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Northern Europe facing risk of 2 windstorms this week

By Mary Gilbert, AccuWeather meteorologist

Published Sep 22, 2020 5:17 PM EDT

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Motorists navigate their way through deep floodwaters in Houston, Texas, on Sept. 22. Some of the vehicles did not make it through the flooding.

A pattern change will set a series of weather woes into motion for much of Europe this week, including two potential windstorms in the north and severe weather in the southern portion of the continent.

"A deep trough will dive into central Europe by late week and several storm systems can develop as a result," AccuWeather Meteorologist Tyler Roys said.

Two of these storm systems are set to impact portions of Europe almost simultaneously.

"A storm system will develop rapidly in the North Sea and track into northeast Europe on Wednesday, mainly impacting Norway and northwestern Denmark," Roys said. Roys noted that this storm will be a quick-hitter, with impacts only expected to continue through Thursday morning.

Wind gusts of 64-80 km/h (40-50 mph) will be common from the southern third of Norway to northwestern Denmark. Across the southern coast of Norway, 80-96 km/h (50-60 mph) gusts will be more common with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 120 km/h (75 mph).

Although this system will be fast-moving, it is still forecast to bring locally heavy rain to portions of the area. A general 25-50 mm (1-2 inches) of rainfall is expected across the southern third of Norway with widespread 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) likely along the coast. An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 150 mm (6 inches) can occur at the Norwegian coast.

While this system unleashes rain and wind on portions of Norway and Denmark, another storm will begin to strengthen farther west, over the southwestern British Isles.

"This system will spin out of control across the southwestern British Isles as it heads towards northern France Wednesday into Friday," Roys said.

Wind gusts on the level of 64-80 km/h (40-50 mph) will be common across southern Ireland, Wales, southwestern England and northern France. Across the western half of the northern coast of France, 80-96 km/h (50-60 mph) wind gusts will be more common with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 120 km/h (75 mph).

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Although this system will certainly pack a punch in terms of gusty winds, it is not likely to produce widespread, heavy rain. Rather, many of the areas impacted by this system can expect a few blustery showers instead of gushing, inundating rainfall.

The potential for two windstorms to impact similar areas of the European continent at almost the same time is rather unusual. However, stranger things have happened thus far in 2020. Back in August, Storm Ellen and Storm Francis brought damaging winds to portions of the United Kingdom. This was the first time in 30 years that two windstorms had impacted the U.K. during the month of August.

While these two potential windstorms simultaneously impact portions of northern Europe, areas farther south will not leave this week unscathed.

A cold front associated with the storm that will impact Norway will extend south into the Alps on Thursday.

"This cold front will be able to tap into abundant moisture from the Mediterranean and fuel rounds of heavy rain across the Alps through at least Saturday," Roys said.

Roys noted that additional storm systems will develop as a result of this front. The first of these systems will develop over northern Italy and move into Poland on Friday. This system will act to kick off a threat for severe weather across portions of the continent.

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"Severe storms will ignite from portions of northern and central France into the Dinaric Alps and even over the northern half of the Balkans," Roys said.

Flooding rainfall, damaging wind gusts and hail will all be possible within these severe storms.

A second system will develop on Saturday and take a very similar path to the first. This system will unleash additional rounds of rain, and it may even bring the threat of a few snowflakes to portions of the Alps late Friday into Saturday.

As a result of these two additional systems, a general 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) of rain is expected to drench the interior Alps with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 150 mm (6 inches). A general 25-50 mm (1-2 inches) of rain will fall across the the rest of the Alps as well as from Hungary to Poland.

As the cold front that helped to spawn these additional systems treks farther east, colder air will be able to sweep over portions of Europe.

"This will lead to some chilly conditions late week for Germany, Czechia and the Low Countries," Roys said.

With what is shaping up to be a very unsettled week across much of Europe, many may wonder whether Paulette, which regenerated on Tuesday, will throw its hat into the ring.

While Paulette regenerated in the eastern Atlantic early Tuesday morning, local time, the storm is not on a course to join the fray of systems set to impact Europe. The two potential windstorms that blow through portions of Europe this week will be strong enough to essentially rob Paulette of all its energy. Paulette is forecast to meander over the open waters of the eastern Atlantic for several days and ultimately fizzle out north of the Azores late Friday night.

Looking ahead to next week, a less chaotic weather pattern will gradually ease back into the region. Many areas will encounter drier weather, weaker winds and little threat for widespread severe weather.

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

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