Long-Range Update
A quick Tuesday update on the weekly long-range forecast model output.
I believe the risk for widespread, large wildfires in British Columbia will be much higher than normal through the summer into the early fall with warmer-than-normal temperatures expected. The lack of cold last winter will once again allow for a significant population of Pine Bark Beetle which will takes its toll on large sections of forest. The weakened or dried out, dead trees will allow fires to spread quickly.
El Nino expected to strengthen through the summer into the fall
Signs are increasingly pointing toward a potentially strong El Nino by the upcoming fall. We are certainly overdue with the previous strong El Nino's taking place back in 1982-83 and 1997-98. Latest sea surface temperatures in portions of the eastern equatorial Pacific are already averaging 2 to 3 degrees C above normal.
A strong El Nino's largest influence on Canada typically comes during the winter with widespread above-normal temperatures from the Pacific coast through the southern Prairies and into the Great Lakes.
If the above does occur, it is highly likely that 2015 will end up as the warmest year on record (going back to 1880) globally for land/ocean surface with 2016 possibly setting another record.
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