Larger wildfires fueled by drought and heat expected across the U.S. in 2026

 
AccuWeather® Global Weather Center – April 22, 2026 – AccuWeather long-range experts say the total number of wildfires in the United States may dip slightly lower this year compared to last year. However, AccuWeather experts warn the fires that do ignite are more likely to grow rapidly and burn more land, increasing the risk of widespread smoke, air quality issues and costly impacts.

> The exclusive AccuWeather 2026 U.S. Wildfire Forecast predicts 5.5-8 million acres of land to burn across the country this year, compared to the historical average of 7 million acres

> 500,000-750,000 acres of land are expected to burn across California in 2026, compared to the historical average of 1 million acres

> Larger, more destructive wildfires are likely this year, with the interior Northwest and the Rockies regions facing the highest risk

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“Expanding drought, combined with heat, wind, and dry vegetation, is a dangerous combination,” said AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok. “Similar to the benchmark wildfire season of 2020, conditions later this year could support any fires that ignite to spread faster, grow larger, and become more difficult to contain,” Pastelok warned. “Larger and more intense wildfires can also lead to widespread smoke impacts across the central and eastern United States, as millions of people experienced in 2023.”

“Even if the total number of fires across the country is lower than last year, that does not mean the overall risk is reduced. We expect hundreds of thousands, if not millions, more acres to burn this year,” Pastelok added.

AccuWeather long-range experts have identified the interior Northwest and the Rockies as the regions facing the highest wildfire risk this summer and fall. Fires that ignite in remote, densely forested terrain during hot, dry and windy conditions can grow rapidly and are often exceptionally difficult to contain.

“Wildfire risk is an increasing concern nationwide,” Pastelok said. “Brush fires and wildfires impacted communities across the country last year. Wildfires were reported in all 50 states in 2024.”

AccuWeather 2026 U.S. Wildfire Forecast by the Numbers

• AccuWeather forecasts 65,000 to 80,000 wildfires this year, compared to 77,850 in 2025 and a historical average of 68,707

• 5.5 to 8 million acres are expected to burn across the U.S. this year, compared to 5.1 million acres in 2025 and a historical average of 7 million

• 500,000 to 750,000 acres are predicted to burn in California this year, compared to 525,223 acres in 2025 and the historical average of 1,002,822 acres

AccuWeather long-range experts say the forecast this year reflects a pattern where fewer ignitions can still lead to a destructive fire season when conditions favor rapid growth and spread.

“Snowpack across much of the interior Northwest was well below the historical average this winter. The record-shattering Southwest heat wave in March triggered rapid snowmelt,” Pastelok explained. “The lack of moisture from melting snow and runoff this spring means grasses and vegetation are drying out faster this year.”

Wildfire Smoke Impacts

Wind can transport smoke from large wildfires hundreds to thousands of miles away, reducing air quality and even slightly lowering daytime temperatures under a hazy sky.
 
“Winds high in the atmosphere can carry wildfire smoke far from the western half of the country and western Canada over the Midwest and into the Great Lakes and Northeast,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said. “We could see rounds of hazy and smoky sky conditions later this year over cities in the Midwest and Northeast.”

AccuWeather long-range experts predict 11 to 15 million acres (4.5 to 6 million hectares) to burn across Canada in 2026. While lower than last year’s staggering 22 million acres (8.9 million hectares), it remains well above the historical average of 5.7 million acres (2.3 million hectares).

How a Warming Climate is Increasing Wildfire Risk in America

The trend of increasing heat and extreme drought conditions are increasing the risk of wildfires, especially across the western U.S.

“Expanding drought and persistent heat are creating a landscape that is more vulnerable to large, fast-moving wildfires,” AccuWeather Climate Expert and Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said. “A developing El Niño may influence storm tracks and bring some relief in parts of the West, but drought and heat will remain the dominant drivers of wildfire risk this year. In some regions, it can even introduce more ignition risks with lightning.”

An AccuWeather climate study released in January found that rising temperatures, declining relative humidity, and decreasing precipitation across the contiguous U.S. may increase the risk and frequency of wildfires if the trends continue.

“The burning of fossil fuels is increasing greenhouse gases and raising global temperatures. That added heat is drying out vegetation and lengthening wildfire seasons,” Anderson explained. “Reducing those emissions is an important part of limiting how much wildfire risk continues to grow in the years ahead.”

Regional Forecast Breakdown 

California

• Fire risk will increase through summer, especially in interior and lower elevations

• Early-season heat and limited snowpack melt will accelerate drying

• Coastal fire risk may increase earlier this year due to a weaker marine layer influence

• The dry season in Southern California may be interrupted by rounds of showers and storms starting later in June

• Brief vegetation growth from late storms may add fuel later

• Peak wildfire risk is expected late summer into fall, especially during offshore wind events

Southwest, Rockies, Great Basin, Northwest

• Drought, heat and below-average snowpack make this region the primary area of concern for wildfires this year

• Monsoon expected to bring mixed impacts: moisture can reduce risk, yet lightning can spark fires

• Northwest risk ramps up in mid- to late summer as fuels dry and snowpack disappears

• Increased tropical activity in the eastern Pacific, combined with a developing El Niño pattern, may bring occasional moisture and rainfall into parts of the Southwest later this summer, which could help reduce wildfire risk

Plains

• Highest risk of fires is expected across western Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and eastern Colorado

• Fire danger will spike during windy, low-humidity periods

• The eastern Plains less at risk due to higher humidity and storms

Southeast and Florida

• Early-season fire risk will be elevated where drought lingers 

• Risk may decrease later as thunderstorms and the odds of tropical moisture increase

Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast

• Generally lower wildfire risk due to frequent rain and humidity

• Localized risk in the Shenandoah Valley and Blue Ridge Mountains

• Any fires would likely be brief and tied to short-term dry, windy conditions

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