4th of July outlook 2019: Where will natural fireworks disrupt festivities?
Much of the nation can expect typical summery conditions, which include intense sunshine, heat and the risk of a thunderstorm for the Fourth of July.
According to AAA, a record-breaking number of Americans, 48.9 million, are expected to travel for Independence Day in 2019, including a record of 41.4 million people who will drive for their holiday getaways. July 3 is expected to be the busiest day for people hitting the road.
The main storm track will be near the Canada border during the first week of July. South of this storm track, summer warmth will be abundant and most thunderstorms will be few and far between.
Most major rivers over the spring flood-ravaged central United States will be receding.
Much of the nation can expect highs in the 80s and 90s F. This time of the year, on a sunny day with a high within a few degrees of 90, AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures often peak close to 100.
The traditional cool spots, such as immediate coastal areas from California to Washington state as well as the high country over much of the West, can expect highs in the 60s and 70s.
The greatest threat to outdoor gatherings and fireworks displays will be from mainly isolated thunderstorm activity. However, in most areas where a garden variety summer thunderstorm comes calling, it should only take up a small part of the day.
In early July, the nature of thunderstorms is such that they are most likely from the hours spanning 4 p.m. to 10 p.m., local time. This is the part of the day and evening when most people are engaged in outdoor activities on Independence Day.
The early outlook for Independence Day suggests that areas with a chance at being directly affected by or at least have a close call with a thunderstorm downpour will expand northward from the South and southern Plains to most of the Midwest and mid-Atlantic. The storms may stop short of most of New England.
Thunderstorms may also rattle the northern Rockies.
As is typical, the afternoon and evening hours will be most active. Showers and thunderstorms, however, can threaten festivities earlier in the day in some communities, especially across the nation's midsection and to the mid-Atlantic.
Heat and humidity are forecast to build during the first few days of days of July in the Northeast.
In Florida, a thunderstorm is also likely to bubble up just west of the Atlantic coastal cities over the peninsula at midday. These storms generally tend to wander westward through the central counties in the afternoon and finally the Gulf coast toward evening.
Aside from the northern Rockies, much of the West is likely to be free of rain on the Fourth of July.
There will be some exceptions to the brief, isolated thunderstorm projection, however.
While broad areas of steady rain are rare, complexes of thunderstorms that form can bring downpours that last more than an hour.
Exact areas where these complexes may form or travel through on July Fourth will not be known until a few days prior. However, the greatest risk of a large thunderstorm complex that affects a broad area will be across the central and northern Plains to the Midwest.
This time of the year, where thunderstorms form on one day may depend on the extent of rainfall from the day before. Rain the day before tends to cool the landscape and may inhibit thunderstorm formation in some cases the next day.
Whether it's a case of a small, slow-moving thunderstorm, or a large storm complex, isolated flash flooding and damaging winds cannot be ruled out. However, current indications are that these areas will be an exception and not widespread for this year's holiday.
For those camping outdoors or those with personal fireworks displays, be sure to check local ordinances that may prohibit such activities, including during drought conditions.
Use extreme caution with any sparks and open flames in parts of the Southeast, Northwest and southern Rockies, where abnormally dry and drought conditions exist and brush can easily ignite.
Bathers should be aware that water temperatures are far from their maximum levels of the summer during early July.
Cold water shock can occur in surprisingly mild temperatures.
Streams and lakes in the Rockies are like ice water due to runoff from melting snow over the high country. Waters are traditionally chilly along much of the Pacific coast and in eastern New England.
While no widespread areas of strong rip currents are anticipated, rip currents are always present in local areas and can strengthen and shift from one hour to the next with the changing tide.
One person drowned in a rip current near San Luis Pass, Texas on Thursday, June 27. Heed all warnings from lifeguards and notices from beach officials.
"For those living in or venturing to coastal areas, the Atlantic and waters along the immediate Pacific coast of the United States are expected to be free of organized tropical systems through the first week of July," according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
Tropical Storm Barbara currently southwest of Mexico is forecast to remain at sea. If the storm threatens Hawaii, it would not be until after next weekend.
Be sure to take breaks from vigorous exercise and stay hydrated to avoid becoming another casualty from heat exhaustion or heatstroke this holiday. Be sure to frequently check on young children and the elderly as the temperature climbs.
Don't forget your pets will need extra attention during hot weather. This includes if you will be leaving them home during the holiday.
Make sure your animals have access to a cool and shady location with plenty of fresh water available at all times.
Download the free AccuWeather app to check on the latest forecast for your outdoor plans and to stay aware of any severe weather watches and warnings. Keep checking back for updates on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
