Is climate change having any impact on El Nino and La Nina?
By
Brett Anderson, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Updated Sep 28, 2021 1:17 PM EDT
El Nino and La Nina can have play significant roles in the overall weather patterns across portions of the globe. A key question was asked by the some of the experts at NOAA on whether or not climate change is having any influence on ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) and what the future may hold.
According to NOAA, the strength and frequency of high amplitude ENSO events have increased since 1950 compared to the 1850-1950 period.
SST anomalies in the key Nino 3.4 region going back to the mid-19th century. El Nino events are generally shown by the red peaks, while La Nina events are shown by the blue, negative peaks.
Temperature changes during El Nino have been stronger in the central equatorial Pacific compared to the eastern equatorial Pacific over the past 20-30 years. So, is climate change playing a role?
Long-term evidence going back as far as 11,700 years indicates that ENSO has gone through many different patterns and amplitudes, thus it is hard to say that the changes that we have seen since 1950 have been all that unusual.
Climate models also show that these recent changes with El Nino events are well within the range of natural variability.
Looking into the future, the researchers from NOAA found that there was no climate model consensus in regards to changes in ENSO-related sea-surface temperatures along the equatorial Pacific through the end of the century.
However, the climate models were fairly consistent in showing a significant increase in rainfall variability over the east-central Pacific through 2100. What does this mean? It indicates that El Nino will probably trend wetter, while La Nina will likely turn drier.
Report a Typo
Weather Blogs / Global climate change
Is climate change having any impact on El Nino and La Nina?
By Brett Anderson, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Updated Sep 28, 2021 1:17 PM EDT
El Nino and La Nina can have play significant roles in the overall weather patterns across portions of the globe. A key question was asked by the some of the experts at NOAA on whether or not climate change is having any influence on ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) and what the future may hold.
According to NOAA, the strength and frequency of high amplitude ENSO events have increased since 1950 compared to the 1850-1950 period.
SST anomalies in the key Nino 3.4 region going back to the mid-19th century. El Nino events are generally shown by the red peaks, while La Nina events are shown by the blue, negative peaks.
Temperature changes during El Nino have been stronger in the central equatorial Pacific compared to the eastern equatorial Pacific over the past 20-30 years. So, is climate change playing a role?
Long-term evidence going back as far as 11,700 years indicates that ENSO has gone through many different patterns and amplitudes, thus it is hard to say that the changes that we have seen since 1950 have been all that unusual.
Climate models also show that these recent changes with El Nino events are well within the range of natural variability.
Looking into the future, the researchers from NOAA found that there was no climate model consensus in regards to changes in ENSO-related sea-surface temperatures along the equatorial Pacific through the end of the century.
However, the climate models were fairly consistent in showing a significant increase in rainfall variability over the east-central Pacific through 2100. What does this mean? It indicates that El Nino will probably trend wetter, while La Nina will likely turn drier.
Report a Typo