Coastal storm won’t erase budding drought concerns in Northeast
Rain has been scarce in parts of the East this month, and a storm this weekend is not likely to assuage growing drought fears. Looking ahead to later in the month, forecasters say there is the potential for tropical activity along the Southeast coast of the United States.
A storm off the East Coast will bring rain and thunderstorms from Florida to New England this weekend. AccuWeather forecasters say the Northeast will be on a drying trend next week while the Southeast will remain unsettled.
Abnormally dry conditions have been expanding in the eastern United States recently, and while a coastal storm on Saturday delivered much needed rain and even urban flooding in some areas, rainfall may be too sporadic, brief and light elsewhere to have much impact, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
From May 1-19, rainfall had been 10% of the historical average or less in a number of major cities in the Northeast including Boston, New York City and Washington, D.C. Rainfall for much of the region as a whole is generally 25% of the historical average or less.
When combined with frequent bouts of wind, dry air and intense sunshine, the topsoil becomes dry. These soil conditions may make it easier for farmers when it comes time to plow and plant to get equipment in the fields, but they are not conducive to actually growing crops. Rain is needed on a non-excessive, regular basis.
The steadiest rain from Saturday's storm was largely focused in New England, as well as along the Mid-Atlantic coast. The edge of the rain carved through many urban areas along the Interstate 95 corridor; while Philadelphia only picked up 0.16 inches of rain on Saturday, over three quarters of an inch was received nearby in New York City.
Southeast New England saw some of the day's heaviest rain, with swept through the region during the evening hours. Boston reported 1.79 inches on Saturday, with rain still falling around midnight local time. Providence, Rhode Island may have seen some of the most intense rain of the event, picking up an inch in less than 1 hour. In total, over 3 inches of rain fell there, which is well over the average monthly rainfall for the city.
Swath of heavy rain moving through southeast New England late Saturday evening. (AccuWeather)
Farther to the west, lighter and more sporadic rain was observed as a cold front swept through the region. Baltimore received 0.13 inches of rain from the event, while State College, Pennsylvania saw 0.17 inches. Rain was somewhat heavier farther west, with Pittsburgh and Buffalo both picking up just under half an inch of rain. While this marked a notable change from recent dry days, forecasters caution that is may not be enough to stave off a possible drought in the upcoming weeks.
In the wake of the storm, dry air will sweep from the Midwest to much of the Northeast on Sunday, which will end up being the better of the two days of the weekend for outdoor plans and travel in most locations.
With the weekend storm departing, much of this week will be rain-free in the Midwest and Northeast. This will bring pleasant weather to the region but could allow the abnormally dry conditions to worsen.
Part of the reason there has not been a lot of moisture around from the Midwest to the Northeast in recent weeks has to do with two separate branches of the jet stream, according to AccuWeather Senior Long-Range Meteorologist Joe Lundberg.
"The southern branch, from near the Mexico border to the southeastern U.S. mainland, has been capturing most of the moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and preventing it from reaching the Midwest and Northeast on a consistent basis," Lundberg said.
Despite this, much of Florida has been dealing with abnormally dry to drought conditions. Downpours have been largely confined to the southeastern part of the peninsula in the weeks since a historical amount of rain flooded the Fort Lauderdale area in mid-April. On April 12, 1–3 feet of rain fell on portions of southeastern Florida due to a stalled front and slow-moving, repeating thunderstorms. Portions of the city and the airport were flooded for more than 24 hours.
Drought has reached extreme levels along the west-central part of the Florida Peninsula. Tampa has received only 2.35 inches of rain since Feb. 1, compared to a historical average of 9 inches. Less than 2 inches of rain has fallen there since March 1.
The northern, stronger branch of the jet stream has been carrying smoke from numerous wildfires in western Canada across the northern Plains and into portions of the Midwest and Northeast. In the northern Plains, the smoke has made its way down to ground level and has been reducing visibility. In the Northeast, the smoke is high in the atmosphere and causing what would normally be a deep blue sky to appear hazy, like a typical day in July or August.
Meanwhile, in the nearby Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, AccuWeather meteorologists will be monitoring conditions for potential tropical development for the latter part of May and early June.
Regardless of tropical development or not, an extended period of stormy conditions are in store for the Southeast states and that could expand northward to include the mid-Atlantic region by the Memorial Day weekend. This could reduce the threat of drought in the Southeast, even as areas farther north continue to be dry.
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