Multiple Arctic outbreaks to affect more than 250 million in central, eastern US into mid-January
The central, southern and eastern United States are bracing for the coldest, most persistent frigid Arctic air in years that will come in waves and last through mid-January. Storms packing snow and ice will join in.
Round after round after round of Arctic air is poised to plunge into the central and eastern United States. AccuWeather meteorologists warn that each outbreak of Arctic air has the potential to bring colder air farther south than the previous round and will lead to a major surge in energy demands and the risk of freeze-related damage in the Southern states.
The magnitude and extent of the Arctic air will build into the first full week of January and linger through the middle of the month and will, at times, affect more than 250 million people living in more than 40 states in the Central and Eastern regions.
"At this time, it looks like there will be at least three major blasts of Arctic air that will affect the Southern states," AccuWeather Meteorologist Alex DaSilva said. "The first outbreak will linger into Jan. 4, the second on Jan. 7-8 and then the third round on Jan. 11-12." Additional rounds of Arctic air may follow but be directed more toward the Midwest and Northeast.
Each wave will bring a reinforcing shot of cool air, keeping air temperatures well below the norm for the first month of the year.
Even though each layer of cold coming in may stop short of the most extreme conditions in the past 10-15 years, the number of days spent below the historical average will add up in dozens of states from just east of the Rockies to the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.
“This is not record-setting cold, but the longevity of these cold waves, combined with snow on the ground in the Upper Midwest and northern Plains, will lead to a prolonged surge in heating demand,” AccuWeather Long-Range Expert Joe Lundberg said.
The prolonged nature of the cold, as a result, could end up making a splash on the record books, making it the coldest January in over a decade.
“This could end up being the coldest January since 2011 for the U.S. as a whole,” AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok said.
Another key factor as to how far to the south and east the extreme cold will be able to penetrate is that multiple storms are forecast to produce extensive swaths of snow and ice from the Great Plains to the Midwest, East and even well into the Southern states. Snow cover minimizes the warming effects of the ground and acts as a tundralike surface for the cold air to expand upon.
In the southern U.S., exposed or poorly insulated homes and buildings are at high risk of frozen and bursting pipes with the potential for major water damage. The persistence and magnitude of the cold can be enough to cause heat pump systems to struggle to keep up. As energy demands increase, the strain on the electric grid could force rolling blackouts.
Due to the magnitude and duration of freezing temperatures, cold-sensitive crops in the Gulf Coast states will be at risk from damage.
"At this time, the areas that are likely to be most vulnerable for crop-damaging freezes will be in central and northern Florida, southern Louisiana and parts of central Texas," DaSilva said. "We are closely watching South Texas and South Florida for any indication of lower temperatures that could be damaging to agriculture."
Much of the Great Lakes has little ice cover, leaving the exposed water to warm the Arctic air somewhat. However, persistent cold air will cause the ice cover to increase substantially. As the ice coverage increases, the warming effects of the Great Lakes will be reduced, opening up the Northeast to more exposure to extreme cold.
As the frigid air passes over the Great Lakes, it will quickly pick up moisture and result in heavy to extreme bands of lake-effect snow that could bury some towns under feet of snow and massive drifts. As the bands of snow move around with shifting winds, the snow can move away and then come back in some areas multiple times during the approximately two-week period through the middle of the month.
Commuters brave the wind and snow in frigid weather on Wednesday, Jan. 30, 2019, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/John Minchillo)
Periods of stiff winds will accompany the cold blasts. In some cases, the combination of frigid air, wind and precipitation will push AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures to well below zero for extended periods from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes and middle Mississippi and Ohio valleys.
Over time, the subzero RealFeel Temperatures will reach east of the Appalachians and into the Gulf Coast region.
The wavy nature of the Arctic air will be conducive to multiple winter storms across the central and eastern US, including a storm coming this weekend expected to unload areas of accumulating snow and ice.
The storms will vary in intensity and cover, but at least a couple of them can be so extensive and heavy as to result in major travel disruptions. Snow and ice will occur in parts of the Southern states, and with limited winter storm fighting equipment, extended periods of dangerous travel and school closings could result.
But even in the Midwest and Northeast, as the cold and snowy pattern intensifies, disruptions to travel and the potential for school closings will increase.
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