Record-challenging warmth forecast for drought-weary North Central states
By
Jessica Storm, AccuWeather Meteorologist
Updated May 17, 2021 9:45 AM EDT
The Wadena Fire Department, performing controlled burning training on May 10, spotted this huge dust devil blowing across the dry landscape.
As the early part of the growing season continues in the northern Plains, heat will build this weekend, exacerbating drought conditions and raising concerns for an elevated wildfire risk from the northern Plains to south-central Canada.
Places like Rapid City, South Dakota, and Minneapolis started off last week about 10 degrees Fahrenheit below normal, but the warmth has been building steadily across the Plains.
Heavy rain and thunderstorms impacted areas of Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Oklahoma and Indiana on Sunday, and thunderstorms are expected to return for Denver and St. Louis.
Unfortunately, nearly all precipitation is expect to continue avoiding the most drought-stricken areas, including Bismarck, North Dakota, a city that is running at 48% of its normal rainfall so far this month and 40% since the beginning of 2021.
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About 85% of all North Dakota is experiencing extreme drought, according to the United States Drought Monitor, while 100% of the state is at least abnormally dry.
This extreme drought spills into other states and Canadian provinces, including South Dakota, Montana, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
With the upcoming heat, much of the region is forecast to dry out, bringing no relief to these areas in need of precipitation. The National Weather Service of Billings, Montana, posted an outlook from the Climate Prediction Center showing the warmer and drier future on the way for the Plains.
Building heat across the region will come to a climax this week, forecasters say.
Warmth will move from the Rockies to the Dakotas and into the Upper Midwest this week, according to AccuWeather long-range meteorologists. Temperature departures can range 7-14 degrees above normal in the Dakotas, Nebraska and Minnesota.
"Heat is forecast to build across the northern Plains and south-central Canada early this week as the jet stream moves well to the north," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Ryan Adamson.
"The highest temperatures are likely to be on Monday and Tuesday. While widespread 80s are expected, parts of northeastern Montana, southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba may reach the lower 90s," Adamson said.
Miles City, Montana, is expected to have temperatures rise into the mid-80s on Tuesday, which is quite toasty compared to the upper 60s the city generally has in mid-May.
"Although most places will fall short of records, there could be a few exceptions," said Adamson. Across the Canadian border, Winnipeg, Manitoba, is forecast to reach 90 degrees on Tuesday, approaching the 92 F record set in 1972.
In Regina, Saskatchewan, temperatures are anticipated to smash the 1901 record of 89 F by hitting 91 on Monday, then approach another record Tuesday.
With this week's intense heat, the risk for wildfires is expected to rise. Several fires ignited in April in the region, including the Horse Pasture Fire in North Dakota and the Schroeder Fire in South Dakota. Both of those fires covered thousands of acres.
Residents should take precautions to prevent wildfires, including reporting unattended campfires and properly disposing of cigarettes and matches.
Thankfully for fire danger and drought situations alike, this warm wave is not expected to stay extreme for very long.
"Well-above-normal temperatures are expected to continue into late this week, but 80s and lower 90s will be replaced by 70s and lower 80s by Thursday," Adamson said.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.
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News / Weather Forecasts
Record-challenging warmth forecast for drought-weary North Central states
By Jessica Storm, AccuWeather Meteorologist
Updated May 17, 2021 9:45 AM EDT
The Wadena Fire Department, performing controlled burning training on May 10, spotted this huge dust devil blowing across the dry landscape.
As the early part of the growing season continues in the northern Plains, heat will build this weekend, exacerbating drought conditions and raising concerns for an elevated wildfire risk from the northern Plains to south-central Canada.
Places like Rapid City, South Dakota, and Minneapolis started off last week about 10 degrees Fahrenheit below normal, but the warmth has been building steadily across the Plains.
Heavy rain and thunderstorms impacted areas of Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Oklahoma and Indiana on Sunday, and thunderstorms are expected to return for Denver and St. Louis.
Unfortunately, nearly all precipitation is expect to continue avoiding the most drought-stricken areas, including Bismarck, North Dakota, a city that is running at 48% of its normal rainfall so far this month and 40% since the beginning of 2021.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
About 85% of all North Dakota is experiencing extreme drought, according to the United States Drought Monitor, while 100% of the state is at least abnormally dry.
This extreme drought spills into other states and Canadian provinces, including South Dakota, Montana, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
With the upcoming heat, much of the region is forecast to dry out, bringing no relief to these areas in need of precipitation. The National Weather Service of Billings, Montana, posted an outlook from the Climate Prediction Center showing the warmer and drier future on the way for the Plains.
Building heat across the region will come to a climax this week, forecasters say.
Warmth will move from the Rockies to the Dakotas and into the Upper Midwest this week, according to AccuWeather long-range meteorologists. Temperature departures can range 7-14 degrees above normal in the Dakotas, Nebraska and Minnesota.
"Heat is forecast to build across the northern Plains and south-central Canada early this week as the jet stream moves well to the north," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Ryan Adamson.
"The highest temperatures are likely to be on Monday and Tuesday. While widespread 80s are expected, parts of northeastern Montana, southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba may reach the lower 90s," Adamson said.
Miles City, Montana, is expected to have temperatures rise into the mid-80s on Tuesday, which is quite toasty compared to the upper 60s the city generally has in mid-May.
"Although most places will fall short of records, there could be a few exceptions," said Adamson. Across the Canadian border, Winnipeg, Manitoba, is forecast to reach 90 degrees on Tuesday, approaching the 92 F record set in 1972.
In Regina, Saskatchewan, temperatures are anticipated to smash the 1901 record of 89 F by hitting 91 on Monday, then approach another record Tuesday.
With this week's intense heat, the risk for wildfires is expected to rise. Several fires ignited in April in the region, including the Horse Pasture Fire in North Dakota and the Schroeder Fire in South Dakota. Both of those fires covered thousands of acres.
Related:
Residents should take precautions to prevent wildfires, including reporting unattended campfires and properly disposing of cigarettes and matches.
Thankfully for fire danger and drought situations alike, this warm wave is not expected to stay extreme for very long.
"Well-above-normal temperatures are expected to continue into late this week, but 80s and lower 90s will be replaced by 70s and lower 80s by Thursday," Adamson said.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo