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Unseasonably warm weather from Minneapolis to NYC will challenge records

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Published Nov 2, 2020 6:31 PM EDT | Updated Nov 4, 2020 8:39 PM EDT

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A November heat wave is about to take over a huge swath of the nation, spanning the Midwest and Northeast, and bring temperatures nearly 20 degrees above normal for some places that have picked up heavy snowfall in recent weeks.

Mother Nature is about to give anyone who is not yet ready for the onset of winter a little throwback to early fall in the form of a mini November heat wave. The upcoming pleasant weather pattern will allow people more time to rake leaves and prep homes and vehicles for winter – and even challenge a high-temperature record or two in places. On the other hand, winter lovers may need to put freshly-waxed skis off to the side for a couple more weeks.

The recent blast of wintry weather can be blamed on the jet stream, according to AccuWeather meteorologists. A sharp southward dip in the jet stream allowed cold air to empty southward from Canada and spill across the Great Lakes and Northeast states in two waves from Friday through Monday.

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That jet stream already began to retreat over the Northeast on Election Day and allowed temperatures to recover from winterlike levels by the afternoon.

During the middle and latter part of this week, the jet stream will flatten out and take on a more west to east configuration across the northern tier of the nation. During early November, the jet is usually set up from west to east, but also hundreds of miles farther to the south than where it is positioned in October.

"When the jet stream is forecast to be near the Canada border, big southward intrusions of cold air are unlikely and warmth is able to expand northward from the Southern states," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson.

During Wednesday afternoon, temperatures rebounded into the lower 70s in Minneapolis, the middle 50s in Boston, the middle 70s in Chicago and the middle 60s in Washington, D.C.

"Thursday into Friday, temperatures are going to be unseasonably warm, and it looks like this dry and warm spell will continue at least into this weekend,” AccuWeather On-Air Meteorologist Brittany Boyer said.

Forecasters expect the warmup to become even more significant across the Central and Eastern states by the weekend as the jet stream is projected to retreat even farther to the north.

"The setup for the weekend will allow very warm air for early November to build over much of the Central and Eastern states and even into part of south-central and southeastern Canada," Anderson said.

Afternoon temperatures may approach 70 in Chicago and Washington, D.C., and may climb well into the 60s in New York City and Boston on Saturday. Normal highs are in the mid-50s in Chicago and Boston, the low 60s in D.C., and the upper 50s in New York City during early November.

Some cities may even challenge record highs. In New York City, the forecast high of 71 degrees on Friday will come close to the record of 74 degrees set in 2015. In Minneapolis, some long-standing records may be in jeopardy. On Friday, the forecast high of 70 degrees will approach the record of 73 degrees set in 1893. Saturday, the high temperature of 69 degrees will challenge the record daily high of 72 set back in 1874 in the Twin Cities, where normal highs this time of year are around 50. On Sunday, the record high of 73 set in 1931 may be tied in Chicago.

The unusual warmth will arrive after Minneapolis residents experienced a taste of winter. The city picked up 9.3 inches of snowfall in late October, a month that normally brings just 0.6 of an inch. For the month of October, the city picked up 1,550% of normal snowfall.

Temperatures will reach even higher across areas farther to the south. In the South Central and Southeastern states, highs in the 70s will be widespread with temperatures topping out near 80 degrees along the Gulf Coast. Atlanta's normal highs are in the upper 60s and New Orlean's average highs for early November are in the mid-70s.

An extended period of dry weather will also accompany the warmth.

The dry and warm pattern will allow outdoor projects and construction to speed along with few problems. It may also allow for more comfortable outdoor dining in Midwestern and Northeastern cities.

Related:

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Hurricane Eta near Cat 5 strength as it closes in on Central America

It is possible that colder air and perhaps a return to winterlike conditions may transpire later next weekend to the second week of November over parts of the Central states, but warmth may hold on for several more days in the East during the second week of November. Record high temperatures in the Northeast are generally in the 70s over the region with some records in the lower 80s around the Chesapeake Bay. It may be possible for some record highs to be challenged in the Northeast next week.

As warmth congregates in the East next week, activity in the tropics may warrant some concern for part of the Southeastern states either due to Eta or a spinoff of Eta.

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

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