Another tropical threat for Madagascar

Emnati has strengthened to an intense tropical storm north of Reunion Island and is now the equivalent of a strong Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is expected as it tracks southwestward over the next couple of days and can reach the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on Monday, local time.

The outer bands will continue to batter Mauritius and Reunion Island with rain, some heavy, and strong wind gusts into Monday, local time. As Emnati approaches eastern Madagascar, conditions will start to deteriorate over east-central and southeast Madagascar late Monday, with landfall expected between Mananjary and Vatomandry on Tuesday. This would be the third named tropical system to hit the nation in February, the fourth tropical system to impact Madagascar since Jan. 22, and the second named tropical system to make landfall in a week.

There is a good chance that Emnati will impact the same areas that were struck by Intense Tropical Cyclone Batsirai about a month ago. Wave heights to 43 feet (13 meters) can batter the coast in the vicinity of landfall late Monday night into Tuesday, which should result in coastal flooding. As Emanti crosses southern Madagascar, it will produce a swath of flooding rain from late Monday into Wednesday, with rainfall of 4-8 inches (100-200 mm) likely along its track with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ to 14 inches (350 mm).

Wind gusts to 155 mph (250 km/h) are possible near landfall with widespread wind gusts of 60-80 mph (95-129 km/h) expected elsewhere across central and southern Madagascar. Additional structural damage and flooding from Emnati will hinder clean-up efforts following Dumako, Batsirai and Ana. Interaction with the rugged terrain will cause Emnati to rapidly lose wind intensity after landfall and should emerge over the southern Mozambique Channel as a tropical rainstorm later Wednesday.