Tropical activity brewing near US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts
Tropical development is possible from the southern Atlantic coast to the northeastern Gulf through the first full week of July, while Hurricane Flossie continues to churn in the eastern Pacific.
AccuWeather’s Alex DaSilva was live on the AccuWeather Network on July 2 with an update on the potential for tropical development along the Southeast coast.
A broad area of weakly spinning low pressure could slowly consolidate and develop into a tropical storm along the southeastern coast of the United States into next week, AccuWeather meteorologists say. Meanwhile, tropical development in the eastern Pacific continues at a brisk pace, with Flossie achieving major hurricane status for a time.
Two areas near the U.S. coast are being monitored for slow tropical development in the coming days. The larger and currently more organized area of interest is located a few hundred miles to the east of Florida's Space Coast. The other was merely a cluster of thunderstorms located just southeast of Louisiana, over the northern Gulf.
AccuWeather meteorologists have had their eye on this zone for future development since mid-June and have assigned a medium risk for waters along the U.S. southern Atlantic coast and a low risk for waters in the northeastern and central Gulf into next week.
Tropical development factors being considered
Water temperatures in the southwestern Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico are high enough—in the 80s Fahrenheit—to support the formation and strengthening of a tropical depression or storm. The typical threshold for development is around 80°F.
In terms of disruptive breezes (wind shear), there is far less wind shear east of Florida versus over the northern Gulf at this time. Moderate to strong wind shear can inhibit tropical development.
This image of the southwest Atlantic and Gulf was captured on Wednesday, July 2, 2025. (AccuWeather RealVue™ Satellite)
While the air is moist in both zones, there are higher moisture levels along and off the southern East coast of the U.S. versus the Gulf, and drier air is pushing across the northern Gulf at this time. A moist environment is needed for tropical development.
In the coming days, high pressure will develop over the Ohio Valley and move eastward. At the same time, a large area of high pressure over the central Atlantic, called the Bermuda high, will hold its ground. The Atlantic area of interest will tend to exist between the two areas of high pressure and could be fortified somewhat by both.
Tracking the two areas of interest and their impacts
"Which high ends up exerting more influence may determine the track of the tropical area of interest, should it develop," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "If the Bermuda high is stronger, it could push the tropical feature close to the U.S. coast and potentially shorten the development window. On the other hand, should the high building in from the Midwest be stronger, it could shunt the tropical feature more offshore over the Atlantic, where it might have more time to evolve and strengthen."
From July 4 through early next week, conditions will favor rounds of drenching thunderstorms from parts of Florida to the coastal Carolinas, fueled by tropical moisture and lingering atmospheric instability.
As for the Gulf potential tropical system, steering breezes would likely guide any mass of showers and thunderstorms toward the west along the northern Gulf coast and eventually could take thunderstorms into Texas early next week.
Even if both tropical features fail to fully develop, seas and surf can build for a time in the region, especially in the zone from northeastern Florida to the Carolinas over the extended holiday weekend. Swimmers should use caution as surf and rip currents are likely to build. Conditions can become hazardous for small craft operating outside of the Intracoastal Waterway.
Hurricane Flossie expected to lose intensity in eastern Pacific
The eastern Pacific continues with its machinelike tropical development as Flossie rapidly intensified during the first part of this week, taking only a couple of days to go from a tropical storm to a major Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
"Hurricane Flossie will continue to track northwestward into the end of the week," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Scott Homan said. "Flossie will gradually move over cooler waters and a less favorable environment and is expected to lose wind intensity through this weekend."
The storm will also bring dangerous waves and rip currents to the Mexican coast through Friday.
"Flossie will continue to track farther away from the southwestern Mexican coast but is forecast to approach southern Baja California Sur late this week, where gusty winds and localized heavy rain can occur and lead to localized flooding," Homan said.
Due to flooding rain and gusty winds, Hurricane Flossie is a 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in Mexico.
Flossie is the second major hurricane of the 2025 eastern Pacific hurricane season, following Category 4, 145-mph Hurricane Erick during June. Erick was not only the earliest fifth storm in the basin on record, it was also the strongest major hurricane to make landfall (in Mexico) so early in the season.
On average, the sixth named storm of the season (the "F" storm) does not form until early August and the second major hurricane of the season does not occur until mid-August.
As Flossie tracks off to the northwest, a new area of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to give birth to the next tropical storm of the season for the eastern Pacific.
The next name on the list is Gil.
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