Get Ready for Major Fall Severe Outbreak

UPDATE: The 12Z runs of the NMM and GFS Forecast Models [JessePedia] are in agreement with the previously outlines SPC areas on both major Severe Weather Indices [JessePedia] - CAPE & LI. The EHI (Henry's favorite) is strong in those areas as well, but strongest in eastern Nebraska and western Arkansas tomorrow night. All said, I would expect a long night of activity on the StormMatrix from tomorrow evening through Thursday morning.

Could it be a Moderate Risk on Day Three? It is indeed, my friends, and this is very rare - an indication that The SPC [JessePedia] does not take this week's severe weather outbreak lightly. Severe weather is likely to pound the Central Plains tomorrow (Wednesday) and Midwest (Thursday). Here's how SPC breaks it down:

I'm curious to see what the new hi-res WRF model (that I blogged about last month) has to say about this outbreak, but it won't forecast out far enough until tonight to see the severe weather. Meanwhile the NMM and GFS seem strikingly similar to the SPC's risk areas for Lifted Index, one of the major Severe Weather Indicies.

Some of our in-house meteorologists say they are "suspicious" of the veracity of this late-season severe weather outbreak, but Meteo Madness Man (PREMIUM | PRO) is hyped, and has explanatory model graphics to prove it.