Tropical Cyclone Danilo may track over Mascarene Islands late this week
By
Adam Douty, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Updated Jan 8, 2021 8:12 PM EDT
The Popocatepetl volcano in Mexico launched plumes of gas and ash high into the air on Jan. 4. The National Center for Prevention of Disasters reports volcanic activity is expected to continue.
Tropical Cyclone Danilo has churned across the open waters of the southern Indian Ocean since the start of the new year, but a shift to a westward track could cause the cyclone to near land by the end of the week.
Danilo, a tropical depression that has been wavering between tropical depression and tropical storm strength on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, is expected to first near the Island of Rodrigues by the end of the week.
Continuing on this course, Mauritius and Reunion may also be in the cyclone's path as it curves to the south over the weekend.
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When passing near Rodrigues around the end of the week and early in the weekend, Danilo may be a moderate tropical storm intensity after regaining some intensity. Whether it strengthens again or not, heavy downpours can still threaten the island.
In general, squally conditions are expected as Danilo passes over the Mascarene Islands.
“Rainfall of 25-75 mm (1-3 inches) is expected across the Mascarene Islands with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 100 mm (4 inches),” AccuWeather Lead International Meteorologist Jason Nicholls said.
Nicholls also expects wind gusts of 65-80 km/h (40-50 mph) when Danilo makes its closest approach.
In addition to downing some weaker tree branches, these winds will also stir up dangerous surf later this week and into the weekend across the southwestern Indian Ocean.
If Danilo gains additional intensity as it tracks near or over any of the Mascarene Islands, rain and wind impacts could be greater.
Beyond passing near the Mascarene Islands, a turn to the south is expected. However, there remains some debate as to how quickly this turn happens. If it is slower to occur, Danilo can track closer to eastern Madagascar early next week.
Should Danilo track farther westward and bring impacts to eastern Madagascar, AccuWeather meteorologists currently do not expect impacts to be as significant as Severe Tropical Storm Chalane that crossed the country during late December.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
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News / Weather Forecasts
Tropical Cyclone Danilo may track over Mascarene Islands late this week
By Adam Douty, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Updated Jan 8, 2021 8:12 PM EDT
The Popocatepetl volcano in Mexico launched plumes of gas and ash high into the air on Jan. 4. The National Center for Prevention of Disasters reports volcanic activity is expected to continue.
Tropical Cyclone Danilo has churned across the open waters of the southern Indian Ocean since the start of the new year, but a shift to a westward track could cause the cyclone to near land by the end of the week.
Danilo, a tropical depression that has been wavering between tropical depression and tropical storm strength on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, is expected to first near the Island of Rodrigues by the end of the week.
Continuing on this course, Mauritius and Reunion may also be in the cyclone's path as it curves to the south over the weekend.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
When passing near Rodrigues around the end of the week and early in the weekend, Danilo may be a moderate tropical storm intensity after regaining some intensity. Whether it strengthens again or not, heavy downpours can still threaten the island.
In general, squally conditions are expected as Danilo passes over the Mascarene Islands.
“Rainfall of 25-75 mm (1-3 inches) is expected across the Mascarene Islands with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 100 mm (4 inches),” AccuWeather Lead International Meteorologist Jason Nicholls said.
Nicholls also expects wind gusts of 65-80 km/h (40-50 mph) when Danilo makes its closest approach.
In addition to downing some weaker tree branches, these winds will also stir up dangerous surf later this week and into the weekend across the southwestern Indian Ocean.
Related:
If Danilo gains additional intensity as it tracks near or over any of the Mascarene Islands, rain and wind impacts could be greater.
Beyond passing near the Mascarene Islands, a turn to the south is expected. However, there remains some debate as to how quickly this turn happens. If it is slower to occur, Danilo can track closer to eastern Madagascar early next week.
Should Danilo track farther westward and bring impacts to eastern Madagascar, AccuWeather meteorologists currently do not expect impacts to be as significant as Severe Tropical Storm Chalane that crossed the country during late December.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo