--Maybe it is not where one might have thought as of Monday: however, there may be a tropical cyclone gathering south of the Equator. The JTWC have advised that such may happen over open seas southwest of Sumatra. There is another "whirl" opposite the Equator from southern India and Sri Lanka. It is not as near to tropical depression status as the tropical low to its east.

As for any "ghost" of Tropical Storm Noul, now dissipated over southern Thailand, I see no indication, based upon numerical forecast scenarios, of its regeneration into a tropical depression (let alone tropical cyclone) westward over the Andaman Sea and southern Bay of Bengal.

Tropical moisture wafted over the southern half of India has fostered a few widely-separated thunderstorms on Tuesday. This moisture will bring hit-or-miss thunderstorms over southern and eastern India for another two days or so, bolstered in part by a "Western Disturbance" sweeping eastward over Pakistan and northern India within a well-marked sub-tropical jet stream.

At the weekend and the start of next week, showers and thunderstorms having the "earmarks" of the North East Monsoon are indicated once again by the latest GFS scenarios.

--Australia:

A series of big blowups of rain over the very red heart of the continent during the last few days. Rainfall of nearly 10 cms/4 inches at Alice Springs in southern Northern Territory. Something like three fold the normal monthly rainfall. Other amounts over a wide area are 25 to 75 mm as of Tuesday night, local time.

Altogether separate from things over the outback, rains have also lately pelted southeastern Queensland in and about Brisbane. Widespread rainfall of 50-100 mm/2.0-4.0 inches since Saturday. In Brisbane itself, 75 to 150 mm, or 3.0 to 6.0 inches.

A short-wave trough triggering Tuesday's thunderstorms over central Australia will shift eastward with scattered strong thunderstorms and heavy downpours Wednesday. Culmination of this scenario will be the blowup of a strong storm off the southeastern corner of Australia on Thursday. And this is not the end, for a separate wave is forecast to track northeast over the Southern Ocean to the area of Victoria to blow up another storm at the weekend. This would be a cold storm with chilling rain at Melbourne and snow along the Australian Alps.

-Europe:

Western Europe is moderating this early week owing to North Atlantic high pressure feeding sea- borne air ashore. Thursday and Friday, the path of the jet stream over the continent will shift sharply southward, its track becoming virtually north-south over Britain and France to the western Mediterranean Sea. Arctic Maritime air will pour southward along and east of the jet stream axis driving its chill to the Alps and beyond. Look for outbreaks of soaking rain and locally heavy snow in a complex, unsettled spell lasting into next week.

An aspect of the upcoming storminess over Europe will be strong, lasting northerly winds, many of them gales, over the Norwegian and North Seas. This will bring high storm tides to the south end of the North Sea (Netherlands, NW Germany, Belgium, SE England and northernmost France) on Friday and Saturday.

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