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Coolest air since May coming to the Northeast as fall begins

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Published Sep 19, 2022 1:09 PM EDT | Updated Sep 21, 2022 5:51 AM EDT

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A new survey commissioned by Stuffed Puffs has found that 56% of Americans feel happiest in the fall, with 51% saying the best part of fall was watching the leaves change color.

AccuWeather meteorologists say that the strongest wave of cool air since May will arrive across the Northeast just in time for the official start of fall, which begins at 9:03 p.m. EDT Thursday with the autumnal equinox.

During the transition to fall, the sun’s direct rays will pass over the Equator and then continue to move southward as fall continues into mid-December.

And, right on cue, the air will turn chilly enough to send people reaching for long sleeves, jackets and fleeces as lows will plummet into the upper 30s and 40s across the interior and the 50s in many of the Interstate 95 cities from New York City all the way down to Philadelphia, Washington, D.C., and Richmond, Virginia, during the latter part of this week and into this weekend.

Daytime high temperatures will trend downward significantly. For example, in New York City, following highs in the lower 80s on Wednesday, temperatures are likely to be in the middle 70s on Thursday. The temperature drop will be even more noticeable as highs on Friday and Saturday are projected to top out in the 60s. A breeze stirring during the daytime hours on Thursday and Friday will contribute to AccuWeather RealFeel Shade™ levels 10 degrees or lower than the actual temperature.

Not only will it feel like fall throughout the region, but it may look the part in the coldest spots. Some areas may even experience a brief winter preview.

"The first snowflakes of the season may be seen across northern New England and northeastern New York state, especially in the mountains where some of the ridges and peaks could see a light accumulation from late Thursday to Friday," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said.

The cool air will reach into much of the Southeast states as well. Nighttime temperatures in the 40s will also be felt throughout the southern Appalachians, with lows in the 50s in store for Charlotte, North Carolina, Atlanta, and Columbia, South Carolina, with a significant reduction in humidity during the day.

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The same push of cool air and the associated large southward dip in the jet stream will work together to keep the already dangerous and destructive Hurricane Fiona at sea. Fiona unleashed feet of rain, massive flooding, widespread power outages and property damage after making landfall in Puerto Rico and then slamming into the Dominican Republic.

Despite the fact that Fiona will remain several hundred miles to the east of the U.S. Atlantic coast, the hurricane has reached Category 4 status and will stir large waves all the way to the East Coast.

Large swells, pounding surf and dangerous rip currents are expected up and down the Eastern Seaboard from mid- to late week. People heading to the beaches for a late-summer and early fall getaway may not be able to go in the water, forecasters say. After passing dangerously close to Bermuda on Thursday, Fiona could slam head-on into Newfoundland, Canada, this weekend.

Even though Fiona will remain out to sea, the region will not dodge stormy weather altogether. A reinforcing blast of cool air will follow the first one across the region, and the fall-like air will be accompanied by unsettled conditions.

Douty said a strong cold front will bring in the main push of cool air by midweek.

"A line of showers and thunderstorms will cross the region with torrential rainfall, hail, locally damaging wind gusts and even isolated tornadoes from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night," said Douty.

The air will turn chilly enough as winds slacken and skies clear out to set the stage for a possible frost on Friday night and perhaps Saturday night across cold spots of northern New England, northeastern New York state, northern Pennsylvania and in the valleys of West Virginia.

Should frost occur in the chilly spots of the Northeast late this week and/or this weekend, it would be close to average to a couple of weeks early.

Some day-to-day swings in temperature are likely from this weekend through next week as brief waves of warm and cool air take turns pressing through the region.

More to read:

AccuWeather's 2022 US fall foliage forecast
Rainfall from deadly Hurricane Fiona tops 30 inches in Puerto Rico
Bermuda and Canada next in line for Hurricane Fiona's wrath

Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.

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