Erin to strengthen, turn northward with dangers on US East Coast
While the most likely track keeps Erin offshore from the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda, shifts in the storm’s path could bring strong winds, heavy rain, and coastal flooding to parts of the eastern United States.
Rip currents are a commonly overlooked beach hazard. Here’s what you can do to stay safe in the water.
Erin is forecast to become a major hurricane and cruise the waters between Bermuda and the United States next week. Even if a direct hit does not occur in the U.S., seas and surf will pose serious threats to coastal areas.
On this wide image showing the Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean, Tropical Storm Erin appears in the lower right of the center. Clusters of thunderstorms being monitored were along the north-central Gulf Coast (far left) and to the far lower right near Africa. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
Erin will begin to strengthen before and while passing just to the north of the Leeward Islands in the northeastern Caribbean late this week and this weekend.
"Environmental conditions north and northeast of the Lesser Antilles in the Caribbean will be very favorable for intensification and, as a result, Erin is expected to become a major hurricane this weekend," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
How quickly a turn to the north occurs later this weekend to early next week will determine Erin's proximity to the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda.
"Interests along the East Coast of the United States, the Bahamas and in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin, as a shift in the track could bring direct impacts to these areas," DaSilva said.
The concern includes residents and visitors in these areas, cruise lines, and shipping and fishing ventures that could cross paths with a powerful hurricane.
The track scenarios for next week
The most likely track will be a few hundred miles off the U.S. coast.
However, there is the possibility that an area of high pressure, known as the Bermuda high, will extend well to the west. This, paired with a cool front and dip in the jet stream over the eastern U.S., could also allow Erin to track significantly farther to the west.
This farther west scenario would mean a greater risk of strong winds, rain and coastal flooding to areas of land in the U.S. that extend out into the ocean--such as eastern North Carolina, Long Island, New York and southeastern New England.
In the worst-case scenario for the U.S., Erin would be guided directly onshore, packing high winds, flooding rain and storm surge flooding.
One sure thing with Erin: Building surf
As Erin strengthens, it is likely to grow in size. This sprawl will act like a plunger on the Atlantic, causing large swells to propagate for hundreds of miles.
As swells approach coastal areas, waves in the surf zone along with returning currents, known as rip currents, will grow in strength and number.
Breakers and rip currents will pose serious threats to swimmers spreading from the Florida east coast, northward to New England as the week progresses. The increase surf action will lead to some beach erosion and coastal flooding during high tide.
Bermuda impacts
A track farther to the east could put Bermuda directly in the path of Erin, which could move through as a major hurricane. A major hurricane has winds of 111 mph or greater.
Strict building codes on Bermuda's islands should minimize damage from a direct hurricane strike, but a Category 3 or more intense hurricane could still cause significant damage and power outages.
Erin is on a pace to pass near Bermuda or just to the west from Tuesday to Wednesday of next week.
Erin may swipe Atlantic Canada
From late next week to the following weekend, Erin will track over the waters near Atlantic Canada and may pose a threat from heavy rain and strong winds.
Regardless, rough seas will spread from waters around Nova Scotia to Newfoundland.
Hurricane season nearing its peak
“At this point in the hurricane season, everyone needs to be prepared. Make sure your emergency supplies are stocked up, review your safety plans and evacuation routes, and check your insurance coverage," DaSilva advised. The climatological peak of hurricane season is just four weeks away.
There are additional areas being monitored for tropical development across the Atlantic basin this week and the next.
On Tuesday, an area of thunderstorms was along the north-central Gulf Coast. Until this mass of moisture and weak circulation moves inland, there is a small chance of tropical development.
Thousands of miles to the east, over the central and eastern Atlantic, more areas of low pressure, called tropical waves, were moving westward from Africa. These waves are being monitored for development.
Dry air has hindered development in this region for much of the summer so far. But Erin seems to have displaced dry air and dust, leaving a moist zone in its wake. This could be just enough to spark the development of one or more tropical waves in the coming days.
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