Super Typhoon Meranti will continue to track to the west-northwest while remaining a strong typhoon. Meranti is one of the strongest topical cyclones to develop in the western Pacific, near the strengthen of Super Typhoon Haiyan. Meranti is currently located about 525 km (325 miles) to the south-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. Movement is to the west at 226km/h (16 mph). Maximum sustained winds are at 295 km/h (185 mph) with gusts to 360 km/h (225 mph).

Also, Tropical Storm Malakas is located about 1560 km (970 miles) to the east of Manila, Philippines. Movement is to the west at 24 km/h (15 mph). Maximum sustained winds are at 95 km/h (60 mph) with gusts to 110 km/h (70 mph).

Meranti will pass just to the south of Taiwan late Tuesday night into Wednesday. The forecast from yesterday has not changed significantly as the core of worst conditions will pass just to the south of the country.

The most severe impacts will be in the southern tip of Taiwan from late Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will be the most likely area to endure significant wind damage and flooding. Wind gusts are expected to be near 100 mph on the southern tip of Taiwan with rainfall exceeding 250 mm (10 inches).

Along the southeast coast of Taiwan, heavy rain can still lead to flooding, but wind damage will not be as large of a concern. About 250-500 mm (10-20 inches) of rain will still fall in some areas of the southeast coast, so significant flash flooding and mudslides will remain a risk. Along the southeast coast, there can still be a storm surge of 1-2 m (3-7 feet) leading to coastal flooding.

Along the more populated west coast of Taiwan, impacts will be much less compared to the east coast. These more populated areas will receive rainfall of 50-200 mm (2-8 inches) which could lead to isolated flooding. The heaviest rain will be in the southwest. Wind gusts of 80-130 kph (60-80 mph) in the southwest are possible, while areas from Yunlin County northward will see lesser winds. As a result, any notable flooding and wind damage should be confined to areas south of Yunlin County and many of the highly populated areas will not see significant damage.

Once passing Taiwan, a landfall in southeastern China is expected late on Wednesday night or early on Thursday, local time. Landfall is expected near the Guangdong-Fujian boarder. Some weakening is expected before landfall, but Meranti will still be a dangerous typhoon, possibly even as strong as a Category 3 hurricane.

Wind damage is expected in far eastern Guangdong and southwestern Fujian. Wind damage could be significant along the coast where wind gusts will be 130-160 kph (80-100 mph). Minor wind damage will extend inland, but damage should lessen fairly quickly as the storm weakens.

Flooding rainfall of 125-250 mm (5-10 inches) will cover a large portion of southeastern China from eastern Guangdong to Fujian and southern Jiangxi. This will lead to the threat for widespread flooding. Locally heavy rain across Zhejiang could produce isolated flooding as well.

Another storm that we are monitoring is Tropical Storm Malakas, located to the west of Guam. This storm will continue to track to the northwest through the rest of the week while becoming a typhoon. By Friday, the storm is expected to impact the Ryukyu Islands and may pass near northern Taiwan. Impacts to northern Taiwan are possible as the track could be close to the country. Over the weekend, Malakas is expected to turn to the northeast and may affect southern South Korea and Japan. This system will be have high chance at impacting land, so it will likely be the next significant threat across the basin.

In the longer range, we will watch an area to the south of Japan around the the weekend for development. At this point, it is only a low risk for becoming a significant system; however, it will track to the northwest, generally towards Japan. As a result, impacts to land are possible.

Also, there are also some indications that an area from the South China Sea to the Ryukyu Islands could harbor development next week. As a result, it is possible that active conditions will continue across the basin during the next two weeks with impacts from Japan to Taiwan possible.

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