Tropical West Pacific to turn active

The West Pacific has been void of tropical development since Malakas dissipated back on April 15, so a little over two months of inactivity.

Typhoon Malakas Courtesy https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/

A weak rainstorm has formed just off the east coast of Luzon and should remain weak as it tracks west-northwest the next few days. We are also watching an area of disturbed weather near Palau in the southern Philippine Sea.

The weak rainstorm is unlikely to strengthen significantly into Wednesday, but conditions can become more conducive for strengthening once over the South China Sea starting late Wednesday, local time. Regardless, this rainstorm will bring heavy rainfall and the risk of flooding and mudslides to Luzon into Friday, local time. Widespread rainfall of 150-300 mm (6-12 inches) is expected through Friday with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 600 mm (24 inches).

Warm water and easing wind shear can allow the rainstorm to reach tropical storm intensity over the South China Sea late this week or weekend. As a result, we are staying with a medium chance for development. The exact track of this feature is uncertain but can go on to impact southeast China or Taiwan around Sunday or Monday, local time.

The area of disturbed weather near Palau can gradually become organized as it tracks northward over the next few days. Conditions can become more conducive for development into a tropical depression or tropical storm once near the Ryukyu Islands late this week or weekend. Regardless of intensity, this system can bring heavy rain to the Ryukyu Islands Friday into Sunday, local time, and may eventually impact South Korea and parts of Japan early next week.