa’s Track, Landfall, Strengthening and Devastating Impacts Were First Conveyed and Best Forecast by AccuWeather
AccuWeather was the first to identify the potential for tropical development in the Caribbean, the first to forecast the risk of “life-threatening flooding,” and the first to predict that the storm would intensify into a hurricane.
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Crews from around the world are working to access remote regions of Jamaica to provide help in the aftermath of the strongest hurricane to ever strike Jamaica.
In late October 2025, Hurricane Melissa devastated parts of Jamaica and produced catastrophic flooding. Tying the record for most intense hurricane to ever make landfall in the Atlantic basin, Melissa caused severe damage to infrastructure, forced evacuations and triggered numerous mudslides across mountainous areas. From a week before Melissa formed through its historic track through the Caribbean, AccuWeather customers were best prepared for the storm’s devastating impacts.
AccuWeather was the first to identify the potential for tropical development in the Caribbean, the first to forecast the risk of “life-threatening flooding,” and the first to predict that the storm would intensify into a hurricane.
On average, AccuWeather’s track and intensity forecasts were more accurate than the National Hurricane Center (NHC), and AccuWeather’s forecast of landfall timing, location and intensity was also the best.
>> Better prepare your business from hurricanes and all tropical threats with AccuWeather's Hurricane Warning ServiceTM. Contact AccuWeather today to get started.
AccuWeather was First to Predict Tropical Development
On Oct. 14, seven days before Melissa formed, AccuWeather was the first known source to identify the risk for tropical development in the Caribbean—two full days before the National Hurricane Center (NHC) mentioned any potential for development.
On Oct. 17, AccuWeather was the first known source to raise its development risk forecast to “medium,” one day in advance of the NHC.
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AccuWeather was First to Forecast Life-Threatening Flooding and Other Major Impacts
At 8:00 a.m. ET on Oct. 20, AccuWeather was the first known source to predict the “potential for significant flooding" across the Caribbean. The NHC did not mention flooding until 12 hours later.
At 6:00 p.m. ET on Oct. 20, AccuWeather was the first known source to warn of the “potential for a life-threatening catastrophic flooding disaster," especially near steep terrain. AccuWeather forecasts included specific impacts such as:
- “Mudslides can occur.”
- “Bridges, roadways, railroads and other infrastructure may be washed out or destroyed.”
- The NHC did not use the phrase “life-threatening" untilâ¯Wednesday, Oct. 22, nearly two days later.
- Also at 6:00 p.m. ET on Oct. 20, AccuWeather was the first known sourceâ¯to warn that a "humanitarian crisis" could unfold due to widespread flooding and infrastructure damage.
AccuWeather was the First to Issue a Track and Intensity Forecast
On Oct. 20 at 10:00 p.m. ET, AccuWeather issued its first track and intensity forecast for the developing storm, accompanied by polygons clearly conveying when and where expected impacts could occur—18 hours before the NHC’s first forecast advisory.
With this forecast issuance, AccuWeather became theâ¯first known sourceâ¯to communicate that the storm would intensify into a hurricane and⯠"could undergo rapid intensification.”
AccuWeather Forecast Accuracy and Performance
Track Forecasts: AccuWeather’s track forecasts for Hurricane Melissa were 2.8% more accurate than those from the NHC.
Wind Intensity Forecasts: AccuWeather’s forecasts of maximum wind intensity were 2.5% more accurate⯠than those from the NHC.
AccuWeather’s exclusive 7-day track and intensity forecast extended, on average, 40 hours further into the future than the NHC track, providing customers with earlier awareness of their risk.
Landfall Forecast Performance: AccuWeather forecasts for landfall location and wind intensity were 3% and 11% more accurate than those from the NHC, respectively. AccuWeather forecasts for the timing of landfall were 14% more accurate than those from the NHC.
AccuWeather Forecasts Were More Descriptive
On Oct. 28, the day Melissa made landfall in Jamaica, only AccuWeather correctly described all the impacts from Melissa in places like Black River, near the point of landfall. Other known sources were far less descriptive, omitting key impacts such as storm surge.
- AccuWeather: “Hurricane Melissa will bring damaging winds and torrential rainfall; life-threatening storm surge, flooding rain, power outages and isolated tornadoes.”
- Google: “heavy rain”; no description of impacts.
- Weather.com: “major hurricane conditions; windy with thunderstorms; a few may contain very heavy rain.”
In the days leading up to Melissa’s impacts, AccuWeather forecasts available on web and mobile app were more detailed and descriptive than those from other sources. AccuWeather forecasts exclusively contained language such as:
- “Watch for life-threatening flooding, mudslides and damaging winds.”
“A hurricane can bring life-threatening flooding and strong winds later this week.”
- “Hurricane Melissa will produce catastrophic wind damage, flooding, mudslides and debris flows through Tuesday.”
Residents walk through Lacovia Tombstone, Jamaica, in the aftermath of Hurricane Melissa, Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2025. (AP Photo/Matias Delacroix)
AccuWeather’s exclusive AssetReport™ enabled business customers to automatically identify specific assets at risk and obtain important location-specific details, such as the expected amount of rain, wind, and storm surge at each asset. Additionally, these hazard areas can be displayed on interactive maps within the AccuWeather For Business Portal, enabling the quick identification of impacted locations, supply chain concerns, and business continuity issues.
Study after study has shown that AccuWeather provides more accurate, often earlier, and more detailed notifications of significant and extreme weather events that affect businesses and threaten the health, welfare and lives of individuals. AccuWeather has proven to be the most trusted and most accurate source of weather forecasts and warnings.
This is another example of the more than 100 events every year in which AccuWeather forecasts with proven Superior Accuracy™ and clearer descriptions of weather impacts, help people, communities and businesses better prepare and stay safer.
Why take unnecessary risks? Better prepare your business from hurricanes and all tropical threats with AccuWeather's Hurricane Warning ServiceTM. Contact AccuWeather today to get started. Start using AccuWeather today.
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