'As frightening an eye as you will ever see': Very close call for Florida as Hurricane Dorian looms off the coast
Hurricane Dorian struck the northern Bahamas as a catastrophic Category 5 storm on Sept. 1 with its record 185 mph (297 kph) winds overturning cars and tearing down power lines as hundreds hunkered down in schools, churches and shelters.
Hurricane Dorian strengthened to a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane on Sunday morning before making three landfalls in the northern Bahamas.
Dorian made its first landfall on Elbow Cay in the Bahamas, at 12:45 p.m. Sunday, with maximum sustained winds of 185 mph and gusts over 220 mph. A second landfall occurred shortly thereafter over Marsh Harbour, on the island of Great Abaco, with the same intensity. The third landfall occurred along the eastern shores of Grand Bahama Island late Sunday evening. Dorian continued to produce category 5 strength, with winds topping 180 mph.
The National Hurricane Center said Dorian was the strongest hurricane in modern record-keeping for the northwestern Bahamas and it was tied for the strongest Atlantic hurricane landfall on record with the 1935 Labor Day hurricane.
The powerful storm continued blasting the Bahamas into Monday morning, becoming nearly stationary. But Dorian may spare the eastern coast of Florida a direct hit by a very close margin. Impacts along the Florida coast will still be damaging even without a landfalling hurricane.
The hurricane has made the westward turn forecasters had been predicting, but the turn to the north is becoming more likely to occur before it reaches the east coast of Florida. And the storm looked forbidding in satellite imagery.
"The eye is as frightening an eye as you will ever see," AccuWeather Chief Broadcast Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said, discussing the latest infrared satellite images to come in on Sunday night. "In fact, it is almost a perfect circle."
This satellite images shows Category 5 Hurricane Dorian making landfall across the northern Bahamas with maximum sustained winds of 185 mph on Sunday afternoon, Sep. 1, 2019. (NOAA/GOES-East)
Fluctuations in strength are possible through early week due to internal processes of hurricanes, such as eyewall replacement cycles, and crossing over the northern Bahamas.
The stall near Grand Bahama is likely to give non-tropical storm from the Midwest time to begin to tug on Dorian and pull it northward and then northeastward later Monday into Tuesday.
This should be enough to allow a glancing blow on Florida, rather than a direct hit, similar to Hurricane Matthew in 2016.
However, while Florida may avoid a hurricane that rams inland with widespread, severe damage, there will be other consequences of the revised path of the mighty storm.
Devastation over the northern Bahamas
The slow crawl across the northern Bahamas will be devastating. Instead of a period of 6-12 hours of hurricane-force winds, pounding surf and storm surge inundation, these conditions may last more than 24 hours in some locations on the islands of Abaco and Grand Bahama.
"People on Grand Bahama and Abaco in the Bahamas can expect major damage, widespread power outages and a loss of most other utilities," according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
"Dangerous flash flooding, as well as storm surge flooding can cause low-lying areas and lower levels of some structures to be submerged for a number of hours," he added.
An AccuWeather StormMax™ of 30 inches is forecast over the northern Bahamas. A general 4-8 inches of rain in store along the southeast US Atlantic coast with an AccuWeather StormMax™ of 15 inches.
Impacts farther south will be significantly less on Eleuthera, New Providence and Andros Island in the Bahamas. However, conditions have been dangerous enough to keep some flights from arriving at Nassau International Airport in the Bahamas on Monday.
Dorian likely to just graze Florida east coast, but landfall still possible
While conditions have changed to cause a hurricane track that keeps the eye offshore of the east coast of Florida, there is still some risk for a shift farther west.
The storm from the Midwest may move so quickly into the Northeast states on Monday, that it may leave Dorian behind, in which case the hurricane would have to wait for another ride from a second non-tropical storm from the Midwest on Wednesday. However, the latter scenario is the least likely at this point.
Dorian should resume a northwest drift later Monday night and Tuesday.
People along the Florida east coast, north of West Palm Beach to Jacksonville Beach, should prepare for hurricane conditions, including the risk of property damage, coastal flooding, flooding from heavy rainfall, beach erosion, large waves and loss of power.
Areas farther inland to U.S. Route 441 in central Florida and Route 301 in northern Florida, should be prepared for tropical storm conditions with isolated power outages and urban flooding.
This means that places such as Fort Pierce, Melbourne, Daytona Beach and St. Augustine can expect hurricane-force gusts. It also means that Orlando and The Villages may experience a few tropical storm-force gusts with minimal impacts on Tampa, Miami and Fort Myers.
The farther offshore Dorian tracks, the less amount of rain will fall over the Florida Peninsula, southeastern Georgia, southeastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina.
But, since the storm may become more spread out as it travels farther northward along the Atlantic coast, the risk of heavy rain spreading inland will also increase.
The current AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes for Dorian is a 5 on the Bahamas, but a 2 on the mainland U.S.
However, because of the potential for more of a glancing blow on the Florida Peninsula, AccuWeather may lower this impact somewhat.
The RealImpact can differ from the Saffir-Simpson category rating. The Saffir-Simpson rating is based on peak winds alone. AccuWeather's RealImpact™ Scale is based on risks to lives and property from storm surge flooding and inland flooding due to rainfall, as well as wind strength.
Throughout the central and eastern counties of the Florida Peninsula, there will be the risk of isolated tornadoes, which includes the possibility of waterspouts along the immediate east coast.
The number of tornadoes, if any, will depend on the size and structure of the hurricane as it approaches and moves northward.
High tides will be running slightly higher than normal the next few days due to the closeness of the moon to the Earth. The last perigee (the time when the moon and Earth are closest together) just occurred on Aug. 30. High tides can run slightly higher than normal in and around the time of the perigee since the moon’s gravitational pull is stronger when it is closest to the Earth.
AccuWeather meteorologists will continue to monitor the progress and strength of Dorian, as well as other systems that may influence the storm, and make necessary adjustments as needed to the forecast.
Download the free AccuWeather app to stay alert of tropical and severe weather advisories. Keep checking back for updates on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
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