Big Tornado Outbreak Possible
UPDATE: I just realized that SPC is hinting at a HIGH RISK issuance tomorrow in their Day 2: "AN UPGRADE OF SOME PORTION OF CATEGORICAL MDT RISK AREA IS POSSIBLE IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS VALID FOR THIS PERIOD."
ORIGINAL POST:
If you've watched The SPC [JessePedia] today, you've probably noticed that they have increased their "Day 1" and "Day 2" severe weather risks from "Slight" to "Moderate" around noon today (see below). Doing that to the "Day 1" slight is quite common for them (why can't they detect the severity earlier? I don't know). "Day 2" is another story... for them to say Moderate for "Day 2", the weather situation means business.
THE SPC THURSDAY MAP
Other forecasters disagree, but I think it's worth mentioning. Better safe than sorry. Frankly, I'm concerned (from a life & limb perspective) about the size of SPC's Moderate Risk tomorrow -- seeing that much red makes a meteorologist uneasy. If what they say is true, we're going to have a widespread tornado outbreak. Earlier this morning I also heard some increased chatter from some forecasters in our Operations Area such as Meteo Madness Man (PREMIUM | PRO), who is very hyped about this little-hyped outbreak.
Now, I would caution that the Severe Weather Indices [JessePedia] from the Forecast Models [JessePedia] (NMM & GFS anyway) are not as exciting for this storm as they were for last week's. That means either they just aren't picking it up well or this won't be a mega outbreak.
The NMM's Lifted Index is good but west of the Risk area tonight...
And it keeps a wide area of so-so values through the storm's exit from the East Coast Friday, I'll give it that.
As far as CAPE, it starts it out good in Central Oklahoma like the LI, but says the max will be in the Lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow afternoon:
The GFS has so little CAPE as to be not worth even mentioning, while it's LI values mimic the NMM's, though they are less exciting and not worth mentioning east of Mississippi tomorrow evening:
Here's our official forecast map:
Report a Typo
