Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane potential, US risk to increase around mid-August
AccuWeather hurricane experts are predicting three to five named storms will form across the Atlantic basin throughout August as conditions become prime for tropical development.
There are multiple systems in the Atlantic right now that could turn into tropical storms, but what effect will they have on the U.S.? AccuWeather’s Geoff Cornish breaks it down.
AccuWeather hurricane experts are predicting three to five named storms will form across the Atlantic basin during August.
Development potential for long-track tropical storms and hurricanes is expected to increase near the middle of the month. At least one of the areas of interest could track through the Caribbean and may become a concern for the United States.
A zone of thunderstorms just off the Carolina coast has some time to organize into a tropical depression or storm over the next few days. A steering breeze will guide the storm away from the U.S., but it will still generate rough surf and rip currents—even if it fails to strengthen into a tropical storm.
Across the northern Gulf, a cluster of downpours and gusty thunderstorms may bring incidents of urban flooding and flash flooding in low-lying areas. The locally heavy rain will spread from Florida to Louisiana and may even reach part of the Texas coast. This area has a very low risk of becoming a tropical depression or storm.
At least two more areas of interest have a greater chance of tropical development in the coming days. While these systems are currently thousands of miles from the U.S., at least one appears to be caught in steering breezes that could bring it closer and make it a potential concern.
The first is over the open Atlantic, where the next named storm could take shape.
"The timeline for high-risk development zone is this weekend into early next week," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex Merrill said. "However, there appears to be no threat to the U.S. from this low-pressure area as it will get caught up in the main steering flow of the jet stream and curve northward somewhere near or east of Bermuda some days later."
On this image, captured on Friday afternoon, Aug. 8, 2025, bumps and enhancements to thunderstorm activity from Africa (lower right) to northern South America (lower left) are indicative of tropical waves of low pressure. A swirl has developed with one of the tropical waves (near center). Clouds, showers and thunderstorms continue to gather near the southeastern United States coast (middle left). Tropical Rainstorm Dexter is still visible (upper center). (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
A large plume of Saharan dust is moving off the African coast late this week.
"That dust plume will traverse the main subtropical development area of the Atlantic through the middle of next week," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chad Merrill said. "Beyond the middle of next week, though, the dust train drops off significantly."
That drop-off is expected to coincide with a cluster of thunderstorms moving off the coast of Africa, associated with a low-pressure area or tropical wave. Steering breezes suggest this wave will have opportunities to organize and strengthen as it tracks west-northwest toward and through the Caribbean, provided it avoids interaction with the region’s larger, mountainous islands.
"The timeline for any impact of this area of interest for the Caribbean or the U.S. is Aug. 15 to 22 or perhaps a bit longer, depending on its exact track," Merrill said.
Coastal and travel interests in the Caribbean, as well as the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts, are advised to monitor the situation closely, as it may pose the first significant tropical threat of the season.
So far this month, Tropical Storm Dexter has been the only named storm in the Atlantic. While the month is far from over, an average of five named storms typically form during August.
With Dexter already named and a significant chance for two additional storms to develop around midmonth, at least three named storms appear likely. Beyond that, there's the potential for more tropical activity heading into the Labor Day weekend. Of the systems on the radar for the third week of August, one or both could strengthen into hurricanes.
The next names on the list for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season are Erin, Fernand and Gabrielle.
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