Southeast coast eyed for potential tropical impacts around July 4th
In the wake of Andrea's short tenure over the open Atlantic, tropical trouble can soon occur closer to home, with a risk of development from the eastern Gulf to the southeastern Atlantic in early July.
Dramatic footage from Largo, Florida, shows a house being lifted into the air by fierce storm winds. Inside was 76-year-old Deborah, who miraculously survived the terrifying ordeal. Her daughter, Stephanie Glenn, told ABC News, “I don’t know how she survived… she got thrown around and beat up pretty bad but is okay.”
Amid a relatively quiet start to the 2025 hurricane season, AccuWeather tropical experts are honing in on an area of interest near the Southeast coast that could impact Fourth of July weekend plans in the region.
Only one storm has been named in the Atlantic basin—Andrea—which didn't last 24 hours earlier this week. If development occurs near the Southeast coast early next month, any new tropical storm would take on the name Barry.
Thunderstorms a precursor to potential development
Before any potential tropical development occurs near the Southeast coast, AccuWeather meteorologists warn that thunderstorms will prevail over the next week.
"Soon after the heat peaks over the interior Southeast, the pattern will transition into one that favors an increase in showers and thunderstorms into early July," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
While much of the Southeast is drought-free, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor released on Thursday morning, portions of the Florida Peninsula will get much-needed rain over the next several days, much to the chagrin of Sunshine State vacationers.
"Sometimes, when a summertime dip in the jet stream lingers near the Gulf or the southwestern Atlantic, it can lead to gradual tropical development," added Sosnowski.
In fact, this area is no stranger to early-season tropical activity in any given season.
"The Gulf and the Atlantic just off the Southeast coast are typical formation areas early in July," said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva. "A cold front will dive off the coast late next week, and it may act as a catalyst for development either in the eastern Gulf or off the Southeast coast."
Because of this potential, AccuWeather hurricane experts have introduced a low chance for tropical development in this broad region for the period July 4 to 7.
"Wind shear, an inhibitor to development, is expected to be fairly low in the outlooked area, and ocean water temperatures in the Gulf are above average," added DaSilva. "If anything forms, heavy rainfall looks to be the primary impact."
Tropical downpours in the region in early July can drop more than an inch rain in a short amount of time, which, despite the sandy soil in Florida and the rest of the region near the coast, can briefly overwhelm some storm drains and lead to ponding on roads and highways.
The spin in the atmosphere can also lead to waterspouts near the coast, which, combined with heavy rain, can ruin beach days. Any more significant impacts in the form of strong winds, coastal erosion or tidal flooding will depend on if a tropical storm can develop over the Fourth of July weekend.
In the short term, an area in the southwestern Gulf is being watched for tropical development during the last couple of days of June. The life cycle of such a storm would be brief, as steering breezes would likely direct tropical downpours and gusty winds onshore in Mexico.
Elsewhere in the tropics, conditions remain mostly quiet
With the hurricane season nearly a month old in the Atlantic and a month and a half past its start in the Eastern Pacific, the next couple of weeks are largely expected to be quiet, AccuWeather meteorologists predict.
Unlike the Atlantic basin, the Eastern Pacific has experienced a flurry of activity to start the season, with five storms already named, including two that became hurricanes. There is another tropical entity to track in the eastern Pacific over the next several days.
"A tropical rainstorm has developed south of Mexico and is forecast to parallel the coast over into next week," DaSilva said, "The tropical rainstorm is expected to become a tropical storm late this weekend or early next week as it moves northwest."
The next name on the list would be Flossie.
While most of the wind will remain offshore, heavy rain can still occur across southwestern Mexico. The rainfall can lead to flooding and localized mudslides in the higher terrain.
The rainstorm will also bring dangerous waves and rip currents to the Mexican coast through next week. If the rainstorm tracks closer to the coast, there can be higher rainfall amounts and possibly damaging winds.
Due to flooding rain, this tropical rainstorm is a 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in Mexico.
Meanwhile, outside of the area of potential development near the Southeast U.S. and Mexican coasts, the rest of the Atlantic basin, from the Caribbean to the central and northern Atlantic, is expected to remain quiet for at least the first 10 days of July, much to the delight of Caribbean vacationers.
Frequent pockets of Saharan dust moving off the African continent, as well as wind shear, both deterrents for tropical storm organization and development, are expected to prevail, according to DaSilva.
Despite the slow start to the season, AccuWeather tropical experts, led by DaSilva, continue to call for a busy season, with 13-18 named storms forecast to form into the fall.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, while the Eastern Pacific season is a little longer, lasting from May 15 to Nov. 30.
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