Rain forecast for Southeast, but it won’t end drought or wildfire concerns

The rain will provide some, but not total, relief through the rest of April amid extreme drought and wildfires in the Southeast.

Following a very dry start to spring, rounds of desperately needed rain are on the way to Southeast during the final few days of April. The wet weather will provide relief not only amid ongoing extreme drought conditions in the region but also with multiple, large wildfires raging.

"Nearly the entire southern United States remains in some classification of drought," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said. "However, some relief and meaningful rainfall are finally on the way."

The rain, arriving courtesy of multiple storms moving from the Central to the Eastern states, could total a few inches in rain gauges across parts of the Southeast from this weekend through the end of the month. Unfortunately, especially for those with agricultural interests, some of the areas with the worst drought will miss out on the heaviest rain.

Since the beginning of April, many areas in the Southeast have received less than 15 percent of the historical average rainfall. Atlanta, for example, has had just 3 percent of average rainfall in this timeframe. Going back to the start of the year, the rainfall deficits run in the several inches, which in many areas is less than half of what typically falls through the year's first four months.

The dry weather has caused drought to expand dramatically. According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor released on Thursday morning, the six-state Southeast climate region, which includes Alabama, Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas and Virginia, was enduring 99.81 percent drought coverage. The highest of four categories of drought—exceptional—was found over the Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia.

Tens of thousands of acres have also burned from ongoing wildfires, especially in Georgia, where 91 counties were under a state of emergency. As firefighters continue to battle the fires with water from helicopters and tankers, Mother Nature's water supply is on standby.

When will rain arrive to the Southeast?

The first rounds of rain will arrive from Friday night through Saturday night, from what's left of severe thunderstorms impacting the Plains and Mississippi Valley move across parts of Tennessee, Mississippi, Louisiana and Alabama. Rainfall from these initial rounds to start the weekend will total at least a half-inch in most areas and locally up to an inch or two in heavier storms.

According to NOAA calculations, it would take at least 20 inches of rain over a month in this region to end the drought. While it is a good start, the drought will be far from defeated this weekend.

"More rain than is coming this weekend is needed to cure a long-term drought," Pydynowski said. "This is especially true as we get into the critical timeframe of late April as gardens and farmland are being planted and since young seedlings are very susceptible to drought."

Meanwhile, areas farther east including northern Florida, South Carolina and Georgia, where the most damaging fires are raging, will receive less rain as the showers and storms will tend to fizzle as they venture off to the east later in the weekend. Still, even a small amount of rain will tremendously aid the firefighters battling the blazes, as well as assist in diminishing smoke and improving air quality in the region.

A couple of days of largely dry weather will then follow the rain from late in the weekend early into the workweek, but there will still be a few garden-variety showers and thunderstorms around. Still, it will not be the end of the much-needed wet weather.

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At least two, if not three, rounds of rain and thunderstorms are expected from the middle to late parts of next week, in the Tuesday through Friday timeframe, as yet more former severe storms push into the Southeast. Where exactly the heaviest rain moves is to be determined based on where each day's thunderstorms form upstream, but there is a decent chance that the wet weather can prove more widespread and beneficial than the weekend activity.

"A frontal boundary lying west to east will become nearly stationary across the Southern states later this week, and some moisture will flow northward out of the Gulf to interact with this stalled front," said Pydynowski. "This could yield a general 1-2 inches of rain with locally higher amounts from parts of Louisiana stretching eastward to Georgia and the Carolinas."

A large area of high pressure stretched from the Gulf to Florida will, however, keep much of the heavy rain away from the Sunshine State, which is unfortunate since 99 percent of the state is currently in drought conditions.

"Though some of this rain could get into the Florida Panhandle, much of it looks to remain along and north of the Interstate 10 corridor," added Pydynowski.

While the rain will be welcomed by most, it may not indicate a pattern change. According to AccuWeather's team of long range forecasters, drier-than-average conditions are again expected in much of the Southeast for the month of May.

Beyond that, conditions appear favorable for the drought to intensify further from June on, as will be highlighted in AccuWeather's summer forecast release on Wednesday.

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