Caribbean, Bahamas on alert as Erin set to strengthen into hurricane
Tropical Storm Erin is forecast to rapidly strengthen into a hurricane this weekend as it nears the northeastern Caribbean and Bahamas, raising concerns for strong winds, heavy rain, and dangerous surf along the islands.
Bermuda is in the path for Tropical Storm Erin. Here is how Bermuda maintains minimal destruction and deaths while being in Hurricane Alley.
Tropical Storm Erin could rapidly strengthen into a powerful hurricane this weekend as it approaches the northern Caribbean and Bahamas, but it could still be a couple of days before it reaches hurricane status, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.
Erin has already proven its potential by producing deadly flash flooding in the Cabo Verde Islands this past weekend, around the time it developed.
This close-up image of Erin as a tropical storm was captured at midday on Wednesday, Aug. 13, 2025. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
"The tropical storm was struggling with a vast area of dust and dry air, as well as relatively cool water and some disruptive breezes, known as wind shear, as of Tuesday," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
The critical minimum water temperature for tropical development and strengthening is about 80 F. Water temperatures in the zone where Erin was located were in the middle to upper 70s. There is a chance that Erin could lose some wind intensity and organization over the next 24 hours, but it is likely to only be temporary, as the storm was beginning to move into warm waters as of midweek.
"Later this week Erin will move into a zone with warmer water and much lower wind shear," Rayno said. "Once that happens, the strengthening process will resume and may occur rapidly."
The weak state of Erin is allowing the storm to move along on a westerly track. The longer this occurs, the greater the potential impacts will be on the islands of the northeastern Caribbean and the Bahamas. If the center were to continue due west, because of its current latitude, it would slice directly across the Leeward Islands.
An increasing northwestward drift, then a northward turn, is anticipated as Erin gains some strength. How quickly that begins, along with the overall strength of Erin, will determine the amount of wind, downpours and thunderstorms that occur in the northeastern islands of the Caribbean.
"Our team of meteorologists at AccuWeather, led by Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva, remains highly concerned for a period of rapid strengthening from late this week to early next week," Rayno said.
AccuWeather meteorologists expect Erin to become the season's first Atlantic hurricane and reach the intensity of a Category 3 or stronger (111 mph or greater) on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
As winds increase, waves will propagate outward from the center. Over the deep sea, these will be large swells. As the swells near the northern coasts of the Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the northeast-facing shores of the Bahamas, dangerous surf and strong rip currents will result.
The amount of wind and rain that occurs over the northeastern Caribbean islands and the Bahamas will depend on Erin's size, intensity and its ability to pull moisture northward from the Caribbean.
A smaller center may correspond to little or no rainfall. A more sprawled-out center with a plume of tropical moisture could lead to torrential downpours with dangerous flash flooding and mudslides in some areas.
A general 1-2 inches of rain from squalls is forecast from parts of the Leewards to Puerto Rico, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 7 inches.
Most wind gusts will focus on thunderstorms that expand westward south of Erin's main circulation.
The forecast rainfall, wind intensity and overall impact in the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico could change depending on the track and strength of Erin.
Beyond the Caribbean, impacts on Bermuda, the U.S. and Atlantic Canada will depend on when Erin turns to the north and the forecast hurricane's intensity.
At the very least, building seas will pose threats for small craft and larger ocean-going vessels over the western Atlantic. Increasing surf and rip currents will pose dangers for swimmers over much of the U.S. Atlantic coast and Bermuda.
In the wake of Erin, multiple areas of low pressure, known as tropical waves, will be monitored for the development of additional storms.
A cluster of thunderstorms in the southwestern Caribbean could quickly ramp up into a tropical depression or storm as it travels over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in the next day or two.
Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.
Report a Typo
