Hurricane Erin to fluctuate in strength as dangers increase along US coast
Mighty Hurricane Erin will cruise waters just east of the United States this week. Even if the center of the hurricane remains offshore, far-reaching and dangerous impacts will be felt at the beaches.
Being a Category 1 hurricane, Erin underwent a ‘rapid intensification’ which helped the storm to grow and strengthen to a powerful Category 5. AccuWeather’s Melissa Constanzer explains how.
Hurricane Erin is forecast by AccuWeather meteorologists to experience fluctuations in wind intensity while taking a curved path between the United States and Bermuda in the week ahead.
As of Sunday midday, Erin's maximum sustained winds were 125 mph, making it a Category 3 hurricane with the eye about 200 miles to the north-northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico. Erin was moving west-northwest at 13 mph.
This image of Major Hurricane Erin was captured on Sunday morning, Aug. 17, 2025. Despite a (temporary) decrease in wind intensity, the wind and rain shield from the hurricane was growing in size while just north of the Caribbean. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
Erin has experienced a common hurricane phenomenon called an eyewall replacement, AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said.
"This means that as the old eyewall expands outward, a new eyewall forms closer to the center," Buckingham explained. "Top winds often ease back during this cycle, but it is followed by another surge in wind intensity as the new eye completes organization."
Feeder bands extending outward from the hurricane have been and will continue to produce torrential downpours, flash flooding and mudslides in Puerto Rico and some of the surrounding islands in the northern Caribbean with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 14 inches. Strong wind gusts in the feeder bands can trigger sporadic power outages. The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in the Caribbean is less than one.
Erin has thus far been steered along by the large clockwise circulation around high pressure over the central Atlantic. As Erin moves along the backside of this high, it will turn more to the northwest and then to the north early this week.
Later this week, the jet stream should begin to grab hold of Erin and guide it northeastward. The timing of that steering breeze takeover is critical to the exact path Erin will take in terms of proximity to the U.S. coast.
While the highly dangerous eyewall of the storm is most likely to remain at sea, the area size of Erin will increase over time. Combined with any shifts in track, this could bring tropical storm to hurricane conditions to parts of the U.S. Atlantic Coast, Bermuda and, later this week, Atlantic Canada.
For example, should Erin's track shift westward by 100 miles or so, eastern North Carolina could experience tropical storm conditions. As of Sunday morning, tropical storm winds (39 mph or greater) extend outward from the center up to 205 miles. Hurricane winds (74 mph or greater) associated with the eyewall extend outward up to 25 miles.
The dashed red line represents AccuWeather meteorologists’ forecast path for the eye of the hurricane. The gray shaded areas on either side of the forecast path represent alternative paths the hurricane could take based on changing steering conditions. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions will extend well beyond the track of the eye.
Erin's already large size and intensity are acting like a giant plunger on the sea surface. Large swells generated by the winds can reach 50 feet or more near the center and propagate outward. While the swells will lose some energy moving away from the center, as large swells approach coastal areas, waves in much of the surf zone along the U.S. Atlantic Coast will average 5-10 feet at peak this week. However, beaches that extend out into the ocean, such as in North Carolina's Outer Banks, eastern Long Island, New York, and Cape Cod, Massachusetts, can experience waves of 10-15 feet.
The magnitude of the waves in the surf zone and offshore will depend on the track and intensity of Erin as it approaches and moves by offshore.
Ocean-going vessel operators should be aware that wave heights can increase dramatically just a few miles offshore. Cruise and shipping interests may want to avoid Erin and the hurricane's massive seas.
Rip currents, which are always present in the surf zone, will increase in strength and number from south to north along the U.S. Atlantic coast as the week progresses.
The combination of pounding waves and strong rip currents will create dangerous conditions in the surf zone. Swimmers are urged to abide by local authorities, which may limit swimming or close some beaches that are not under lifeguard protection.
Portions of the Outer Banks and the Virginia beaches will experience a storm surge up to several feet with wave action on top. This condition will lead to significant coastal flooding and beach erosion. Since North Carolina's Highway 12 is near sea level, significant overwash and closures are possible on the roadway beginning around midweek.
Impacts in Bermuda, Atlantic Canada
Since Erin's eye is forecast to pass well west of Bermuda, the islands will be spared a direct hit and the worst wind and rain conditions from the hurricane. However, dangerous seas and surf conditions are expected around the islands from Tuesday to Thursday.
Based on the current track and anticipated size and strength of Erin, the islands could experience tropical storm conditions. Any eastward shift in Erin's track would bring more significant conditions to the islands.
Beyond the Caribbean, the U.S. and Bermuda, it is possible that the closest landmass that Erin may approach is southeastern Newfoundland in the Canadian province of Newfoundland and Labrador.
The projected timetable for the possible close encounter on Friday. During this time, some transformation to a non-tropical storm may be underway, which could cause the shield of rain and extent of strong winds to push outward from the center even more.
Beyond Canada, the next land masses that Erin could affect are Iceland or the United Kingdom as a tropical wind and rainstorm later next weekend and beyond.
Brief history of Erin
Despite days of battling cool water and dry air earlier last week, Erin found its stride from Thursday to Saturday as it moved over much warmer water, surrounded itself with moisture and experienced low disruptive breezes (low wind shear).
Erin experienced one of the most rapid intensification cycles on record late this past week, going from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in just over a day--27 hours, 20 minutes to be exact. At 8 a.m. on Friday, Erin was a 70-mph tropical storm. At 11 a.m. on Friday, Erin's strength had edged to hurricane intensity at 75 mph. However, from 11 a.m. on Friday to 11 a.m. on Saturday, Erin increased to a 155-mph Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale. Just minutes later, as fresh data arrived from hurricane hunter aircraft, Erin became a 160-mph Category 5.
This marks the fourth straight season with at least one Category 5 hurricane. Last year brought two Category 5 storms, Beryl and Milton. Beryl was the earliest Category 5 on record, dating back to July 1. The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is still ahead--in September.
Beyond Erin
AccuWeather meteorologists continue to monitor the Atlantic for additional tropical troublemakers. Two areas associated with low pressure (tropical waves) moving west from Africa are being tracked.
Both of these waves have a low risk of developing. However, as conditions in their path change, this risk could increase or decrease in the days ahead. The tropical wave train, or Cabo Verde season, named for a group of islands just off the African coast, represents the backbone of the Atlantic hurricane season.
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