If you thought the United States was the tornado capital of the world, you'd be wrong, at least by one measure. Although the U.S. gets a lot of tornadoes, more than 1,000 per year on average, the tornado density in the United Kingdom is nearly twice that of the U.S., according to recent research.

The U.K. even has its own Tornado Alley, with the highest likelihood of seeing a tornado east of Reading and west of London.

A research study in 2023 concluded that the density of tornadoes was 2.3 tornadoes per year per 10,000 square kilometers in the U.K., whereas the U.S. has a density of 1.3 twisters.

While that seems hard to believe, the U.K. is a small country and there are wide swaths of the U.S. where tornadoes are rare (most of the West Coast and Rocky Mountains, for example). If you compare the U.K. density to a state in Tornado Alley closer to the size of the U.K., like Oklahoma (density 3.6) or Kansas (density 11.2), the U.S. state wins.

The European Severe Weather Database has documented just short of 800 tornadoes in the U.K. since 1950. The strongest tornado since 1950 hit London on Dec. 8, 1954, with winds between 187 and 212 mph on the TORRO rating scale, which would correspond to an EF3 or EF4 tornado on the Enhanced Fujita Scale. The most expensive twister in the U.K. was the Birmingham tornado in 2005, which caused $54 million in damage.

Also important to note: The U.K. twisters are not nearly as strong as those in the U.S., because most of them are not formed from supercell thunderstorms, but rather smaller tornadoes spawned by cold fronts.

Research is lacking on tornadoes in the United Kingdom, but scientists believe they may have found a reason why there are so many. It's called "horizontal shearing instability" and is the focus of future research.

Bottom line: When compared to the U.S., a much larger country, the U.K. has a higher tornado density, but comparing a similar-sized state in Tornado Alley, the U.S. wins.

You may have seen this image, or one like it, making the rounds on social media recently. A weather map showed a major hurricane positioned just off Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, while another swirled near Bermuda.

Could this happen? Probably not. While this is the European computer forecast model, demonstrably more accurate than any other, this particular map shows only one forecast from hundreds of different weather models. Even within the European model, this is only one of 50 different predictions from ensemble members (forecasts generated with slightly different initial conditions to explore a broader range of possibilities).

During the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, the European model predicted 129 tropical storms, but only 18 storms actually developed. That's not a great accuracy rate. And that only counts predictions up to seven days in the future; the model map shown above is from 15 days out, a notoriously inaccurate range for hurricanes shown on a computer model.

The only useful thing you can do from a model prediction that far out is to look at all the predictions, not just one. Rather than looking at that viral image, which is just one solution, here's what all 50 of the European ensembles are predicting for that time and date in the Southeast:

Each of the ensembles has the low pressure in a different place. It's a lot harder to hype a specific landfall location now, right?

To be more specific about time, place, and strength (remember, a hurricane is a tropical storm of a certain strength) you'd have to look at the other hundreds of models, and how they agree and trend over time. Then, you'd have to look at the overall weather pattern, what it will mean and has meant in the past in similar situations, and how that might affect each model prediction. That's what meteorologists do.

But could it happen theoretically? Ignoring the weather models crying wolf, yes, there have been several Atlantic hurricane seasons where two or more hurricanes have existed in the Atlantic basin at the same time. In fact, there have been three. Statistically, it is more likely to happen in late August into September, which is the peak of hurricane season.

Bottom line: Yes, two hurricanes could be in the Atlantic basin two weeks from now, but looking at one model prediction amongst hundreds is highly unlikely to be correct.

The water's hot in Florida, but is it unusual?

A viral social media post on X talked about a 97-degree water temperature reading at the Everglades National Park in southwest Florida yesterday, and 95 degrees at Tampa. While that sounds hot, it's the peak of summer, so it makes sense that the hottest annual water temperatures would be this time of year. Here's a map of the water temperatures at noon on Wednesday:

According to NOAA, the East Bay weather station in Tampa did, in fact, spike to a water temperature of 95 degrees Tuesday evening.

Is 95 degrees the hottest water temperature ever in Tampa? The East Bay station reached a water temperature peak of 93 degrees last year, on July 20, 94 degrees the year before, on July 15, 2023, and 95 degrees on August 1, 2022. So, this is not a new record.

A station at Port Manatee in Tampa Bay, more than 20 miles south of Tampa, also reached 95 degrees. Other sensors in the area stayed below 95.

Moving to the Everglades, the water at the Bob Allen station in Everglades National Park hit 97 on Wednesday, but was even higher earlier in the week. According to the NOAA graph, it spiked to around 99 degrees on Monday afternoon. However, all readings over 97 degrees are listed as "missing" in the data in the official record, likely because it was flagged by quality control, so it's not an official reading.

Are any of these record-breaking Florida water temperatures? Probably not. The station at Manatee Bay has stayed below 95 this week, and it reported 101 degrees in 2023.

Sidenote: An official station at South Port Everglades, Florida has also been reporting water temperatures as high as 104 degrees this week, but many observations are missing and this is likely bad data.

Caution must be used with water temperature readings for two reasons. First, not all stations on the NDBC website are official. Although they show nearly 30 stations in Southwest Florida, there are no official NOAA stations in that part of the state, and only two in the Florida Keys.

Secondly, there are few records for water temperature extremes, so it's hard to put high temperatures in context with what is normally measured at the station. Each station is at a different depth underwater, and temperatures vary greatly over a few feet. Stations with a sensor closer to the surface will read warmer, for example the Bob Allen station's sensor is at 5 feet below sea level, while the Tampa station is 7.9 feet down.

Bottom line: It's like bathwater in Florida this week, but they've seen hotter.

Social media was abuzz yesterday with announcements that the world heat index record had been broken in Iran, but it looks like that was likely an instrument error.

The measurement in question came from Dayrestan, Iran, which had a dew point of 97 degrees Fahrenheit with a temperature of 104, calculating a heat index of 182. You can see the observations online.

Here's a look at the highest heat index reported at various stations in the Persian Gulf this month. Notice how the 182 degree reading stands out as quite a bit higher than surrounding stations, with the next highest reading being 145 F at Lavan Island, Iran, and other stations reporting a heat index in the 130s and 140s.

This is one way to quickly check whether a weather observation is legit. You can never rule it out due to extreme localized weather conditions, but there are enough weather stations these days that more than one of them would have caught a heat index that high if it were real.

Airport weather stations are mostly automated, and operators generally don't question them unless there's a big reason to. Other nations may not have the same strict quality control rules that we do in the United States. Places that collect extreme weather data, like NOAA's NCEI or the WMO, might not look at the data for weeks, months or years to disqualify it.

Something I've learned working consumer and low-end professional weather stations, is that dew point sensors are the most likely to malfunction or read incorrectly. I assume that's no different for more expensive stations.

This station has a history of extremely high and unlikely readings; a heat index of 180 was recorded on Aug. 30, 2024. During the observation this week, the dew point was 97 degrees, 2 degrees above the world record, another reason that this observation was likely incorrect.

Bottom line: It's plenty hot in the Persian Gulf, but not 182 degrees. I wrote a whole article on extreme heat there last year, when the Persian Gulf International Airport in Asaluyeh, Iran, spiked to an AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperature of 149 degrees, even though RealFeel takes wind speed and other factors into account. The 140s shown on the map above are probably real. Just not the 182 degrees.

The second and final total lunar eclipse of the year will turn the moon a deep red on Sept. 7, and it’s already generating buzz online. Some are calling it one of the most widely visible eclipses in recent history, with the potential to be seen by up to 7 billion people — about 85% of Earth’s population, weather permitting.

The catch? It won't be visible from North America or South America.

Unlike total solar eclipses, which are only visible along a narrow path, total lunar eclipses can be seen from entire continents at once. This one will unfold over the most densely populated parts of the planet, including Asia, Europe, Africa and Australia.

Skywatchers in North America will have to wait until March 2–3, 2026, for their next glimpse of a blood moon.

Bottom line: Yes, 7 billion people live in areas where the next total lunar eclipse will be visible, but North America is not in the viewing area.

Update August 1, 2025:

The numbers haven't changed much, with the rest of the July data now in. San Francisco is now up to number 18 from the previous rank of 25th coolest summer.

Fremont has risen to number one, but they only have records going back 28 years; Napa fell to the number two coolest summer. Oakland, with records going back 46 years, jumped up one notch to number one.

According to the New York Times, paint staff for the Golden Gate Bridge have had to use heaters on the bridge to bring it up to painting temperature, which is something they haven't done "for a long time." Grapes in the Napa Valley softened and changed color later than in previous years, vintners say.

Answer: Not exactly, but it has been cooler than usual this season in the City by the Bay. As of July 21, the average temperature at the San Francisco's downtown station so far this summer was 58.2 degrees, making it the 25th coldest since reliable record-keeping began 131 years ago and the coolest since the summer of 1999. However, nearby stations that have shorter periods of record, such as Napa, are experiencing its top 3 coldest summers. Records in Napa go back 28 years. Oakland, Hayward and Fremont are the second coldest so far, with 45, 27 and 28 years of records, respectively.

"The cooler-than-historical-average summer in San Francisco can be attributed to a persistent trough of low pressure over California much of the summer," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chad Merrill says, and it's been more about cool days than cool nights.

"It has allowed the marine layer to come inland into the Bay Area on more occasions than historical average, leading to much lower daytime high temperatures. The high temperatures at San Francisco's downtown station have been about 4 degrees below average this summer while the low temperatures have only been 1 degree below average."

Much of the viral buzz for this claim came from this map from the Climate Mapper tool at Climate Toolbox. While the map does show a zero percentile, i.e. number one ranking (dark blue) for some areas of the central California Coast, San Francisco is not included. The time range of the data is 60 days, instead of starting on June 1, and most importantly, the data is limited by its short period of record which starts in 1979.

Bottom line: It's been a cool summer in San Francisco, but not the coldest on record.

A total solar eclipse is coming, and it's going to be the longest one until 2114, lasting up to 6 minutes and 23 seconds. But as spectacular as this sounds, and contrary to some posts circulating on social media, there is still plenty of time to prepare for the event.

Several viral posts on Instagram, X and Facebook have touted the eclipse on Aug. 2 but leave out the important part -- that it's not until 2027. Additionally, it will require some travel to see as the path of totality will cross northern Africa, Saudi Arabia and Yemen.

In 2045, people across North America will be treated to a total solar eclipse similar to that on Aug. 2, 2027. On Aug. 12, 2045, a coast-to-coast total solar eclipse will plunge part of the United States into darkness. It will follow a similar track as the 2017 "Great American Eclipse" but will be significantly longer, lasting 6 minutes and 6 seconds.

Bottom line: There is a total solar eclipse in two years that will be the longest event of its kind anywhere on Earth for 87 years.