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News / Winter Weather

Coastal storm to create weather whiplash and a taste of winter for some across Northeast

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Published Oct 15, 2020 10:20 AM EST

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Big weather changes are in store for the Northeast following a stretch of mild autumn days as a coastal storm is forecast to take shape quickly and strengthen just offshore -- and forecasters say the weather system will pack a wintry punch for the region. The storm will pound the region with heavy rain that could trigger not only flooding problems but also the first accumulating snowfall of the season across parts of the region. Temperatures will crash in the wake of the storm, including in areas that miss out on the early-season dose of wintry precipitation.

Showers associated with a cold front progressed eastward across the Appalachians from Thursday night to Friday. It is along this front where the storm will form and begin to enhance rainfall from the mid-Atlantic to northern New England into Friday night.

The rain picked up in intensity enough to slow travel on the highways and lead to urban flooding in poor drainage areas Friday night. Where leaves fall and block storm drains, flooding problems could be exacerbated, especially in New England and eastern upstate New York. The combination of fallen leaves and drenching rain can also make city streets and secondary roads rather slick.

Parts of southeastern New England, including the Boston area, could pick up 1 to 2 inches of rain from this system, according to AccuWeather Broadcast Meteorologist Brittany Boyer. However, as Boyer pointed out, the rain is needed across this drought-stricken portion of the country.

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After the storm takes shape and accelerates northeastward, rain came to an abrupt end from southwest to northeast across the Interstate-95 corridor of the mid-Atlantic on Friday night. Farther to the north, heavy rain continued pouring down in much of central and northern New England. Across northern New England, rain will continue through midday Saturday before tapering off.

As colder air was drawn into the storm, wet snow began to mix in for a very brief time in the Adirondacks and Green Mountains late Friday night.

However, forecasters say the first accumulations of the season are anticipated in some of the mountains of northern New England, where cold will meet up with the storm with enough time to allow a full changeover to snow.

"Even though it may snow for only a few hours in the White Mountains of northern New Hampshire, a heavy snowfall is forecast for elevations above 3,000 feet," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bill Deger said.

"At this level, 4-8 inches of snow is forecast with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 12 inches most likely above 3,500 feet," Deger said, adding that heavy snow will also extend into the mountains of southern Quebec.

For the Green Mountains of Vermont, it will be a race between cold air and dry air sweeping in. If the cold air catches up with the back end of the moisture fast enough, then a few inches of snow can fall on the ridges. But, if dry air sweeps in too quickly, the rain will just end as a brief period of wet snow or a rain and snow mix.

The storm is not likely to strengthen enough to reach official bomb cyclone status, which occurs when the central atmospheric pressure at a storm's center plummets 0.71 of an inch of mercury (24 millibars) within 24 hours, but it will intensify enough to bring gusty winds in addition to heavy rain and high-elevation snow. The storm could lead to sporadic power outages from eastern New York through New England.

Gusts ranging between 20 and 40 mph could howl across eastern parts of southeastern Massachusetts, coastal New Hampshire and coastal Maine on Saturday. Since the southeasterly winds will push some water toward the coast with the seasonal King Tides occurring at the same time, minor coastal flooding at times of high tide is possible. King Tides are the highest tides of the year and are caused by Earth's proximity to the moon and sun, which affects the gravitational pull on Earth and tide levels.

Stronger wind gusts are likely on the immediate backside of the storm and may range from 30 to 50 mph from eastern New York state through New England. Winds this strong could cause trees to topple over in the wet soil conditions, especially where leaves remain on trees and clinging wet snow coats branches in the mountains.

Related:

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A batch of chilly air will briefly settle over the Northeast later Saturday to Sunday morning in the wake of the autumn storm. AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures are likely to range from the 20s and lower 30s over the northern tier to the 40s and lower 50s along the mid-Atlantic coast during Saturday midday and afternoon.

The normally colder spots across the interior may endure a hard freeze Saturday night over interior New England. The risk will be greatest where winds diminish and the sky becomes clear.

Temperatures are forecast to rebound to seasonable levels on Sunday afternoon with calm conditions expected along the coast and a light southerly breeze in store west of the Appalachians. Highs typically range from the middle 50s F over the northern tier to near 70 around the Chesapeake Bay during the middle of October.

Accumulating snowfall is not totally uncommon in the Northeast during the month of October. A heavy, wet snow blanketed parts of the region during the middle of the month back in 2009. The weight of the snow downed trees and caused numerous power outages across the region.

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

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AccuWeather Winter Weather Coastal storm to create weather whiplash and a taste of winter for some across Northeast
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