Brewing storm to bring flooding, coastal hazards to Southeast
Forecasters say that as the storm hugs the Atlantic coast later this week, it could potentially turn tropical and take the name Adria.
By
Jake Sojda, AccuWeather meteorologist
Updated Nov 4, 2021 12:24 AM EST
A developing storm that unleashed heavy rain and thunderstorms across the southern Plains will shift eastward late in the week, putting residents from the central Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas on guard for deteriorating conditions.
The stormy pattern will begin to unfold as an area of high pressure moves from the northern Plains toward the Northeast on Thursday, ushering in a reinforcing shot of cold air across much of the East. Along the southern periphery of the cooler air, a front will set up along the Gulf and Atlantic coastline. This front will serve as a path for the approaching storm to travel.
As the storm takes shape, Florida will be one of the first places to feel its full impact. Areas of rain and thunderstorms will develop Thursday night across northern Florida before spreading across much of the peninsula Friday. Flooding will be the primary concern from the persistent downpours, but some thunderstorms could also become locally severe.
Outdoor events could be delayed or postponed due to the downpours and threat of lightning. Heavy rain can also slow travel on roadways by reducing visibility and increasing the risk of hydroplaning at high speeds. Those looking to begin their weekend at the beach may get chased back inside by the rain and storms.
"November is the driest month of the year in a large part of Florida and rainfall amounts from this storm could reach, and even double average monthly November levels," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Houk.
For some coastal areas, gusty northeast winds will also whip up rough surf and the threat for rip currents. This will primarily target the east-facing coasts from Florida to the Outer Banks in North Carolina. The wind direction will be directed offshore for coastal areas along the eastern Gulf of Mexico, lessening any impacts.
Another factor will come into play, especially in the Carolinas, which could lead to significant coastal flooding. Higher-than-normal tides known as king tides are expected at the end of this week along the Southeast coast. The very high astronomical tides, which on their own usually cause minor coastal flooding, along with the onshore flow and rough surf from the storm could produce significant coastal flooding.
Places like Charleston, South Carolina, and Savannah, Georgia, could see flooded marinas as well as streets and buildings right along the coast. If heavy rain also reaches the Carolina coasts, flooding could be exacerbated, especially at high tide, as rainwater isn't able to effectively runoff into the ocean.
"Beach erosion will also be a significant concern, especially across the Outer Banks as [the region] may receive the brunt of strong onshore winds and rough surf," explained AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bob Smerbeck.
However, there is the chance that coastal flooding will be the only concern for much of the Southeast and mid- Atlantic coast, with most of the rain remaining offshore.
Exactly where the front becomes established and where the center of the storm takes shape will make a big difference for Georgia and the Carolinas, according to Smerbeck.
"If the center stays just a little farther offshore, very little or no rain may fall over land north of the Florida Peninsula," Smerbeck explained. "However, with a slight shift closer to the coast, areas from Savannah to the Outer Banks could get drenched later Friday into the first half of the weekend."
AccuWeather forecasters say there is another possibility that may unfold with the storm.
"The storm could become detached from the front just long enough to become an organized tropical feature for a short period of time," said AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
While this would not result in a significant change in potential impacts, it could push forecasters to dip into the supplemental name list for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. The list was introduced by the World Meteorological Organization last spring as a replacement for the Greek alphabet which meteorologists previously used to name tropical storms once the designated list of storm names was exhausted. Wanda, which formed this past weekend, was the last name on the original Atlantic name list for 2021.
The first name on the supplemental list is Adria.
"Even if it does become tropical for a time, eventually this system looks to become a strong but non-tropical, nor'easter-type storm next week as it tracks toward Atlantic Canada," Kottlowski said.
While this storm pounds coastal portions of the Southeast, much of the rest of the region will hardly even be able to tell that there's a storm nearby. A large area of high pressure across the rest of the region will lead to a chilly but otherwise dry and rather sunny end to the week. Most of the Southeast will top out with highs in the 50s and 60s F Friday and Saturday. Temperatures in some places will be 10-15 degrees below normal on both days.
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In Atlanta, highs are expected to remain in the 50s until Saturday. The normal high temperature for this time of the year there is in the upper 60s. Some parts of northern Georgia, upstate South Carolina and western North Carolina could receive a frost late Friday night into early Saturday morning.
By Sunday, the coastal storm will have moved out of the region, and the Southeast will start to experience a moderating trend which will last into next week.
"After this storm moves out, high pressure looks to be in control for a while, bringing dry weather, sunshine and near-normal temperatures for early November through much of next week," Smerbeck said.
For the latest weather news check back on AccuWeather.com. Watch the AccuWeather Network on DIRECTV, Frontier, Spectrum, fuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios. AccuWeather Now is now available on your preferred streaming platform.
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News / Severe Weather
Brewing storm to bring flooding, coastal hazards to Southeast
Forecasters say that as the storm hugs the Atlantic coast later this week, it could potentially turn tropical and take the name Adria.
By Jake Sojda, AccuWeather meteorologist
Updated Nov 4, 2021 12:24 AM EST
A developing storm that unleashed heavy rain and thunderstorms across the southern Plains will shift eastward late in the week, putting residents from the central Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas on guard for deteriorating conditions.
The stormy pattern will begin to unfold as an area of high pressure moves from the northern Plains toward the Northeast on Thursday, ushering in a reinforcing shot of cold air across much of the East. Along the southern periphery of the cooler air, a front will set up along the Gulf and Atlantic coastline. This front will serve as a path for the approaching storm to travel.
As the storm takes shape, Florida will be one of the first places to feel its full impact. Areas of rain and thunderstorms will develop Thursday night across northern Florida before spreading across much of the peninsula Friday. Flooding will be the primary concern from the persistent downpours, but some thunderstorms could also become locally severe.
Outdoor events could be delayed or postponed due to the downpours and threat of lightning. Heavy rain can also slow travel on roadways by reducing visibility and increasing the risk of hydroplaning at high speeds. Those looking to begin their weekend at the beach may get chased back inside by the rain and storms.
"November is the driest month of the year in a large part of Florida and rainfall amounts from this storm could reach, and even double average monthly November levels," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Houk.
For some coastal areas, gusty northeast winds will also whip up rough surf and the threat for rip currents. This will primarily target the east-facing coasts from Florida to the Outer Banks in North Carolina. The wind direction will be directed offshore for coastal areas along the eastern Gulf of Mexico, lessening any impacts.
Another factor will come into play, especially in the Carolinas, which could lead to significant coastal flooding. Higher-than-normal tides known as king tides are expected at the end of this week along the Southeast coast. The very high astronomical tides, which on their own usually cause minor coastal flooding, along with the onshore flow and rough surf from the storm could produce significant coastal flooding.
Places like Charleston, South Carolina, and Savannah, Georgia, could see flooded marinas as well as streets and buildings right along the coast. If heavy rain also reaches the Carolina coasts, flooding could be exacerbated, especially at high tide, as rainwater isn't able to effectively runoff into the ocean.
"Beach erosion will also be a significant concern, especially across the Outer Banks as [the region] may receive the brunt of strong onshore winds and rough surf," explained AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bob Smerbeck.
However, there is the chance that coastal flooding will be the only concern for much of the Southeast and mid- Atlantic coast, with most of the rain remaining offshore.
Exactly where the front becomes established and where the center of the storm takes shape will make a big difference for Georgia and the Carolinas, according to Smerbeck.
"If the center stays just a little farther offshore, very little or no rain may fall over land north of the Florida Peninsula," Smerbeck explained. "However, with a slight shift closer to the coast, areas from Savannah to the Outer Banks could get drenched later Friday into the first half of the weekend."
AccuWeather forecasters say there is another possibility that may unfold with the storm.
"The storm could become detached from the front just long enough to become an organized tropical feature for a short period of time," said AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
While this would not result in a significant change in potential impacts, it could push forecasters to dip into the supplemental name list for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. The list was introduced by the World Meteorological Organization last spring as a replacement for the Greek alphabet which meteorologists previously used to name tropical storms once the designated list of storm names was exhausted. Wanda, which formed this past weekend, was the last name on the original Atlantic name list for 2021.
The first name on the supplemental list is Adria.
"Even if it does become tropical for a time, eventually this system looks to become a strong but non-tropical, nor'easter-type storm next week as it tracks toward Atlantic Canada," Kottlowski said.
While this storm pounds coastal portions of the Southeast, much of the rest of the region will hardly even be able to tell that there's a storm nearby. A large area of high pressure across the rest of the region will lead to a chilly but otherwise dry and rather sunny end to the week. Most of the Southeast will top out with highs in the 50s and 60s F Friday and Saturday. Temperatures in some places will be 10-15 degrees below normal on both days.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
In Atlanta, highs are expected to remain in the 50s until Saturday. The normal high temperature for this time of the year there is in the upper 60s. Some parts of northern Georgia, upstate South Carolina and western North Carolina could receive a frost late Friday night into early Saturday morning.
By Sunday, the coastal storm will have moved out of the region, and the Southeast will start to experience a moderating trend which will last into next week.
"After this storm moves out, high pressure looks to be in control for a while, bringing dry weather, sunshine and near-normal temperatures for early November through much of next week," Smerbeck said.
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For the latest weather news check back on AccuWeather.com. Watch the AccuWeather Network on DIRECTV, Frontier, Spectrum, fuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios. AccuWeather Now is now available on your preferred streaming platform.
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