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News / Severe Weather

Monsoon flooding turns deadly in Southwest ... and more is on the way

By Courtney Travis, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Updated Jul 25, 2021 6:30 AM EDT

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Intense thunderstorms brought downpours across the southwestern U.S. from Thursday into Friday, leading to dangerous flash flooding.

The North American Monsoon, an annual phenomenon in the southwestern United States, began to unleash rounds of showers and thunderstorms across interior parts of the region in mid-June. This month, the heavy rainfall has turned deadly, with some locations being flooded multiple times. And, to make matters worse, AccuWeather forecasters say more rain is on the way.

On Tuesday, drenching rainfall centered on Albuquerque, New Mexico, where 1 inch of rain poured down in just 15 minutes near Indian School and Tramway, according to the Albuquerque Journal. The rising waters of the Embudo Arroyo caused three people to be swept away in the flooding. As search and rescue efforts continued on Wednesday, two bodies were recovered; one person was still missing as of Thursday morning.

Nolan Bennett, a field engineer for Albuquerque Metropolitan Arroyo Flood Control, told local station KOB, there was about 10 to 12 feet of water rushing down the arroyo.

On Saturday, intense rainfall hit parts of Tucson and Flagstaff, Arizona, where the cities observed 2.27 and 1.80 inches of rain, respectively.

One area hit particularly hard this past week was around burn scars of the Museum Fire in the Dry Lake Hills area north of Flagstaff, which sparked in mid-July of 2019. As the heavy rain overwhelmed the region, the Coconino County Emergency Management office issued a shelter-in-place order.

The National Weather Service (NWS) office in Flagstaff told the Associated Press that more rain fell in some places in northern Arizona than in the whole monsoon season last year. The floodwaters caused not only major road closures, like State Highway 87, but also property damage.

At least one death was attributed to the heavy rain in the area after a woman was swept away in floodwaters.

The above image shows flash flooding and debris flowing in the Flagstaff, Arizona, area on July 13, 2021. (City of Flagstaff)

Following the flooding across northern parts of the state, the governor of Arizona issued an emergency declaration.

“Severe post-wildfire flooding is creating dangerous challenges for communities in northern Arizona,” Governor Doug Ducey said Friday.

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The threat for more flooding will persist across Arizona and New Mexico, and it may expand into other parts of the southwestern U.S. in the coming days.

"The active monsoon pattern across the Southwest is forecast to continue through the upcoming week, especially across Arizona and New Mexico," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said.

Pydynowski also added that thunderstorm activity will be most active across the region during the afternoon and evening hours, and storms will be capable of bringing heavy downpours that could trigger additional flash flooding.

Through early week, the coverage area of showers and thunderstorms is expected to focus across parts of Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Utah, Nevada and Southern California.

Even the smallest of downpours could quickly strengthen and produce a burst of rainfall that could total as much as 1 to 2 inches. An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 10 inches is foreseen where downpours persist through Monday.

"As the downpours fall on the hard, sun-baked ground, water run-off is likely to create areas of flash flooding and mudflows," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Paul Walker said.

Even rainfall that doesn't produce flooding will be capable of bringing reduced visibility for motorists and subsequent travel delays.

Walker also warned that those with outdoor plans should keep the weather in mind when venturing out.

"Hikers and travelers through the area should be careful to avoid canyons and gullies, as these are exceptionally vulnerable to potentially dangerous flash flooding," explained Walker. Adventurers can download the free AccuWeather app in order to receive the latest weather-related warnings.

Areas farther to the north and west, which have not had much rainfall yet this monsoon season, may also be in danger of a different threat altogether: lightning.

This phenomenon, which occurs when a thunderstorm produces little to no rainfall, due to how dry the air at the ground is, but the lightning still occurs, brings the chance that it could spark a new fire amid the dry brush.

AccuWeather meteorologists expect storms to expand westward on Sunday and then northward through early week. This means that there is the potential for thunderstorms to reach the coast in Southern California and then areas in Northern California later on Sunday, as well as locations in northern Nevada and interior Oregon on Monday and Tuesday.

See also:

Chinese city inundated with a year's worth of rain in just 4 days
How the Bootleg Fire is generating its own weather
Northwest heat wave scorched Christmas trees, too

These thunderstorms will certainly bring dangerous threats, such as flooding and lightning that can spark new wildfires; however, the expansion of the monsoonal rain may prove beneficial in one aspect, in regards to the severe drought gripping the West.

Despite the recent deluge of rain across parts of the region, more than 93 percent of the West is still facing extreme or exceptional drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Those are the two highest categories for drought issued by the drought monitor, a joint effort of different agencies, including the National Drought Mitigation Center and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Any rain that can be absorbed by the very dry ground over the coming week should help to make a small dent in the drought conditions.

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.

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