Severe storms, flooding to target huge swath of Central US
By
Jake Sojda, AccuWeather meteorologist
Updated Apr 26, 2021 2:01 AM EST
Meteorologist Reed Timmer was chasing a tornado in Lockett and Crowell, Texas on April 23 as “golf ball-” and “baseball-” sized hail pelted his car, cracking his windshield.
After one wave of severe thunderstorms and flooding rain pummeled parts of the Southeast into the first half of the weekend, AccuWeather meteorologists are already looking ahead to the next threat for severe weather that will materialize this week.
Residents of the central and southern Plains, and perhaps some areas farther east, will have to be on guard for all modes of severe weather including giant hail, tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and flash flooding.
All of this will also come as parts of the region remember the the 10-year anniversary of the Super Tornado Outbreak in 2011, an infamous event that spawned hundreds of tornadoes and claimed hundreds of lives across the South.
Forecasters say it will all get underway Tuesday afternoon. "A potent storm in the Southwestern U.S. early in the week will slowly spin eastward toward the southern Plains toward the middle of this week," explained AccuWeather Storm Warning Meteorologist Mike Youman.
"As it continues its trek east, rain and thunderstorms will break out in the nation's midsection Tuesday and Wednesday, with at least some of the thunderstorms likely to become severe."
Youman also noted that the threat could eye portions of the East later in the week, but exactly where the greatest threat lies depends on how the storm evolves Tuesday and Wednesday in the Central U.S.
"Confidence is growing that thunderstorms will initially fire up later Tuesday afternoon from western Texas into western Kansas along a boundary called a 'dry line,'" Youman said.
A dry line is a sharp boundary between warm and moist air streaming northward from the Gulf of Mexico, and hot, dry air trying to advance eastward out of the high, desert plateaus of the southern Rockies.
The dry line acts similarly to a cold front in the way it spawns thunderstorms, but instead of temperature differences on each side of the boundary, there are drastic moisture differences. "Dry lines are a very common feature in the warm months in this part of the country, and often spark very powerful thunderstorms whenever some energy is provided from a storm, such as the one expected to swing through the Southwest this week," explained AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller.
These thunderstorms can be capable of giant hail, up to baseball or even softball-sized at times, as well as tornadoes, powerful winds and locally torrential downpours which can flood drainage ditches and roadways quickly.
"All forms of severe weather including several tornadoes, very large hail, torrential rainfall, damaging wind gusts and frequent lightning strikes appear to be likely for Tuesday," AccuWeather Senior Storm Warning Meteorologist Eddie Walker said.
Once thunderstorms get under way Tuesday, they will shift eastward Tuesday night into Wednesday, which is when the most widespread coverage of rain and thunderstorms is expected to unfold.
Residents in parts of central and eastern Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, as well as into western Missouri may not see any rain or thunderstorms until the overnight hours Tuesday night, including places like Kansas City, Oklahoma City and Dallas.
However, forecasters say confidence in what the greatest severe threat will be remains lower.
"While there's likely to remain at least some threat for damaging wind gusts and maybe some hail and isolated tornadoes right through Wednesday night, the overall set up may turn into more of a heavy rain and flooding threat for the majority of the region," Youman said.
"It will all depend on exactly how a number of different factors all come together at that time."
However forecasters warn residents not to let their guard down, and to still be prepared for anything. "Even though this set up may not end up being conducive for a large outbreak, that doesn't mean you should let your guard down, as there will be many places on Tuesday and Wednesday that see severe weather across central parts of the country," Youman clarified.
Another aspect of this event will be its slow-moving nature. Whether it's severe thunderstorms, heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms, or some combination of both, many parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri and Arkansas could see multiple rounds from Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Even parts of the lower Ohio Valley in southern Illinois and Indiana into northern Kentucky could get involved in the rain and storms Wednesday and Wednesday night.
"Several inches of rainfall are possible in these areas through Wednesday night, which will certainly bring a heightened threat for flooding before the storm finally moves east," Miller said.
In some areas the heavy rain can lead to flooded fields, damaging crops that have already been planted, or delay planting in areas where farmers are still prepping fields. However, in parts of southern Oklahoma into Texas, where patches of moderate to extreme drought exists, some heavy rainfall may be welcome.
The threat for severe thunderstorms may not end Wednesday, instead continuing into the eastern U.S. Thursday and Friday. However, exactly what regions may see the greatest threat will be highly dependent on a number of factors, including what happens in the Central U.S. Tuesday and Wednesday as well as the timing of a push of cooler air again across the northern U.S. at the same time.
AccuWeather Meteorologists say to keep checking back for updates as confidence grows on how the pattern will set up for the latter portions of this week.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
The severe weather anticipated early this week will coincide with the 10th anniversary of the Super Outbreak of 2011. Hundreds of severe thunderstorms were spawned during the event which spanned four days from April 25 to 28. The storms killed 321 people and injured nearly 3,000.
The 2011 Super Outbreak was centered significantly farther to the east when compared to the setup for Tuesday and Wednesday, April 27 and 28, 2021. During the Super Outbreak of 2011, severe storms occurred from Texas to New York state and Pennsylvania.
Outbreaks of cold air have been suppressing severe weather activity during much of April 2021 thus far. Portions of Texas were hit with record-late frosts and freezes this week. The pattern of cold waves may soon change.
AccuWeather's long-range team of expert meteorologists led by Senior Meteorologist Paul Pastelok, expect a significant upturn in the amount of severe weather and tornadoes as warmth becomes more pronounced across the Central states during May.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo
News / Severe Weather
Severe storms, flooding to target huge swath of Central US
By Jake Sojda, AccuWeather meteorologist
Updated Apr 26, 2021 2:01 AM EST
Meteorologist Reed Timmer was chasing a tornado in Lockett and Crowell, Texas on April 23 as “golf ball-” and “baseball-” sized hail pelted his car, cracking his windshield.
After one wave of severe thunderstorms and flooding rain pummeled parts of the Southeast into the first half of the weekend, AccuWeather meteorologists are already looking ahead to the next threat for severe weather that will materialize this week.
Residents of the central and southern Plains, and perhaps some areas farther east, will have to be on guard for all modes of severe weather including giant hail, tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and flash flooding.
All of this will also come as parts of the region remember the the 10-year anniversary of the Super Tornado Outbreak in 2011, an infamous event that spawned hundreds of tornadoes and claimed hundreds of lives across the South.
Forecasters say it will all get underway Tuesday afternoon. "A potent storm in the Southwestern U.S. early in the week will slowly spin eastward toward the southern Plains toward the middle of this week," explained AccuWeather Storm Warning Meteorologist Mike Youman.
"As it continues its trek east, rain and thunderstorms will break out in the nation's midsection Tuesday and Wednesday, with at least some of the thunderstorms likely to become severe."
Youman also noted that the threat could eye portions of the East later in the week, but exactly where the greatest threat lies depends on how the storm evolves Tuesday and Wednesday in the Central U.S.
"Confidence is growing that thunderstorms will initially fire up later Tuesday afternoon from western Texas into western Kansas along a boundary called a 'dry line,'" Youman said.
A dry line is a sharp boundary between warm and moist air streaming northward from the Gulf of Mexico, and hot, dry air trying to advance eastward out of the high, desert plateaus of the southern Rockies.
The dry line acts similarly to a cold front in the way it spawns thunderstorms, but instead of temperature differences on each side of the boundary, there are drastic moisture differences. "Dry lines are a very common feature in the warm months in this part of the country, and often spark very powerful thunderstorms whenever some energy is provided from a storm, such as the one expected to swing through the Southwest this week," explained AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller.
These thunderstorms can be capable of giant hail, up to baseball or even softball-sized at times, as well as tornadoes, powerful winds and locally torrential downpours which can flood drainage ditches and roadways quickly.
"All forms of severe weather including several tornadoes, very large hail, torrential rainfall, damaging wind gusts and frequent lightning strikes appear to be likely for Tuesday," AccuWeather Senior Storm Warning Meteorologist Eddie Walker said.
Once thunderstorms get under way Tuesday, they will shift eastward Tuesday night into Wednesday, which is when the most widespread coverage of rain and thunderstorms is expected to unfold.
Residents in parts of central and eastern Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, as well as into western Missouri may not see any rain or thunderstorms until the overnight hours Tuesday night, including places like Kansas City, Oklahoma City and Dallas.
However, forecasters say confidence in what the greatest severe threat will be remains lower.
"While there's likely to remain at least some threat for damaging wind gusts and maybe some hail and isolated tornadoes right through Wednesday night, the overall set up may turn into more of a heavy rain and flooding threat for the majority of the region," Youman said.
"It will all depend on exactly how a number of different factors all come together at that time."
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However forecasters warn residents not to let their guard down, and to still be prepared for anything. "Even though this set up may not end up being conducive for a large outbreak, that doesn't mean you should let your guard down, as there will be many places on Tuesday and Wednesday that see severe weather across central parts of the country," Youman clarified.
Another aspect of this event will be its slow-moving nature. Whether it's severe thunderstorms, heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms, or some combination of both, many parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri and Arkansas could see multiple rounds from Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Even parts of the lower Ohio Valley in southern Illinois and Indiana into northern Kentucky could get involved in the rain and storms Wednesday and Wednesday night.
"Several inches of rainfall are possible in these areas through Wednesday night, which will certainly bring a heightened threat for flooding before the storm finally moves east," Miller said.
In some areas the heavy rain can lead to flooded fields, damaging crops that have already been planted, or delay planting in areas where farmers are still prepping fields. However, in parts of southern Oklahoma into Texas, where patches of moderate to extreme drought exists, some heavy rainfall may be welcome.
The threat for severe thunderstorms may not end Wednesday, instead continuing into the eastern U.S. Thursday and Friday. However, exactly what regions may see the greatest threat will be highly dependent on a number of factors, including what happens in the Central U.S. Tuesday and Wednesday as well as the timing of a push of cooler air again across the northern U.S. at the same time.
AccuWeather Meteorologists say to keep checking back for updates as confidence grows on how the pattern will set up for the latter portions of this week.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
The severe weather anticipated early this week will coincide with the 10th anniversary of the Super Outbreak of 2011. Hundreds of severe thunderstorms were spawned during the event which spanned four days from April 25 to 28. The storms killed 321 people and injured nearly 3,000.
The 2011 Super Outbreak was centered significantly farther to the east when compared to the setup for Tuesday and Wednesday, April 27 and 28, 2021. During the Super Outbreak of 2011, severe storms occurred from Texas to New York state and Pennsylvania.
Outbreaks of cold air have been suppressing severe weather activity during much of April 2021 thus far. Portions of Texas were hit with record-late frosts and freezes this week. The pattern of cold waves may soon change.
AccuWeather's long-range team of expert meteorologists led by Senior Meteorologist Paul Pastelok, expect a significant upturn in the amount of severe weather and tornadoes as warmth becomes more pronounced across the Central states during May.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo