Drought lowering Mississippi River levels again, disrupting shipping
Water levels on the Mississippi and lower Ohio Rivers are dropping again, threatening barge traffic and commerce as drought conditions persist with little sign of relief in the coming weeks.
For the third time in four years, unusually low rainfall has caused water levels on the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers to drop significantly, disrupting safe navigation and leading to major shipping delays as barges are forced to lighten loads or wait for deeper passage.
Water levels on portions of the Mississippi and lower Ohio rivers have dropped low enough to significantly hinder shipping across the inland waterway system.
This marks the third year in four that drought has been extensive and long-lasting enough in the Mississippi Basin to disrupt normal tug and barge operations. During the autumns of 2022 and 2023, parts of the river system reached record low levels. Last autumn, water levels were near or above historical averages.
Low-water restrictions on the barge loads make for cautious navigation through the Mississippi River, as evidenced by this tow passing between the river bridges in Vicksburg, Tuesday, Oct. 11, 2022. The unusually low water level in the lower Mississippi River can cause some barges and vessels to get stuck in the muddy river bottom, resulting in delays as reported by the U.S. Coast Guard. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)
Since late this summer, conditions have shifted significantly from spring and early summer, when drought was minimal across the Mississippi Basin and excessive rainfall led to flash flooding.
With no major Pacific systems or tropical storms from the Gulf reaching the region in recent weeks, prolonged summer heat followed by long stretches of dry autumn air have taken a toll on the waterway. Negative water gauge readings are now being reported at multiple locations along the middle Mississippi River. These negative readings indicate that the water surface has fallen below the reference zero level established when the gauge was installed.
Changes to the channel bottom may result from natural erosion and dredging over time.
AccuWeather meteorologists expect occasional thunderstorms and spotty rainfall over the coming weeks. As a result, levels may not reach record lows from recent years, but could come within a couple of feet at times.
Brief periods of rain or thunderstorms may temporarily slow the decline in water levels and provide a slight, short-term rise. A widespread, slow-moving storm lasting several days is needed to reverse the current downward trend and get water levels back up for safe navigation of full loads over the river system.
There are no signs of such a storm developing soon over the middle Mississippi River or the lower Ohio River.
A brief round of showers and thunderstorms occurred into Sunday across the Mississippi and Ohio River valleys, but that rainfall will only bring small and brief positive changes to water levels.
Tug and barge transport is a highly cost-effective alternative to trucking for moving goods, raw materials and grain. When water levels fall significantly, the navigable channel narrows and becomes shallower.
Numerous shoals may be present, and tug operations have to limit the load within barges and the number of barges they can safely push up and down the river system. Operators aim to avoid grounding, which can block the shipping channel and cause significant delays.
Reducing load sizes and barge counts lowers efficiency and may result in increased costs passed on to consumers.
FILE - Barges float in the Mississippi River as a portion of the riverbed is exposed, on Sept. 15, 2023, in St. Louis. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson, File)
"There is potential for rain events producing quick runoff during November, December and January," said AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok. "However, that concern mainly involves dry ground and urban or small stream flooding, not a meaningful rise in the larger rivers."
The greatest likelihood for this type of rainfall will be in the lower Mississippi River and its delta region, rather than the middle portion from Memphis, Tennessee, to St. Louis and the lower end of the Ohio from Cairo, Illinois, to Louisville, Kentucky.
AccuWeather meteorologists will continue to monitor the situation on the Mississippi River for any changes in storm tracks or large-scale, slow-moving storms that could have a long-term positive impact on water levels.
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