Ongoing rounds of rain to keep flash flood risk elevated in northeastern US
Some Northeast cities have received several months’ worth of rain over the course of just a couple days so far in July. AccuWeather forecasters say more moisture-packed storms will drench the region this week.
AccuWeather meteorologists say a more significant rain threat will evolve across the Northeast late this week and into this weekend.
As storms packed with moisture progress from the Midwest to the Atlantic coast, AccuWeather meteorologists continue to stress that the risk of life-threatening and damaging flash flooding will continue this week.
During the past weekend, widespread rainfall of 1–4 inches and locally higher amounts between 6 and 8 inches in a matter of hours triggered rapid rises on small streams from Virginia to Maine. In some cases, streams spilled over roads and water rose across low-lying roadways in a matter of minutes.
At least five people lost their lives Saturday evening as rapidly rising water quickly swept vehicles away in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, located in the southeastern part of the state.
In many cases, parts of the mid-Atlantic and New England states have received two to three months' worth of rain for the summer season in the past week. In those areas, much of that rain fell in just one to two days.
During the first 18 days of July, Hartford, Connecticut, has picked up nearly 10 inches of rain. That amount is four times the historical average for the period. Rainfall during June in the city was only about 60% of the historical average, according to AccuWeather forecasters. Much of the Northeast struggled with rainfall during May.
More rain is coming to the Northeast, but there will be more separation between the storms packing heavy rain compared to the past week. That separation may be enough to lower the risk of major river flooding in the region, as it will give the large waterways more time to absorb the rain and carry the surge of water downstream.
However, the risk of flash flooding in urban areas and along small streams will continue since there is still enough water in the atmosphere to lead to the development of torrential downpours.
"Thunderstorms into Wednesday are expected to move faster than the storms from this past weekend and last week which should help to mitigate a widespread flood threat," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said.
"However, because of the saturated state of the ground in many areas due to the recent heavy rain across the region, downpours can still trigger flash flooding more easily than would typically occur," Douty explained.
Another eruption of downpours and thunderstorms is likely to spoil part of Wednesday in the mid-Atlantic zone, especially from New Jersey and Long Island, New York to southeastern Virginia. Where the storms overlap from Tuesday to Wednesday, some locations may pick up 2-4 inches of rain.
Much of the remainder of the Northeast is likely to be dry from Wednesday into Thursday. The mid-Atlantic zone will have to wait until Wednesday evening to begin their brief dry break.
A more significant rain threat will evolve over the Northeast late this week and early this weekend as a large low pressure moves into the region that will produce an area of soaking rain and heavy thunderstorms.
The risk of downpours will increase from the Ohio Valley to the central Appalachians Thursday, including in cities such as Pittsburgh and Charleston, West Virginia. Areas around Lake Erie and Lake Ontario could be impacted as well.
"Thunderstorms and downpours with this system should move along at a fast enough pace from Thursday to Saturday as to limit a widespread flood concern," Douty said. "Travelers and residents should still monitor the situation, as localized flash flooding seems likely."
The wettest conditions will be from the daytime hours Friday into Friday evening in the mid-Atlantic. In New England, the heaviest rain will fall mainly from late Friday to Saturday. The timing of the downpours and thunderstorms could hit motorists and air travelers hard from Washington, D.C., to Philadelphia, New York City and Boston.
Forecasters say motorists should be vigilant when traveling along secondary roads near small streams. Even seemingly shallow water may rise quickly or could wash out the road. Similarly, low-lying roads in urban areas, such as beneath underpasses, may rapidly fill with water as storm drains are overwhelmed.
The heaviest rain from Tuesday to Saturday this week will tend to fall from parts of the Ohio Valley to the western slopes of the southern Appalachians. Several inches of rain will pour down and lead to flash flooding.
Elsewhere, rainfall could total 1–2 inches, with locally higher amounts, in northeastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York state and central and northern New England.
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