Possible reason for unusual rain pattern this El Nino
I have stated this before and I will say it again. This has not been your typical strong El Nino West Coast winter, at least through what looks like now much of January.
The Pacific Northwest has been consistently wet. Most of western Washington and Oregon are 30 to 60 percent above normal in precipitation since Oct. 1. Northern and north-central California are about normal while the Sierra snow is anywhere from normal to 25 percent above normal. Meanwhile, from San Luis Obispo on south precipitation totals are averaging 30 to 40 percent below normal. For Southern California, three of the five usually wettest months have already gone by.
Of course, things can change and I am not saying that the rest of the rainy season has to continue like this. A couple of monster storms in February and early March could turn the numbers around in Southern California. In the Northwest, however, a forecast of below-normal precipitation, some had much below, just does not seem likely at all.
One can conjecture the reasons for this. But could an unusual El Nino precipitation pattern be as simple as looking at the state of water temperatures across the entire Pacific? It very well could be at least part of the reason.
Here is a view of sea surface temperature anomalies centered on the Pacific.
Easy to spot are the very warm waters around the equatorial Eastern Pacific with our current strong El Nino. There is also a core of warmer-than-normal water from Asia to the West Coast of the U.S. between 20 and 40 north. In between, however, is a core of cooler-than-normal water running much of the Pacific between 10 and 20 north.
Where has the main storm track been this winter? Mainly where it is right now between 30 and 40 north from the western to the east-central Pacific. Right over this core of warmer water.
What have storms been lacking in Southern California so far this winter? Any pineapple connection whatsoever which originates from near and south of 20 north.
Coincidence? Probably not. The full reason, probably not as well, but it is hard to ignore the connections here.
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