Goodbye polar vortex, hello warmth
By
Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published May 12, 2020 5:26 PM EDT
Typical springtime warmth has been missing in action in parts of the Northeast and Midwest in recent weeks. However, forecasters have good news for the many warm-weather fans that have been left to wonder what season it is anyway amid the unusual chill: much warmer weather is on the way. And this time, a more typical spring and even summerlike pattern is expected to stick around for most areas.
The persistent chilly pattern with a strong southward plunge in the jet stream associated with an extension of the polar vortex is expected to swing away, setting the stage for a Bermuda high pressure area over the western Atlantic that will exert more influence on the weather in the eastern United States.
"When comparing the temperature trend from last weekend to what is in store for this weekend in most areas, daytime highs will be an average of 30 degrees Fahrenheit higher," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said.
Even more dramatic, a 40- to 60-degree temperature rise is in store when comparing low temperatures in the teens, 20s and 30s from last weekend to the daytime highs forecast to be in the 60s, 70s and 80s this weekend.
For example, in Bradford, Pennsylvania, the temperature dipped to a record 22 F on Saturday morning. The temperature is forecast to reach near the 70-degree mark this Saturday and could climb into the 70s on Sunday.
It will be a similar story in Nashville, Tennessee, and Charlotte, North Carolina, where record low temperatures in the mid-30s were recorded this past weekend. Highs in the middle 80s to near 90 are anticipated this weekend.
The uptick in temperatures will reach the Atlantic coast as well and will occur at an even more swift pace.
In New York City, the temperature on Wednesday morning fell just short of breaking long-standing record low of 39, which was set way back in 1895. A little over 48 hours later, the thermometer may register 80 degrees, which is about 10 degrees above normal, on Friday afternoon in the Big Apple.
Boston broke a 138 year-old record on Wednesday morning when the temperature reached 37. The previous record low temperature was 38 from 1882. Friday's high is predicted to reach near 70 degrees, or a couple of degrees above normal, in the city.
Millions of Americans who live from the mid-Mississippi Valley to the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts will experience a change from unprecedented cold followed by warmth in the coming days, and meteorologists say the upcoming spring weather will have more staying power compared to recent weeks.
"While some cool air is likely to fight back from the Upper Midwest to the Northeast in the coming weeks, intense and long-lasting plunges of cold air like we just had are not anticipated," Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather's top long-range forecaster, said.
"After the middle of this week, frosty episodes are still possible but are likely to be more isolated in nature from the Upper Midwest to the northern Appalachians during the second half of May, assuming perfect conditions," Pastelok said.
Any kind of cloud cover or a breeze will prevent frost at night from mid- to late-May due to the long days and limited darkness.
"We are in solar summer now, which is the 12-week period of the highest sun angle in the Northern Hemisphere," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Dombek said.
Factoring in the intense sunshine and the fact that any additional cool air setbacks in the coming weeks will be much less intense than previous waves of cool weather, the temperature will respond positively during the daytime.
"The big story now will be the more frequent episodes of warmth from the Upper Midwest to the Northeast and the persistent warmth over the South-Central and Southeast states from mid- to late-May," Pastelok said.
In Detroit and Pittsburgh, where temperatures were 7 and 10 degrees below average for the first 11 days of May, respectively, temperatures are likely to average 3 to 6 degrees above average for the remaining days of May. This is notable as normal temperatures trend upward quickly during the month. In Detroit, the normal high at the beginning of May is 65, and the normal high at the end of the month is 75. Pittsburgh's normal high for May 1 is 64 versus 75 for May 31.
The negative temperature departures from the first half of May could be totally wiped out in in portions of the Midwest and replaced with slightly above-average temperatures for the month as a whole by May 31 even as normal temperatures trend upward. Even though some cool shots are still forecast in parts of the Northeast, average temperatures for the month may only end up falling slightly below average.
The same weather pattern bringing the persistent warmth to the South will also set the stage for the development of tropical systems in the coming days and weeks.
AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring a system that could potentially develop into a subtropical or tropical system near the Bahamas this weekend. Tropical threats may also brew in the coming weeks near the Gulf Coast with a very active Atlantic hurricane season forecast.
Perhaps as people reflect at the end of the month, many might remember May as being real two-faced with winter on one side and summer on the other.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo
News / Weather News
Goodbye polar vortex, hello warmth
By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published May 12, 2020 5:26 PM EDT
Typical springtime warmth has been missing in action in parts of the Northeast and Midwest in recent weeks. However, forecasters have good news for the many warm-weather fans that have been left to wonder what season it is anyway amid the unusual chill: much warmer weather is on the way. And this time, a more typical spring and even summerlike pattern is expected to stick around for most areas.
The persistent chilly pattern with a strong southward plunge in the jet stream associated with an extension of the polar vortex is expected to swing away, setting the stage for a Bermuda high pressure area over the western Atlantic that will exert more influence on the weather in the eastern United States.
"When comparing the temperature trend from last weekend to what is in store for this weekend in most areas, daytime highs will be an average of 30 degrees Fahrenheit higher," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said.
Even more dramatic, a 40- to 60-degree temperature rise is in store when comparing low temperatures in the teens, 20s and 30s from last weekend to the daytime highs forecast to be in the 60s, 70s and 80s this weekend.
For example, in Bradford, Pennsylvania, the temperature dipped to a record 22 F on Saturday morning. The temperature is forecast to reach near the 70-degree mark this Saturday and could climb into the 70s on Sunday.
It will be a similar story in Nashville, Tennessee, and Charlotte, North Carolina, where record low temperatures in the mid-30s were recorded this past weekend. Highs in the middle 80s to near 90 are anticipated this weekend.
The uptick in temperatures will reach the Atlantic coast as well and will occur at an even more swift pace.
In New York City, the temperature on Wednesday morning fell just short of breaking long-standing record low of 39, which was set way back in 1895. A little over 48 hours later, the thermometer may register 80 degrees, which is about 10 degrees above normal, on Friday afternoon in the Big Apple.
Boston broke a 138 year-old record on Wednesday morning when the temperature reached 37. The previous record low temperature was 38 from 1882. Friday's high is predicted to reach near 70 degrees, or a couple of degrees above normal, in the city.
Related:
Millions of Americans who live from the mid-Mississippi Valley to the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts will experience a change from unprecedented cold followed by warmth in the coming days, and meteorologists say the upcoming spring weather will have more staying power compared to recent weeks.
"While some cool air is likely to fight back from the Upper Midwest to the Northeast in the coming weeks, intense and long-lasting plunges of cold air like we just had are not anticipated," Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather's top long-range forecaster, said.
"After the middle of this week, frosty episodes are still possible but are likely to be more isolated in nature from the Upper Midwest to the northern Appalachians during the second half of May, assuming perfect conditions," Pastelok said.
Any kind of cloud cover or a breeze will prevent frost at night from mid- to late-May due to the long days and limited darkness.
"We are in solar summer now, which is the 12-week period of the highest sun angle in the Northern Hemisphere," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Dombek said.
Factoring in the intense sunshine and the fact that any additional cool air setbacks in the coming weeks will be much less intense than previous waves of cool weather, the temperature will respond positively during the daytime.
"The big story now will be the more frequent episodes of warmth from the Upper Midwest to the Northeast and the persistent warmth over the South-Central and Southeast states from mid- to late-May," Pastelok said.
In Detroit and Pittsburgh, where temperatures were 7 and 10 degrees below average for the first 11 days of May, respectively, temperatures are likely to average 3 to 6 degrees above average for the remaining days of May. This is notable as normal temperatures trend upward quickly during the month. In Detroit, the normal high at the beginning of May is 65, and the normal high at the end of the month is 75. Pittsburgh's normal high for May 1 is 64 versus 75 for May 31.
The negative temperature departures from the first half of May could be totally wiped out in in portions of the Midwest and replaced with slightly above-average temperatures for the month as a whole by May 31 even as normal temperatures trend upward. Even though some cool shots are still forecast in parts of the Northeast, average temperatures for the month may only end up falling slightly below average.
The same weather pattern bringing the persistent warmth to the South will also set the stage for the development of tropical systems in the coming days and weeks.
AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring a system that could potentially develop into a subtropical or tropical system near the Bahamas this weekend. Tropical threats may also brew in the coming weeks near the Gulf Coast with a very active Atlantic hurricane season forecast.
Perhaps as people reflect at the end of the month, many might remember May as being real two-faced with winter on one side and summer on the other.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo