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White Christmas hopes hinge on holiday week storm and warmer air

Published Dec 17, 2025 2:14 AM EST

AccuWeather® Global Weather Center – Dec. 17, 2025 - The return of warmer air and a storm that AccuWeather long-range experts are predicting ahead of the holiday will play a pivotal role in which parts of the Midwest and Northeast will have snow on the ground on Christmas morning this year.

> The central and northern Rockies, Cascades, Sierra Nevada, parts of the Midwest, and interior Northeast have a 75% probability or higher of a white Christmas this year

> The southern U.S., parts of the central U.S., and the coastal Northeast have lower odds of a white Christmas

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“The start of the winter season was remarkably cold and snowy for millions of people this year. That frigid and stormy pattern is not sticking around for the holidays,” AccuWeather® Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok said.

A white Christmas is typically defined as having at least an inch of snow on the ground at 7 a.m. local time on Dec. 25, which includes snow already on the ground or any fresh snow on Christmas morning.

“More than 45 percent of America was blanketed in snow in early December. Snow lovers may be left disappointed in many towns this Christmas. Pacific air flowing over the Rockies will likely warm and melt snow in a lot of places right before the holiday,” Pastelok said. “Areas with several inches of compact snow on the ground and colder air may luck out and experience a white Christmas.”

Areas where a white Christmas are most likely

A white Christmas is all but certain for snow lovers in parts of the central and northern Rockies this year.

The higher elevations from Wyoming and Montana down through Utah and Colorado look solidly locked in for a white Christmas, with a 40–75 percent chance of snow on the ground for areas just outside of the mountains.

Many areas downwind of the Great Lakes and within the typical lake-effect snowbelts are also expected to see a white Christmas. Some areas in the higher elevations of the Appalachians also have a better chance of a white Christmas, especially in New England.

Occasional cold may push into the Northeast at times before Christmas, which will help preserve snow on the ground in some places.

Where a warmup will melt snow before the holidays

AccuWeather® long-range experts say the return of warmer air before Christmas will bring a dramatic shift in temperatures for much of the central and eastern U.S.

“The first half of the month felt like Christmastime in areas that saw early snow and bitterly cold air. There was snow on the ground from Texas and Oklahoma to Missouri, Tennessee and Kentucky during the first week of December. Much of that snow is now long gone,” Pastelok said. “The fresh blanket of snow from the winter storm on Dec. 13 and 14 in southern coastal areas of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic could melt away in a lot of places as temperatures rise before Christmas.”

The return of warmer air, fluctuating temperatures, and rain falling on top of snow on the ground could increase the risk of avalanches in parts of the Northwest and Rockies ahead of the holidays.

Holiday week storm

AccuWeather® long-range experts say a storm is expected in the days leading up to Christmas, which could bring some snow or ice to parts of the Great Lakes and interior Northeast.

“A storm could bring a fresh burst of snow just in time for Christmas morning. The exact track of the storm will determine which areas could be blanketed in fresh snow, and which towns could be soaked by rain instead,” Pastelok said. “At this time, it looks like areas north of Interstate 80 could see some snow. Mostly rain is expected south of Interstate 80.”

The back end of the storm could bring a few snow showers or flurries to some areas that experienced mostly rain during the upcoming storm.

“It may not be a full inch of snow on the ground to officially qualify as a white Christmas, but flurries or a fresh dusting of snow can help set the holiday mood,” Pastelok said.

TheAccuWeather 2025-2026 U.S. Winter Forecast, first issued in October, accurately predicted a cold, snowy, and stormy start to the season for much of the central and eastern U.S.