Fire threat to remain high in tinder-dry Southwest
Blazes are burning across Arizona and New Mexico, and the weather conditions into the weekend will be prime for more wildfires to break out across the parched landscape.
By
Ryan Adamson, AccuWeather meteorologist
Published Apr 28, 2022 7:50 AM EDT
|
Updated Apr 29, 2022 3:21 PM EDT
As of Monday, April 25, the Road 702 Fire has burned over 41,000 acres, causing one fatality near Cambridge, Nebraska, with windy conditions expected through midweek.
A dry winter and early spring have left the Southwest in need of moisture, but AccuWeather forecasters say none is on the horizon through the rest of the month.
"This does not bode well for a region facing levels of extreme and exceptional drought," AccuWeather Meteorologist Alyssa Smithmyer said.
The United States Drought Monitor has nearly the entire region categorized in some level of drought. New Mexico and West Texas are where the largest expanse of extreme and exceptional drought is located, the worst drought levels on the U.S. Drought Monitor scale.
The drought is bad enough on its own, but it has been exacerbated by above-normal temperatures and consistently windy days. This has accelerated the process of drying out what little moisture is in the ground and vegetation. Unfortunately, more strong winds are expected this week.
"An uptick in winds will occur into Friday evening across the Southwest, with wind gusts that can reach 35-45 mph at times," stated Smithmyer.
The gusty winds combined with the dry vegetation will lead to an extremely high fire danger into the weekend across most of the Four Corners region and into part of the southern Plains.
The dry conditions have already contributed to multiple fires. One of the most notable blazes is the Tunnel Fire to the northeast of Flagstaff, Arizona. This area has hardly had any precipitation this month.
"Flagstaff has only observed 2% of its normal precipitation this month, with 0.02 of an inch recorded compared to the normal of 0.89 of an inch," said Smithmyer.
For the year, only 3.01 inches of rain and melted snow have fallen in Flagstaff, a far cry from the 6.99 inches which typically fall from January through April. Snowfall for the entire winter has been just 56.2 inches in Flagstaff, well shy of the 89.0 inches that normally falls through the end of April.
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The dryness, warmth and bouts of wind have made it difficult for firefighters to gain the upper hand on the aforementioned Tunnel Fire, which began on Sunday, April 17. The blaze has burned well over 10,000 acres and destroyed at least two dozen structures.
"The Tunnel Fire has nearly reached 20,000 acres and is roughly 89% contained," said Smithmyer.
In this photo provided by the Coconino National Forest, the Tunnel Fire burns near Flagstaff, Ariz., on Tuesday, April 19, 2022. (Coconino National Forest via AP)
Another fire that has gained attention in Arizona is the Crooks Fire, located southwest of the Tunnel Fire. The Crooks Fire is not as large but is also less contained.
"The Crooks Fire is at almost 10,000 acres and is just 27% contained," noted Smithmyer.
There are multiple other fires burning in the region, with over half a dozen in New Mexico alone.
There are also two fires burning in the panhandle of Texas. While no rain will fall through at least the first week of May in Arizona and New Mexico, slightly better news may be in the offing for Texas.
As a disturbance in the jet stream moves by just to the north Sunday, thunderstorms with locally heavy rain may fall in the Texas Panhandle. However, severe weather may also be a concern and some thunderstorms may contain more lightning than rain, which will elevate the risk of igniting new fires.
Although no rain is expected farther west, it appears that winds next week will not be as gusty as recently. Therefore, while new fires can still start given the dry conditions, any fires are likely to spread less rapidly, and firefighters may be able to gain more of an upper hand on the fires already ongoing.
For the latest weather news check back on AccuWeather.com. Watch the AccuWeather Network on DIRECTV, Frontier, Spectrum, fuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios. AccuWeather Now is now available on your preferred streaming platform.
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News / Weather Forecasts
Fire threat to remain high in tinder-dry Southwest
Blazes are burning across Arizona and New Mexico, and the weather conditions into the weekend will be prime for more wildfires to break out across the parched landscape.
By Ryan Adamson, AccuWeather meteorologist
Published Apr 28, 2022 7:50 AM EDT | Updated Apr 29, 2022 3:21 PM EDT
As of Monday, April 25, the Road 702 Fire has burned over 41,000 acres, causing one fatality near Cambridge, Nebraska, with windy conditions expected through midweek.
A dry winter and early spring have left the Southwest in need of moisture, but AccuWeather forecasters say none is on the horizon through the rest of the month.
"This does not bode well for a region facing levels of extreme and exceptional drought," AccuWeather Meteorologist Alyssa Smithmyer said.
The United States Drought Monitor has nearly the entire region categorized in some level of drought. New Mexico and West Texas are where the largest expanse of extreme and exceptional drought is located, the worst drought levels on the U.S. Drought Monitor scale.
The drought is bad enough on its own, but it has been exacerbated by above-normal temperatures and consistently windy days. This has accelerated the process of drying out what little moisture is in the ground and vegetation. Unfortunately, more strong winds are expected this week.
"An uptick in winds will occur into Friday evening across the Southwest, with wind gusts that can reach 35-45 mph at times," stated Smithmyer.
The gusty winds combined with the dry vegetation will lead to an extremely high fire danger into the weekend across most of the Four Corners region and into part of the southern Plains.
The dry conditions have already contributed to multiple fires. One of the most notable blazes is the Tunnel Fire to the northeast of Flagstaff, Arizona. This area has hardly had any precipitation this month.
"Flagstaff has only observed 2% of its normal precipitation this month, with 0.02 of an inch recorded compared to the normal of 0.89 of an inch," said Smithmyer.
For the year, only 3.01 inches of rain and melted snow have fallen in Flagstaff, a far cry from the 6.99 inches which typically fall from January through April. Snowfall for the entire winter has been just 56.2 inches in Flagstaff, well shy of the 89.0 inches that normally falls through the end of April.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
The dryness, warmth and bouts of wind have made it difficult for firefighters to gain the upper hand on the aforementioned Tunnel Fire, which began on Sunday, April 17. The blaze has burned well over 10,000 acres and destroyed at least two dozen structures.
"The Tunnel Fire has nearly reached 20,000 acres and is roughly 89% contained," said Smithmyer.
In this photo provided by the Coconino National Forest, the Tunnel Fire burns near Flagstaff, Ariz., on Tuesday, April 19, 2022. (Coconino National Forest via AP)
Another fire that has gained attention in Arizona is the Crooks Fire, located southwest of the Tunnel Fire. The Crooks Fire is not as large but is also less contained.
"The Crooks Fire is at almost 10,000 acres and is just 27% contained," noted Smithmyer.
There are multiple other fires burning in the region, with over half a dozen in New Mexico alone.
There are also two fires burning in the panhandle of Texas. While no rain will fall through at least the first week of May in Arizona and New Mexico, slightly better news may be in the offing for Texas.
As a disturbance in the jet stream moves by just to the north Sunday, thunderstorms with locally heavy rain may fall in the Texas Panhandle. However, severe weather may also be a concern and some thunderstorms may contain more lightning than rain, which will elevate the risk of igniting new fires.
Although no rain is expected farther west, it appears that winds next week will not be as gusty as recently. Therefore, while new fires can still start given the dry conditions, any fires are likely to spread less rapidly, and firefighters may be able to gain more of an upper hand on the fires already ongoing.
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