Tropical development lurking in the Gulf for late July
While the Caribbean remains quiet, an area close to the United States bears watching in the coming days for tropical activity.
Before July comes to an end, there’s still a chance for a tropical system affecting the Southeast or the Gulf Coast. AccuWeather’s Damien Lodes has the details.
AccuWeather meteorologists are keeping a close eye across the northern Gulf for tropical development through the end of this week.
While the area is not deemed a high risk, the zone that will be represented by a cluster of showers and thunderstorms that tracks westward along the northern Gulf coast is likely to have some significant impacts, regardless of tropical development.
The area of interest is associated with a batch of drenching showers and thunderstorms that are forecast impact the Carolinas, Georgia and off the southern Atlantic coast on Tuesday.
From there, steering breezes will direct this budding low pressure area toward the west across northern Florida and the northeastern Gulf coast from Tuesday to Wednesday, Louisiana and offshore waters from Wednesday to Thursday, and then along the Texas coast from Thursday to Friday.
How far off the coast the center of the storm forms and tracks may affect its ability to fully develop and strengthen, AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "If the center is able to stay offshore long enough, it will increase its chances for tropical development. However, if the center hugs the coast, it will struggle to strengthen."
"Another factor will be stiff, disruptive breezes (wind shear), which will also tend to push the storm steadily and swiftly to the west," DaSilva explained.
This wind shear will be created by a building area of high pressure, or heat dome, to the north over the middle of the U.S. this week. Tropical storms have an easier time trying to form and strengthen when wind shear is low (disruptive breezes are light).
Regardless of tropical development or not, the northern Gulf and adjacent coastal areas along the Interstate 10 corridor will experience a period of stormy conditions from east to west this week with one or more rounds of drenching downpours and gusty thunderstorms.
Another stormy day in the Southeast on July 21 led to isolated flooding from Kentucky into the Carolinas and beyond.
Several inches of rain are likely to fall along portions of the I-10 corridor this week. Some locations may receive upwards of 6 inches of rain, and a significant part of that may fall in a few hours, raising the risk of flash flooding in urban and low-lying areas. Travel disruptions and dangerous conditions may develop in some communities.
Another factor will be the likelihood of thunderstorm squalls moving from west to east across the northern Gulf. These will pose dangers to boaters and coastal interests. Seas can rapidly turn rough, with the potential for waterspouts and tornadoes in coastal areas.
The final destination for the cluster of downpours or perhaps a tropical rainstorm will be Texas late this week. Much of the state will be sweltering in the hottest weather pattern of the summer this week.
Storms that move in from the east may offer some relief from the heat. However, the heat could increase the intensity of the thunderstorms and the tropical area of interest itself will have the entire week to develop while moving westward over the northern Gulf. For this reason, coastal areas and even parts of central Texas should monitor the progress of this area of tropical interest in terms of the potential gusty coastal winds and flooding downpours.
Tracking a robust tropical wave
Thousands of miles to the southeast, in waters north of South America, a tropical wave of low pressure is one of the more robust that have moved off the coast of Africa so far this summer. Development is no longer expected to occur, as steering breezes have pushed this tropical wave into a zone of greater wind shear and dry air. Though, the tropical wave can still bring impacts to the Caribbean.
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"As this tropical wave, with its pulse of showers and thunderstorms, drifts westward, it will bring an uptick in drenching downpours and gusty squalls through portions of the Leeward and Windward islands at midweek," DaSilva said. Enough rain may fall to lead to flash flooding and mudslides, and the squalls may pose dangers to small craft.
The prime development season of the Atlantic, or Cabo Verde season, where tropical waves moving westward off the coast of Africa strengthen into tropical storms and hurricanes, typically does not ramp up until the middle to latter part of August.
This is usually due to what is present now--vast areas of dry air, dust and wind shear in the prime development zone during the middle of the summer.
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