Flooding downpours, severe storms and travel delays upcoming for central US
A strengthening storm will spread heavy rain and severe thunderstorms from Texas to Missouri, raising the risk for flash flooding, travel disruptions, and damaging winds from later Wednesday to Friday.
Rainy weather is expected to cause delays at airports in San Francisco and Los Angeles, while windy weather will significantly disrupt air travel throughout the Northeast in the afternoon of Nov. 17.
Heavy rain spreading across parts of the central United States from Wednesday to Friday will create hazardous travel conditions but could also bring some benefits to areas experiencing drought. Severe thunderstorms are also expected in parts of the region, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.
A storm system moving over California and the Southwest early in the week will track eastward into the southern and central Plains by midweek, producing a corridor of heavy rain and thunderstorms.
Problems from the rain
Downpours will stretch from central Texas to Missouri, southern Illinois and western Kentucky and may lead to urban and stream flooding.
Rain could fall at rates of up to an inch per hour, which can overwhelm storm drains and cause small streams to rise quickly, even in areas experiencing drought or abnormally dry conditions. Fallen leaves can block storm drains, increase street flooding and make some roadways slick. Low water crossings may be too dangerous to pass through safely.
The area at the highest risk for flash flooding will stretch from near Austin and Dallas to Tulsa, Oklahoma, and Springfield, Missouri. Pockets of the hilly terrain in the Ozarks will also pose an elevated risk of flash flooding. Across this corridor, 2–6 inches of rain are forecast to fall over two to three days, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 10 inches most likely to occur in parts of the Ozarks.
Warm, humid air moving northward from the Gulf will interact with the strengthening storm system, increasing the likelihood of severe thunderstorms and a more focused area of damaging weather.
Thunderstorms to turn severe
Locally gusty thunderstorms are forecast to develop on Wednesday afternoon from southwestern Texas to southwestern Missouri. The greatest risk of severe weather will occur after dark on Wednesday, with some storms producing wind gusts of 50–60 mph and an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ gust of 75 mph.
From Thursday into Thursday night, the risk of severe weather is expected to peak across the South Central states. Some of the strongest storms during this period could produce large hail, a few tornadoes and powerful wind gusts.
Areas from near Dallas to Tulsa, Oklahoma, and Fayetteville, Arkansas, are likely to face a moderate risk of severe weather, according to AccuWeather meteorologists.
On Friday, a few locally severe thunderstorms may develop near and east of the Mississippi River.
Rain could ease low Mississippi River levels
While the heaviest downpours are expected across the Red River Basin, covering southern Oklahoma and northern Texas, beneficial rainfall will also reach portions of the Arkansas, Missouri and the middle Mississippi and Ohio basins. Drought conditions have led to a decline in river levels over the past few months.
Water levels on the Mississippi and Ohio rivers have dropped so low that tug and barge operations have been limited. These are essential for the low-cost transportation of goods and grains in the Midwest.
Another storm may roll across the Mississippi River basin during the week of Thanksgiving and has the potential to contribute to another rise in water levels.
The storm next week could lead to significant travel problems ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.
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