Tropical Storm Erin forms, to become first Atlantic hurricane of 2025

Erin has formed in the eastern Atlantic and is forecast to be the first hurricane and first major hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season. Erin will be a long-track storm and will eye the United States next week.

A tropical rainstorm in the eastern Atlantic Ocean has evolved into Tropical Storm Erin, and it may be on its way to a major hurricane this week, AccuWeather experts say. Meanwhile, three additional areas are also being monitored for potential tropical development this week.

Tropical rainstorm evolves into Erin

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms that moved off the African coast last week became a tropical rainstorm Sunday morning near the Cabo Verde Islands. Further strengthening has resulted in its official designation as a tropical storm. Erin is expected to rapidly intensify and become a hurricane—the season's first—later this week and a major hurricane shortly thereafter.

The average date for the first hurricane is Aug. 11, but the first major hurricane typically does not occur until Sept. 1.

"Several factors are working in its favor, including lack of dust, warm water and a lack of disruptive breezes (wind shear)," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chad Merrill.

There is a large plume of dust and dry air ahead of Erin. Provided the moist, dust-free zone the storm is in now continues to move along, further organization and strengthening will continue.

Erin has already moved past the Cabo Verde Islands, located just off the west coast of Africa.

The tropical storm will move westward over the Atlantic this week before it is expected to begin a curve to the northwest from Thursday to Friday. This slight curve should keep the main part of Erin, forecast to be a major hurricane, north of the islands in the northeast Caribbean.

The Windward Islands, as well as Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, could experience some rough surf and seas and perhaps squalls, depending on the structure and exact track.

Residents and visitors in Bermuda and the Bahamas should closely monitor Erin's progress.

"Low wind shear (a lack of disruptive winds) north of the Caribbean and much warmer water could really allow Erin to strengthen rapidly late this week and this weekend, if it survives the next few days," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.

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"Erin will be guided along by the northeast trade winds initially and then the clockwise circulation around the massive Bermuda high over the central Atlantic," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.

"It is the shape of that oceanic high, as well as the approach of a cool front and dip in the jet stream near the Atlantic Coast, that will determine the exact track of the projected major hurricane as it approaches the Atlantic Coast of the United States next week," DaSilva added.

If the Bermuda High remains fairly round or yields to the approaching cool front and jet stream dip, Erin is likely to turn to the north before reaching the U.S.

If the Bermuda high extends well to the west, it could block the potential major hurricane's northward path. In this scenario, the cold front and jet stream dip would be delayed. The result would be a potential track very close to or onshore in the U.S., probably somewhere from the Carolinas north.

"There will be a significant increase in seas, surf and rip currents along the East coast beaches next weekend into the following week," Merrill said. Dangerous conditions may develop in Bermuda and parts of the Bahamas as well.

“Families heading to Atlantic beaches before heading back to school should be cautious and stay in areas with lifeguards on duty," DaSilva added.

Should Erin grow considerably in size and strength, tropical storm conditions may extend outward 100 miles or more. This is why it is important not to just focus on the center of the eye path, but the storm as a whole.

A major hurricane passing 100 miles east of the U.S. or west of Bermuda could still bring tropical storm conditions in terms of wind, heavy seas and perhaps heavy rain. In the U.S., land that extends farther to the east might be the most prone in this case, such as coastal areas of North Carolina, Long Island, New York, and Cape Cod, Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard in New England.

In Canada, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland could be facing more significant impacts from Erin late next week.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic

Across the rest of the Atlantic, three areas of interest are being monitored for tropical development this week.

The first area is over the open central Atlantic, where there is a low risk for tropical development early to midweek. No impacts to land are expected as it tracks northward.

Another area was originally associated with showers and thunderstorms just off the Carolina coast early last week. That cluster of showers and thunderstorms was a couple of hundred miles to the southeast of Nova Scotia on Monday and will spin ashore into Atlantic Canada by midweek.

AccuWeather hurricane experts are also highlighting a low risk for tropical development later this week as another cluster of thunderstorms is expected to move off the coast of Africa. This area will have to be monitored for potential impacts to the Caribbean in the long-range.

So far, the 2025 Atlantic season has had four named storms, including Tropical Storm Dexter, which formed early August and tracked over the open waters of the Atlantic. In addition to Erin, Fernand, and Gabrielle are the upcoming storm names for the 2025 season.

AccuWeather's team of hurricane experts expects 13 to 18 tropical storms, of which seven to 10 will become hurricanes and three to five are likely to evolve into major hurricanes, for the 2025 season.

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